Brick Tamland Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Matthew East said the same in his blog this morning; no real cold no real warmth. This thread is dying a bit and probably rightly so. No wintry pattern change for several weeks it seems. http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ East said the trough looks to diminsh if not vanish all together by the end of December. We need that to happen before we have a chance of seeing any snow here. I just hope the -NAO stays around long enough into January and doesn't go positive after the trough gets out of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Van Denton ,at FOX8,last night was talking abuout around mid Dec the cold may be coming .He also spoke of all the cold building in Canada would be coming down soon. Trends are encouraging. Check out the 240 panel on the 12z form yesterday and 0z from last night: The Cold building up in Canada is gonna be impressive. 12z Wed Run/Euro 0Z Run last night/ Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Allan Huffman is giving a glimmer of hope and reminds us that just last week it looked like a cold pattern was locked in for the East in December, only to flip this week. So maybe it will flip just as quickly in the 2nd half of December. http://www.examiner.com/article/raleigh-10-day-weather-forecast-and-national-weather-discussion-1?CID=examiner_alerts_article Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Allan Huffman is giving a glimmer of hope and reminds us that just last week it looked like a cold pattern was locked in for the East in December, only to flip this week. So maybe it will flip just as quickly in the 2nd half of December. http://www.examiner.com/article/raleigh-10-day-weather-forecast-and-national-weather-discussion-1?CID=examiner_alerts_article Meanwhile, it's still cold outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The 12z isn't condusive to great joy in mby. Meteostar can't find an 850 colder than +2, and the most rain offered within the "remotely possible" time frame is .02 Of course at the goofy end we get covered up with storm after storm, but the only thing I see that is believable is the weak front dragging through, and washing out, near mid week like the one we just got. Of course that one dropped rain here in tenths, not hundredths, so I'll take it, should it verify. I sure would love to see an active southern stream in a split flow show up soon. I don't even worry about a phase in Dec. I want the gulf rain at this point! I'm happy to leave the phase for Jan. when climo says maybe, and doesn't just laugh, down here, anyway Not discounting the remarkable Cold Rain Xmas, of course..which by the way, now the ice is broken, I see becoming a more frequent occurance....at least I don't think Atl/Griffin will have to wait another 150 years, lol. Tony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Maybe this is a dumb question, but can someone explain why Feb ( and even March ) seem to be snowier in the south than Dec??? I ask this because in many areas, including Atlanta, Dec and Jan are the two coldest months on average, so it would make sense to me that those two months would also give us the best chances for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Maybe this is a dumb question, but can someone explain why Feb ( and even March ) seem to be snowier in the south than Dec??? I ask this because in many areas, including Atlanta, Dec and Jan are the two coldest months on average, so it would make sense to me that those two months would also give us the best chances for snow. I was unaware that December averaged colder than February for GSP. In fact, I thought Jan/Feb held that honor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Maybe this is a dumb question, but can someone explain why Feb ( and even March ) seem to be snowier in the south than Dec??? I ask this because in many areas, including Atlanta, Dec and Jan are the two coldest months on average, so it would make sense to me that those two months would also give us the best chances for snow. My best guesses 1) Upper atmosphere may actually average colder in Feb. than Dec. and colder in Mar. vs. Nov....a lag of sorts...If any met. knows, I'd like to see a reply from him about this. I was under the impression that Feb. is actually the coldest in the upper atmosphere. Avg. storm track may be furthest south in Feb. as a result. Dec. is, indeed, slightly colder at the surface than Feb. in many SE locations including KATL. 2) Feb. a bit wetter than Dec. Mar. much wetter than Nov. liquid precipwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 It is so quite here its depressing. I guess we'll just have to wait day after day until something starts changing in the atmosphere or at least some fantasy storms. can't believe there isn't any fantasy storms not showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 how often does Robert update his weather on his site? just wandering haven't seen anything for today and just joined yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 how often does Robert update his weather on his site? just wandering haven't seen anything for today and just joined yesterday. He has a 11/29 update under Current Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 cheer up all this winter could have many surprises in store for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 It is so quite here its depressing. It's quite quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 cheer up all this winter could have many surprises in store for us Yes, like the 60's/70's we will have the next 10 days, we better get used to that this winter :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yes, like the 60's/70's we will have the next 10 days, we better get used to that this winter :-) Bollocks. Prove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Maybe this is a dumb question, but can someone explain why Feb ( and even March ) seem to be snowier in the south than Dec??? I ask this because in many areas, including Atlanta, Dec and Jan are the two coldest months on average, so it would make sense to me that those two months would also give us the best chances for snow. To illustrate snowstorm's point, here are the # of major (3.5"+) S and/or IP storms by month since 1879 at KATL (about one every four years): Nov.: 0 Dec.: 4 (last one in 1917!! KATL is sooooo overdue for a Dec. major S/IP..it has been 95 years!) Jan.: 14 Feb.: 11 Mar.: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The 00Z Euro looks better in the 6-10. If we could just get rid of that pig SE ridge! I'm not much into pork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Pork is the best meat but understand your thinking!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 End of frame...large area of snow cover north-west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 The 00Z Euro looks better in the 6-10. If we could just get rid of that pig SE ridge! I'm not much into pork. pig ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 30, 2012 Author Share Posted November 30, 2012 6z GFS brings back the wet pattern by mid Dec for the south as a UL drops to S CA and the wave train commences. Great split flow pattern. Both the GFS and Euro bring on a stout +PNA ridge by Dec 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The Bastobert train is preparing to leave the station!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Yeah, models definitely sniffing out some sort of change in the Dec 8-10 onward time period. I got into it and showed quite a few charts in today's video/ discussion....it's on the blog linked below. 6z GFS is rather fun-looking later on.... but it's obviously still out in fantasyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 pig ridge? PNA Ridge maybe, http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNH240.gif http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH240.gif And now the Euro ensemble mean http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The Bastobert train is preparing to leave the station!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I think Tarheel is referencing that fact that both you and Bastardi have been harping on a pattern change or at least moving to a more favorable pattern by the mid to end of December. I'm on the train for sure just waiting for it to leave the station! Good to see you posting on here Robert, thanks as always for all your valuable information but here and on your site! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 The Bastobert train is preparing to leave the station!!! What does that even mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I think Tarheel is referencing that fact that both you and Bastardi have been harping on a pattern change or at least moving to a more favorable pattern by the mid to end of December. I'm on the train for sure just waiting for it to leave the station! Good to see you posting on here Robert, thanks as always for all your valuable information but here and on your site! Apparently the other 98.99% also forecasting pretty much the same end result - a colder/snowier SE winter - were forgotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Don't let Brick see the 6Z. He might pass out....Arctic highs moving across the northern tier, precipitation generating waves moving across the southern tier, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 And now the Euro ensemble mean http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH240.gif And the Euro weeklies come in to throw a wet blanket on the "pattern change"...there is not much of any belows in the east on Week 3 and 4...there is not much support for much in the way of Greenland blocking. Not a forecast...but an interesting change to be watched for consistency.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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