packbacker Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 That is why I am worried, too. It's not like I am being pessimistic for no reason. Can things change? Sure. But right now things do not look good for winter. It's not that bleak, I think we will have a somewhat "normal" winter, not the extreme cold or extreme warmth of the past few winters. I bet we get a couple of good shots and we will need to get lucky, as usual, for the SE. Maybe we can get a 01/02 repeat where we get one big storm and torch the rest of the winter :-)....that would actually be a dream scenario for me...but I think realistically we get a couple of shots at small 2-4" events, with the fast flow of the pacific it will be hard to get big storms. Now if we can spike a +PNA and get the blocking just right we could get lucky and get a 6"+ event, but not likely, IMO. Or we could be starting a stretch of winters where we essentially get blanked.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 It's not that bleak, I think we will have a somewhat "normal" winter, not the extreme cold or extreme warmth of the past few winters. I bet we get a couple of good shots and we will need to get lucky, as usual, for the SE. Maybe we can get a 01/02 repeat where we get one big storm and torch the rest of the winter :-)....that would actually be a dream scenario for me...but I think realistically we get a couple of shots at small 2-4" events, with the fast flow of the pacific it will be hard to get big storms. Now if we can spike a +PNA and get the blocking just right we could get lucky and get a 6"+ event, but not likely, IMO. Or we could be starting a stretch of winters where we essentially get blanked.... I would take one huge event, but I think we have to get real lucky to get anything. I think when we all saw what happened with Sandy and then the nor'easter a week later we thought setups like that would keep repeating for winter and we would get a bombing even off the coast, but then things went really quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I would take one huge event, but I think we have to get real lucky to get anything. I think when we all saw what happened with Sandy and then the nor'easter a week later we thought setups like that would keep repeating for winter and we would get a bombing even off the coast, but then things went really quite. Why do you want a setup where a storm rides so far off the coast you don't get anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Why do you want a setup where a storm rides so far off the coast you don't get anything? I wouldn't. But if it were more inland and bombing right off the coast, that would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 That is why I am worried, too. It's not like I am being pessimistic for no reason. Can things change? Sure. But right now things do not look good for winter. Bollocks. Nothing else to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I wouldn't. But if it were more inland and bombing right off the coast, that would be nice. Can you tell me using real and specific scientific data why that won't happen this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Actually it wasn't at all. The PNA was often neutral to slightly negative during that winter and we were in a major Nina. Both of which would normally not be conductive for snow and cold in the SE. Same in of Dec 2010, the PNA was deeply negative during the Christmas week cold/snow blitz. The AO/NAO overwhelmed the Pacific those years. I am sure 09/10 was a perfect storm with -EPO/+PDO/+PNA/-NAO/-AO. We won't have the PDO/PNA/EPO on our side for the bulk of this winter, hopefully we can get it in spurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Actually it wasn't at all. The PNA was often neutral to slightly negative during that winter and we were in a major Nina. Both of which would normally not be conductive for snow and cold in the SE. Same in of Dec 2010, the PNA was deeply negative during the Christmas week cold/snow blitz. The AO/NAO overwhelmed the Pacific those years. This is true. I remember right before the Christmas snow the mets were saying to enjoy this because winter was ending the first if the year. I didn't think they expected the Atlantic to outdo the -PNA. Then we had the big storm a week into the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Actually it wasn't at all. The PNA was often neutral to slightly negative during that winter and we were in a major Nina. Both of which would normally not be conductive for snow and cold in the SE. Same in of Dec 2010, the PNA was deeply negative during the Christmas week cold/snow blitz. The AO/NAO overwhelmed the Pacific those years. Not correct....for 09/10 the PDO was positive, PNA averaged positive for that winter, and of course -AO/-NAO. For the boxing day storm the PNA dropped to neutral and we had -AO/-NAO. And for January the PNA was hugely positive. PNA Chart http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Jan/Feb PNA Index - 2010 1.25 0.58 PDO Index http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Not correct....for 09/10 the PDO was positive, PNA averaged positive for that winter, and of course -AO/-NAO. For the boxing day storm the PNA dropped to neutral and we had -AO/-NAO. And for January the PNA was hugely positive. PNA Chart http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table Jan/Feb PNA Index - 2010 1.25 0.58 PDO Index http://jisao.washing.../pdo/PDO.latest In December of 09 the east coast got a historic snowstorm including parts of NC...for this month the PNA was pretty much negative just before the storm and only slightly positive (really neutral) during and after it. Here is the break down for Dec./Jan./Feb. of 09 with the PNA. (I'm counting anything under 1. as neutral if that's not correct let me know). ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii Dec. 11 negative 2 positive 18 neutral Jan. 5 negative 9 positive 17 neutral Feb. 6 negative 2 positive 20 neutral As for the boxing day storm of 2010 here is the PNA leading up to it and during it 2010 12 10 -1.387 2010 12 11 -1.292 2010 12 12 -0.940 2010 12 13 -0.787 2010 12 14 -1.097 2010 12 15 -1.085 2010 12 16 -1.013 2010 12 17 -1.276 2010 12 18 -1.493 2010 12 19 -1.670 2010 12 20 -2.114 2010 12 21 -2.131 2010 12 22 -1.961 2010 12 23 -1.630 2010 12 24 -1.004 2010 12 25 -0.456 2010 12 26 -0.284 2010 12 27 -0.117 2010 12 28 -0.100 2010 12 29 -0.232 2010 12 30 -0.040 2010 12 31 -0.022 For Jan of 2011 the breakdown is as follows for the PNA Negative 6 Positive 10 Neutral 15 I would hardly call that hugely positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Good data, Burger. One thing to point out that we all should remember, there is a tendency to focus on numerical values and/or index charts. But not all +PNAs and -NAOs are created equal. The synoptic configurations that drive the state, amplitude, and configurations of these indicies make all the difference in the world when it comes to the sensible weather impacts. It's much more important to look at the H5 data. I know I'm mostly preaching to the choir, but sometimes the choir gets a little off-key. . Anyway, thanks for sharing the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I think it was 10/11 that had the massive PNA that stretched almost to Barrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Exactly. I looked at the daily PNA index and found that several large snow events here happened during a - to neutral PNA pattern. For instance Jan 28th-30th 2010 was a huge winter storm. The PNA leading up to that even was neutral area from January 20th-30th. Had a big snow event December 18th, PNA the PNA was slightly negative/neutral in the week leading up to the event. Also had a snow event here in late February 2010 with a slightly negative PNA. The only big snow of 2009-10 here with a PNA of more than +.500 was around Valentines day when we got about 5 inches with a +.700ish PNA. In December of 09 the east coast got a historic snowstorm including parts of NC...for this month the PNA was pretty much negative just before the storm and only slightly positive (really neutral) during and after it. Here is the break down for Dec./Jan./Feb. of 09 with the PNA. (I'm counting anything under 1. as neutral if that's not correct let me know). ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii Dec. 11 negative 2 positive 18 neutral Jan. 5 negative 9 positive 17 neutral Feb. 6 negative 2 positive 20 neutral As for the boxing day storm of 2010 here is the PNA leading up to it and during it 2010 12 10 -1.387 2010 12 11 -1.292 2010 12 12 -0.940 2010 12 13 -0.787 2010 12 14 -1.097 2010 12 15 -1.085 2010 12 16 -1.013 2010 12 17 -1.276 2010 12 18 -1.493 2010 12 19 -1.670 2010 12 20 -2.114 2010 12 21 -2.131 2010 12 22 -1.961 2010 12 23 -1.630 2010 12 24 -1.004 2010 12 25 -0.456 2010 12 26 -0.284 2010 12 27 -0.117 2010 12 28 -0.100 2010 12 29 -0.232 2010 12 30 -0.040 2010 12 31 -0.022 For Jan of 2011 the breakdown is as follows for the PNA Negative 6 Positive 10 Neutral 15 I would hardly call that hugely positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 The PNA from December 2010. 2010 12 1 -0.605 2010 12 2 -0.734 2010 12 3 -0.947 2010 12 4 -1.201 2010 12 5 -1.192 2010 12 6 -0.773 2010 12 7 -0.610 2010 12 8 -0.738 2010 12 9 -1.059 2010 12 10 -1.387 2010 12 11 -1.292 2010 12 12 -0.940 2010 12 13 -0.787 2010 12 14 -1.097 2010 12 15 -1.085 2010 12 16 -1.013 2010 12 17 -1.276 2010 12 18 -1.493 2010 12 19 -1.670 2010 12 20 -2.114 2010 12 21 -2.131 2010 12 22 -1.961 2010 12 23 -1.630 2010 12 24 -1.004 2010 12 25 -0.456 2010 12 26 -0.284 2010 12 27 -0.117 2010 12 28 -0.100 2010 12 29 -0.232 2010 12 30 -0.040 2010 12 31 -0.022 December 2010 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 In December of 09 the east coast got a historic snowstorm including parts of NC...for this month the PNA was pretty much negative just before the storm and only slightly positive (really neutral) during and after it. Here is the break down for Dec./Jan./Feb. of 09 with the PNA. (I'm counting anything under 1. as neutral if that's not correct let me know). ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii Dec. 11 negative 2 positive 18 neutral Jan. 5 negative 9 positive 17 neutral Feb. 6 negative 2 positive 20 neutral As for the boxing day storm of 2010 here is the PNA leading up to it and during it 2010 12 10 -1.387 2010 12 11 -1.292 2010 12 12 -0.940 2010 12 13 -0.787 2010 12 14 -1.097 2010 12 15 -1.085 2010 12 16 -1.013 2010 12 17 -1.276 2010 12 18 -1.493 2010 12 19 -1.670 2010 12 20 -2.114 2010 12 21 -2.131 2010 12 22 -1.961 2010 12 23 -1.630 2010 12 24 -1.004 2010 12 25 -0.456 2010 12 26 -0.284 2010 12 27 -0.117 2010 12 28 -0.100 2010 12 29 -0.232 2010 12 30 -0.040 2010 12 31 -0.022 For Jan of 2011 the breakdown is as follows for the PNA Negative 6 Positive 10 Neutral 15 I would hardly call that hugely positive. Big difference if PNA is -0.9 or +0.9 but your considering that neutral, I guess technically (1) is the barrier but when you have to look at the ones that are neutral positive as a major plus. Plus the PDO is huge for this area, it was positive in 2009/2010, won't be this year. For the record the below are numbers are the averages for January 2010 and January 2011. If the PNA was at neutral +0.9 for this winter we will do great, if it's at neutral -0.9, it won't. My response was to simply say the PNA was not negative in 2009/2010 and in Jan 2011, as it average positive. Not that the PNA was everything...the PNA was neutral/positive last January and we torched. January 2010 - PNA averaged +1.25 January 2011 - PNA averaged +1.29 http://www.cpc.ncep....ent.ascii.table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I would use -0.5 to 0.5 to define neutral. This site from poster Ellinwood (Met) uses those ranges for neutral and has teleconnection temperature correlations for NAO/PNA/EPO/WPO - http://madusweather.com/teleconnections/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Granted, y'all have been talking about daily PNA values and not monthly values, but I still think -0.5 to 0.5 makes sense for neutral...IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 By the way, the 18Z GFS is just ho hum. Not bad, not great in the LR. No snow for us, that's for sure, but not a torchy look either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 By the way, the 18Z GFS is just ho hum. Not bad, not great in the LR. No snow for us, that's for sure, but not a torchy look either. Probably a solution that is more likely to happen in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Probably a solution that is more likely to happen in the LR. You are likely correct, sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 I am sure 09/10 was a perfect storm with +PDO/+PNA/-NAO-/-AO/-EPO. We won't have the PDO/PNA/EPO on our side for the bulk of this winter, hopefully we can get it in spurts. Actually it wasn't at all. The PNA was often neutral to slightly negative during that winter and we were in a major Nina. Both of which would normally not be conductive for snow and cold in the SE. Same in of Dec 2010, the PNA was deeply negative during the Christmas week cold/snow blitz. The AO/NAO overwhelmed the Pacific those years. Just a note here to say that 09/10 was an El Nino winter, not a La Nina. 09/10 was as good as it gets for the southeast...west-based mod/strong Nino with stout subtropical jet stream, -QBO with low solar, major Eurasian snowcover in Oct, monster negative AO and NAO through the winter. Everybody didn't cash in big (though many did), but that's as good a setup as one could ever wish for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Granted, y'all have been talking about daily PNA values and not monthly values, but I still think -0.5 to 0.5 makes sense for neutral...IMO I'd agree with this for the PNA especially. It rarely ever gets to + or -2 while the NAO and AO get to -3 or -4 sometimes. The PNA in January 1985 was actually less than +1 during the January 18-24th deep freeze. But the NAO and AO were deeply negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Just a note here to say that 09/10 was an El Nino winter, not a La Nina. 09/10 was as good as it gets for the southeast...west-based mod/strong Nino with stout subtropical jet stream, -QBO with low solar, major Eurasian snowcover in Oct, monster negative AO and NAO through the winter. Everybody didn't cash in big (though many did), but that's as good a setup as one could ever wish for. Yes, it was, it was the 2010-2011 winter with the La nina. But the original point of my post was that the PNA wasn't great during the coldest and snowiest periods of either 2009-2010 or 2010-2011 and that the AO and NAO are king makers in the Eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Yes, it was, it was the 2010-2011 winter with the La nina. But the original point of my post was that the PNA wasn't great during the coldest and snowiest periods of either 2009-2010 or 2010-2011 and that the AO and NAO are king makers in the Eastern US. The AO and NAO are closer to king makers for New England. For the SE US, the PNA/PDO is quite a bit more important than it is for the NE in relation to the AO/NAO for cold. I roughly estimate that the PDO and the AO/NAO are about of equal importance. There is a pretty strong correlation of warmth/cold and the -PNA/+PNA for the SE US. I think that trying to minimize the importance of the PNA/PDO for the SE US is misleading when it comes to getting cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 In December of 09 the east coast got a historic snowstorm including parts of NC...for this month the PNA was pretty much negative just before the storm and only slightly positive (really neutral) during and after it. Here is the break down for Dec./Jan./Feb. of 09 with the PNA. (I'm counting anything under 1. as neutral if that's not correct let me know). ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii Dec. 11 negative 2 positive 18 neutral Jan. 5 negative 9 positive 17 neutral Feb. 6 negative 2 positive 20 neutral This is a deceptive post. The winter's cold for 2009-10 was aided by a predominant +PNA/+PDO. The actual days of snowstorms might not have been on actual +PNA days (that's not as important since a relaxing of the +PNA during a +PNA dominated pattern may actually be more favorable for snow since WSW or even SW 500 mb moisture laden flow is often present during the snow, itself), but the +PNA dominated pattern is what helped deposit the cold air in the first place in combination with blocking throughout that winter. Moreover, your numbers for Dec. 2009 are off. 11 neg. & only 2 positive? So, you're counting any negatives as negative but counting only +1+ as positive? In the famous words of John McEnroe, you cannot be serious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 This is a deceptive post. The winter's cold for 2009-10 was aided by a predominant +PNA/+PDO. The actual days of snowstorms might not have been on actual +PNA days (that's not as important since a relaxing of the +PNA during a +PNA dominated pattern may actually be more favorable for snow since WSW or even SW 500 mb moisture laden flow is often present during the snow, itself), but the +PNA dominated pattern is what helped deposit the cold air in the first place in combination with blocking throughout that winter. Moreover, your numbers for Dec. 2009 are off. 11 neg. & only 2 positive? So, you're counting any negatives as negative but counting only +1+ as positive? In the famous words of John McEnroe, you can't be serious! Fair enough...next time I'll leave the stats to the experts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Back to the future, it looks like the overnight guidance keeps things fairly seasonable over the next 10-15 days after the brief warm-up this weekend/early next week. It doesn't look like a cold and stormy pattern is set to lock in during the medium term, but it also doesn't look like any sustained warm periods will lock in either. The west coast trough looks to weaken and retrograde a bit, which I think is a good sign for later next month. Also good is the cold and snow pack build-up in Canada. Overall though, nothing at all to be overly excited or worried about.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Back to the future, it looks like the overnight guidance keeps things fairly seasonable over the next 10-15 days after the brief warm-up this weekend/early next week. It doesn't look like a cold and stormy pattern is set to lock in during the medium term, but it also doesn't look like any sustained warm periods will lock in either. The west coast trough looks to weaken and retrograde a bit, which I think is a good sign for later next month. Also good is the cold and snow pack build-up in Canada. Overall though, nothing at all to be overly excited or worried about.... Van Denton ,at FOX8,last night was talking abuout around mid Dec the cold may be coming .He also spoke of all the cold building in Canada would be coming down soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Back to the future, it looks like the overnight guidance keeps things fairly seasonable over the next 10-15 days after the brief warm-up this weekend/early next week. It doesn't look like a cold and stormy pattern is set to lock in during the medium term, but it also doesn't look like any sustained warm periods will lock in either. The west coast trough looks to weaken and retrograde a bit, which I think is a good sign for later next month. Also good is the cold and snow pack build-up in Canada. Overall though, nothing at all to be overly excited or worried about.... Matthew East said the same in his blog this morning; no real cold no real warmth. This thread is dying a bit and probably rightly so. No wintry pattern change for several weeks it seems. http://mattheweast.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 29, 2012 Share Posted November 29, 2012 Van Denton ,at FOX8,last night was talking abuout around mid Dec the cold may be coming .He also spoke of all the cold building in Canada would be coming down soon. I miss watching Van Denton. Used to live in Burlington and grew up watching Frank Deal. I remember when Van joined WGHP. He used to post on Eastern. ^ Also, I will check out Matt East's blog. Can't watch his video from work since youtube is blocked, so I don't go to his site as much anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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