Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I don't get all this talk of "wasting" a good pattern. Weather doesn't work that way. In '09 the pattern came quick and never let up until around Feb. In '10 it was the same thing. The weather is not a person with emotions that says, "I made it cold early so I'll be sure to stay warm the rest of winter". I want a good pattern to start as soon as we can get it. Burger, I agree with your overarching premise. But it usually works out for our area that favorable patterns tend to wax and wane over the course of the season. From my point of view, I would rather not see a favorable pattern set up in late November and then see it give way to an unfavorable pattern from mid-late December through mid January. I'd rather have us be in an unfavorable pattern during the climo least likely time and have that give way to a more favorable pattern during a more favorable climo period for winter wx....not that I have any choice in the matter or that weather always behaves the same way, as far as pattern cycles go. We may lock cold and stay cold (which I would prefer) or lock warm and stay warm. Like you said, weather is not a sentient being. But given my past experience, I'd rather see us have a bad pattern now and transition to a better one later on in December. If things work out that way, I think our odds of a winter storm would go way up versus the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I disagree.... Spitting in the face of climo is not a good idea....09/10 was a special case...it is not typical in our part of the world at least lately....4-6 weeks of cold weather during the coldest average time of the year is better than having it in Nov or Mar/Apr... Jinx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 He makes good points but "waisting cold" is pretty silly to me. Think about it, you only have to have a 3 to 5 day period where it does get cold and something comes along and makes a winter storm. Yeah these warm periods can last for several weeks but that doesn't mean at some point during that time something does not happen. And if it does, these no snow/ice forecasts go out the window. The best out there have busted badly due to such instances and it's happened quite a few times. And what irritates me to a degree is if you have 30 days of nothing but warm weather in november with all the cold bottled up in canada or somewhere else, you know what people will say? Winter's over already. I just don't think forecasts are very reliable past 7 to 10 days. Forecasting weather a month to 3 months in advance when we have problems getting it right a day or two ahead of time speaks volumes to me. Well I'm sure I've pissed off all those who try their hardest to get these long range forecasts right I know they put a ton of work and research into it..and they deserve tons of respect for what they do. And these same people will allow future long range forecasts to be more accurate. They are pioneers in their field. It is only a matter of probability. We've had plenty of memorable snow storms occur during relatively mild winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 No, but favorable patterns are terminal and, if you read don sutherland's piece about Arctic blocking cycles, once it starts up, they typically last 30 days on average. '09 was one of those exceptional years where it never really let up at all for the entire duration of DJF. I agree with this. It seems unusual that a favorable pattern lasts the whole winter season. Usually there are swings one way or another in my memory. Getting the favorable swing in January is what I'm hoping for. It's like some complex "The Price is Right" game trying to hit the pattern at the right time of year. Meterological Plinko. In regard to long range forecasting, don sutherland was pretty spot on last year. There was always the cry of "the pattern is changing", "stratospheric warming", etc however each month he'd break down analogs and statistics that showed how each month would turn out warm and he was right each time. I'll be following his posts closely this year too with interest. So far he's indicated that the AO/NAO are probably going to be negative but that doesn't address the problem we're having with the pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 It is only a matter of probability. We've had plenty of memorable snow storms occur during relatively mild winters. Exactly and that's all I'm saying. Thats why people shouldn't be so discouraged by all the doom and gloom talk when it comes to long range forecasting. But Hell I'm pessimistic by nature when it comes to winter weather anyway here. It's just people taking these super long range forecasts so seriously, as if it's a lock, gets to me...and the same goes to those who forecast a cold and/or snow winter too and those who get all excited and, again, as if it's a lock or something. Hell it's even worse when people do forecast a cold one because it's what they want to hear. Well, I've said my peace for the most part. Plus I'm sure I've annoyed those who work so hard on long range forecasts enough lol. I hope I haven't though. It's just one man's opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I'm thinking this is going to be another boring winter around here. Sorry, couldn't resist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Burger, I agree with your overarching premise. But it usually works out for our area that favorable patterns tend to wax and wane over the course of the season. From my point of view, I would rather not see a favorable pattern set up in late November and then see it give way to an unfavorable pattern from mid-late December through mid January. I'd rather have us be in an unfavorable pattern during the climo least likely time and have that give way to a more favorable pattern during a more favorable climo period for winter wx....not that I have any choice in the matter or that weather always behaves the same way, as far as pattern cycles go. We may lock cold and stay cold (which I would prefer) or lock warm and stay warm. Like you said, weather is not a sentient being. But given my past experience, I'd rather see us have a bad pattern now and transition to a better one later on in December. If things work out that way, I think our odds of a winter storm would go way up versus the opposite. I don't disagree at all with you or Bob obviously, and if Don S. is correct which I didn't realize I can see how it may be important to get blocking later. From how I understood it typically blocking would get into a bit of a repeating pattern over most winters with breaks and degrees of how strong the blocking is. We've had some extreme winters on both sides so I guess the filters a lot of peoples thinking including mine. For instance if people who claim they don't want to cold air early it would seem it should work opposite..which last year it didn't. As Bob and Wow both stated 09 and 10 were both on the other extreme which makes you hope for something earlier I suppose. Either way it seems many of us on here get a little to out of control with the emotions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I don't get all this talk of "wasting" a good pattern. Weather doesn't work that way. In '09 the pattern came quick and never let up until around Feb. In '10 it was the same thing. The weather is not a person with emotions that says, "I made it cold early so I'll be sure to stay warm the rest of winter". I want a good pattern to start as soon as we can get it. We are not going to do get another 09/10, that's for sure, so this winter we will probably get a couple of good periods (5-7 days) of a good "wintery" pattern due to the crappy pacific. I don't want one of those 5-7 day periods in early December, climo always rules for this area. We want things to setup for us in early January to mid-February for our prime winter climo. But I agree, I don't control the weather so if/in when it sets up we have to get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 It's the long range Euro but what the heck. The arctic moves into the central plains/south central Canada. And the gulf of Alaska low retrogrades west towards the Aleutians and gives us a positive PNA. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 12z GFS looks like a very normal pattern for the SE US. There will be cold periods, followed by warm-ups, frontal passage rains, some cold chasing rain situations, and then cold again. Very normal; not good (no snow) but not bad (no heat). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BNAwx Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 12z GFS looks like a very normal pattern for the SE US. There will be cold periods, followed by warm-ups, frontal passage rains, some cold chasing rain situations, and then cold again. Very normal; not good (no snow) but not bad (no heat). Its ensembles are heading in the right direction though. Looks like we finally get rid of the stubborn omega ridge (block) around the Aleutians and more ridging downstream off the west coast. Perhaps this ridging will continue to move east as time goes by. Not perfect by any means but getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I dont understand why people are being negative about the LR its NOVEMBER good lord..... 12z euro looked good fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Let's keep the good discussion going...I created the 2013/14 Winter Outlook thread if you have nothing meaningful to comment for the upcoming winter. My previous post is what the U.S. snow-cover will look like from Dec 18-28th if its right...looks good? First panel looks epic... Where did you get that? Bastardi on facebook or Ryan Maue? Looks like a screenshot from weatherbell,the high res is on JB's twitter account. I don't know how reliable the CFS is so I don't really care what it says...First ens is obviously an outlier. It's not talked about enough to get my attention. Maybe some experienced with the model can shed some light? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I dont understand why people are being negative about the LR its NOVEMBER good lord..... 12z euro looked good fwiw Because by this time we are usually seeing East Coast fantasy storms in the LR, whether it be for the SE or nor'easters for the NE, we're usually seeing something on ANY model by this time during good winters (and by good I mean storms spread throughout winter, not just one big on in late jan/feb) The fact that we're not seeing fantasy storms in the LR, along with mid December warm ups of 10-15+ over normal has some worried. I think the worry is justified in that sense. In 3 days we can no longer say "It's just November"...But, for the record, I'm not worried. Hell I was still hopeful in Feb/March when the models advertised another cold shot and potential storm that never came last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Because by this time we are usually seeing East Coast fantasy storms in the LR, whether it be for the SE or nor'easters for the NE, we're usually seeing something on ANY model by this time during good winters (and by good I mean storms spread throughout winter, not just one big on in late jan/feb) The fact that we're not seeing fantasy storms in the LR, along with mid December warm ups of 10-15+ over normal has some worried. I think the worry is justified in that sense. In 3 days we can no longer say "It's just November"...But, for the record, I'm not worried. Hell I was still hopeful in Feb/March when the models advertised another cold shot and potential storm that never came last year. I am not expecting snow in December but one reason I am starting to turn negative is a lot of people pointed out is these patterns tend to relax and then re-establish, if the pacific is this bad all winter and we just get a few days relaxation than we are in trouble. Plus, we have been incredible dry, not good. For example if the PNA was fluctuating from positive to say neutral and blocking would establish and relax and we just haven't timed it just right yet that would be be different. The fact is the PNA has been fluctuating from negative to neutral, which is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 The fact is the PNA has been fluctuating from negative to neutral, which is not good. This is common during -PDO's, especially strong ones, since there is partial correlation of PDO and PNA near/during winter at least. A rise in the PDO closer to neutral would tend to help and make it more of a mix. With an only modestly negative PDO along with the help of a solid -NAO/-AO averaged over DJF, the winter would actually have a shot at being near normal or even cooler than normal, especially assuming the maintenance of a middle to high end neutral positive ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Where did you get that? Bastardi on facebook or Ryan Maue? Looks like a screenshot from weatherbell,the high res is on JB's twitter account. I don't know how reliable the CFS is so I don't really care what it says...First ens is obviously an outlier. It's not talked about enough to get my attention. Maybe some experienced with the model can shed some light? Pretty sure he got it from Brand Panovich off of FB... http://i.imgur.com/ca7DB.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 From Mid Atlantic Thread: Euro made a nice move away from warmth. -10 850's almost over dc thurs next week. Very cold aimass entering the n plains day 10. -30 850's just north of MN. The 500 height config definitely looks like the airmass will sink SE. At this point the "torch" during the first 10 days of Dec look more like a Bic lighter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 There have been a lot of bad winters that had lots of long range fantasy storms. I think people need to erase the memories of last winter and not judge this winter by what's showing up or not showing up in the fantasy range. There is no evidence whatsoever that suggests we are not going to have plenty of cold and snow chances this winter. And there's no evidence that guarantees such an outcome either...there rarely ever is. Right now, looking at the available data, the most reasonable expectation for December is variability for our area. The latest guidance supports this over the torching shown a few cycles ago. Looking at the historical evidence put forth by Don, Larry, and others, the odds do not favor a terrible, uneventful, warm winter. Looking at the current seasonal trends, the odds do not favor a terrible, uneventful, warm winter. We may get that, but the odds do not favor that outcome. And notice that I did not say that the odds do favor a wall to wall cold and stormy winter with record cold and snows. They do not. So, if anyone wants to worry about the winter, here at the end of November (or next week in early December), then feel free to do so. But it is not highly grounded factual data, nor is it supported by scientific evidence. And if such worrying is caused by an expectation of nonstop cold and snow in the southeast, then that's just not grounded in reality and there's nothing anyone can say or do to make you feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Because by this time we are usually seeing East Coast fantasy storms in the LR, whether it be for the SE or nor'easters for the NE, we're usually seeing something on ANY model by this time during good winters (and by good I mean storms spread throughout winter, not just one big on in late jan/feb) The fact that we're not seeing fantasy storms in the LR, along with mid December warm ups of 10-15+ over normal has some worried. I think the worry is justified in that sense. In 3 days we can no longer say "It's just November"...But, for the record, I'm not worried. Hell I was still hopeful in Feb/March when the models advertised another cold shot and potential storm that never came last year. Judging by recent progged "warm ups", that's too hefty in my opinion. I may be wrong. I do know that last year I didn't have to switch my HVAC over to heat as early (not even close actually), which is an improvment at this point. We'll know if the worry is justified soon enough. I know I keep harping on it, but the reality is that December is just not a cold month for most in the SE not residing in elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 This is common during -PDO's, especially strong ones, since there is partial correlation of PDO and PNA near/during winter at least. A rise in the PDO closer to neutral would tend to help and make it more of a mix. With an only modestly negative PDO along with the help of a solid -NAO/-AO averaged over DJF, the winter would actually have a shot at being near normal or even cooler than normal, especially assuming the maintenance of a middle to high end neutral positive ENSO. I am sure 09/10 was a perfect storm with +PDO/+PNA/-NAO-/-AO/-EPO. We won't have the PDO/PNA/EPO on our side for the bulk of this winter, hopefully we can get it in spurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Pretty sure he got it from Brand Panovich off of FB... http://i.imgur.com/ca7DB.png Gotcha. Thanks. I'm just wondering where people are posting WB maps. Wish this forum had the same rules as facebook. I want to post maps from weatherbell but then I'm like Oh yeah, paid service...forgot. Just have to describe it. Kinda silly. So what if I post all the maps I want to from weatherbell on FB, then someone screenshots them, and posts them here? haha. I guess I'll stop while I'm ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 This is common during -PDO's, especially strong ones, since there is partial correlation of PDO and PNA near/during winter at least. A rise in the PDO closer to neutral would tend to help and make it more of a mix. With an only modestly negative PDO along with the help of a solid -NAO/-AO averaged over DJF, the winter would actually have a shot at being near normal or even cooler than normal, especially assuming the maintenance of a middle to high end neutral positive ENSO. I am sure 09/10 was a perfect storm with -EPO/+PDO/+PNA/-NAO/-AO. We won't have the PDO/PNA/EPO on our side for the bulk of this winter, hopefully we can get it in spurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I am sure 09/10 was a perfect storm with -EPO/+PDO/+PNA/-NAO/-AO. We won't have the PDO/PNA/EPO on our side for the bulk of this winter, hopefully we can get it in spurts. Just curious, but are you basing that primarily on the Nino state? I'm seriously asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Gotcha. Thanks. I'm just wondering where people are posting WB maps. Wish this forum had the same rules as facebook. I want to post maps from weatherbell but then I'm like Oh yeah, paid service...forgot. Just have to describe it. Kinda silly. So what if I post all the maps I want to from weatherbell on FB, then someone screenshots them, and posts them here? haha. I guess I'll stop while I'm ahead. Yea I got it off of Facebook somewhere...it's being shared by people like crazy. We need a share button on here or something. Lots of cool stuff out there we can't post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Just curious, but are you basing that primarily on the Nino state? I'm seriously asking. Partly, the PDO has been forecasted to stay negative. GaWx knows this much better than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Yea I got it off of Facebook somewhere...it's being shared by people like crazy. We need a share button on here or something. Lots of cool stuff out there we can't post. Well FWIW, the 06z run of the same model, for the same time period, shows snowcover of about say, 80% of the CONUS. Imagine the bottom half of an oval stretching from Norcal, austin, atl, to the outer banks of NC. Yep that's what ALL 4 of the panels look like now. Not a single panel without snow in several SE states. Another reason why I wonder about this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Robert's discussion today on the projected snow pack in Canada for December looks promising. If the Pacific and Atlantic cooperate from mid-month on, and if this snow pack builds in Canada and the Northern tier like the GFS is forecasting, that cold air won't modify too much coming South! It's worth the money to sign up at WxSouth. Good stuff every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I am not expecting snow in December but one reason I am starting to turn negative is a lot of people pointed out is these patterns tend to relax and then re-establish, if the pacific is this bad all winter and we just get a few days relaxation than we are in trouble. Plus, we have been incredible dry, not good. For example if the PNA was fluctuating from positive to say neutral and blocking would establish and relax and we just haven't timed it just right yet that would be be different. The fact is the PNA has been fluctuating from negative to neutral, which is not good. That is why I am worried, too. It's not like I am being pessimistic for no reason. Can things change? Sure. But right now things do not look good for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 That is why I am worried, too. It's not like I am being pessimistic for no reason. Can things change? Sure. But right now things do not look good for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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