franklin NCwx Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 6z GFS ensembles 96 hours http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH096.gif 240 hours http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif 384 hours http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/06zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH384.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Encouraging 6z GFS ensembles 96 hours http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH096.gif 240 hours http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH240.gif 384 hours http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH384.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Robert did a great writeup on the warm up and cool down for December. www.wxsouth.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 6z GFS ensembles 96 hours http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH096.gif 240 hours http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH240.gif 384 hours http://raleighwx.ame...nomalyNH384.gif Wow that looks nice. Do I see both a -NAO and a +PNA establishing there? Only Issue is it's the GFS. I want the EURO to show this and I'll bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Wow that looks nice. Do I see both a -NAO and a +PNA establishing there? Only Issue is it's the GFS. I want the EURO to show this and I'll bite. It's the GFS ensemble mean, I would much rather it show up on the ensemble mean than the euro op. I don't have access to the euro ensembles after 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Wow that looks nice. Do I see both a -NAO and a +PNA establishing there? Only Issue is it's the GFS. I want the EURO to show this and I'll bite. No, the NAO looks to be neutral, the heights are higher over greenland, but just barely. The pacific doesn't look awful, but doesn't look good, kind of meh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 It's the GFS ensemble mean, I would much rather it show up on the ensemble mean than the euro op. I don't have access to the euro ensembles after 240 hours. ECMWF EPS after 240 looks bad. Trough west, tall ridge east. 294hr has 10-15+ above normal temps in Montreal to give you a visual. Cold comes back by 318 (Dec 11) FWIW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Alan sticking to the cold staying away thru mid-month http://www.examiner.com/article/raleigh-10-day-weather-forecast-and-national-weather-discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 ECMWF EPS after 240 looks bad. Trough west, tall ridge east. 294hr has 10-15+ above normal temps in Montreal to give you a visual. Cold comes back by 318 (Dec 11) FWIW.... Good news is that we don't want a good pattern next week, I personally hope things don't come together until after Dec 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Good news is that we don't want a good pattern next week, I personally hope things don't come together until after Dec 20th. Yep, lets let the cold build until mid month and then lets take our chances with cold over Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Good news is that we don't want a good pattern next week, I personally hope things don't come together until after Dec 20th. I don't get all this talk of "wasting" a good pattern. Weather doesn't work that way. In '09 the pattern came quick and never let up until around Feb. In '10 it was the same thing. The weather is not a person with emotions that says, "I made it cold early so I'll be sure to stay warm the rest of winter". I want a good pattern to start as soon as we can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Either way if you believe LR GFS the 12z is bringing it around 252. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 12z GFS brings the cold in faster on this run then modulates further into the LR...Overall what we want to see IMHO though I haven't looked at 5H maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I don't get all this talk of "wasting" a good pattern. Weather doesn't work that way. In '09 the pattern came quick and never let up until around Feb. In '10 it was the same thing. The weather is not a person with emotions that says, "I made it cold early so I'll be sure to stay warm the rest of winter". I want a good pattern to start as soon as we can get it. Don't interrupt this panic with logic! The nerve of some people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 The ECMWF monthlies taken verbatim do not look good through December 28 for North Carolina. Hoping they change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 I don't get all this talk of "wasting" a good pattern. Weather doesn't work that way. In '09 the pattern came quick and never let up until around Feb. In '10 it was the same thing. The weather is not a person with emotions that says, "I made it cold early so I'll be sure to stay warm the rest of winter". I want a good pattern to start as soon as we can get it. No, but favorable patterns are terminal and, if you read don sutherland's piece about Arctic blocking cycles, once it starts up, they typically last 30 days on average. '09 was one of those exceptional years where it never really let up at all for the entire duration of DJF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 No, but favorable patterns are terminal and, if you read don sutherland's piece about Arctic blocking cycles, once it starts up, they typically last 30 days on average. '09 was one of those exceptional years where it never really let up at all for the entire duration of DJF. Interesting to know about the blocking....but outside of last year in the SE wouldn't we probably have equal chances just based on climatology even if great blocking doesn't really entrench for 30 days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Alan sticking to the cold staying away thru mid-month http://www.examiner....ther-discussion And this part is really discouraging. My general thinking is this. My winter forecast research and so far the pattern this fall and progged early winter pattern, leads me to think the AO is going to be in a negative state this winter. Which means cold air will be generally shoved down from the pole into either or both Europe/Asia and North America. However, the NAO being negative is far from certain and a weak –NAO may not be enough to consistently deliver cold air to the East. The failure of weak El Nino to truly take hold and a continue –PDO means that the Gulf of Alaska trough is probably going to be a feature hard to get rid of this winter. If all this is true, this could be a winter that ends up cold for much of Canada and at times bitterly cold for parts of the Western/Central US as this cold air periodically spills into the picture. If this type of pattern hold, then the East would probably see more mild than cold days, but will likely see some intrusions of arctic air and when the NAO is negative bitter cold and storminess. I am not ready by any stretch to say this is the pattern that will result and thus already obsolete my winter forecast. However, this is looking to potentially be the pattern as we head into the 2nd week and middle part of December. Whether it holds into late December or January is not clear yet. IF the NAO does go negative, then it would be a cold pattern more focused over the central and eastern US. If the NAO is neutral to positive, it could turn out to be a warm winter for much of the eastern half of the US. I'm thinking this is going to be another boring winter around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 And this part is really discouraging. I'm thinking this is going to be another boring winter around here. Yup. Winter cancel... time for you to leave until next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Just calling it like I see it. I think people were encouraged by the mild summer and fall, and thinking it can't get any worse than last winter. The negative NAO is encouraging, but like Allan said, "the failure of the weak El Nino to truly take hold and a continue –PDO means that the Gulf of Alaska trough is probably going to be a feature hard to get rid of this winter." I just don't think the trough is going to go away enough or have the right timing for much of anything to happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I don't get all this talk of "wasting" a good pattern. Weather doesn't work that way. In '09 the pattern came quick and never let up until around Feb. In '10 it was the same thing. The weather is not a person with emotions that says, "I made it cold early so I'll be sure to stay warm the rest of winter". I want a good pattern to start as soon as we can get it. Good post. I've never understood this superstition either. fwiw, so far athens is -2.4 degrees below normal for november. GSO is -4.9. The important thing is larry has proven the old saying of "the weather in november, winter will remember" has been proven right a good part of the time by Larry. Of course, it doesn't work all the time to say the least but it's a lot more encouraging that november has been below normal to me. However there are others that see negative signs this year but last year where a lot of forecasters/mets were saying it would be an OK winter. I don't recall any met saying it would be so warm and terrible. Yet we know how last winter worked out. No disrespect to those who spend so much time and effort in long range forecasting but as I've said many times I'm not a fan of long range forecasting..unless the signals are just over whelming do I think people have a decent or even good shot at getting right. Despite all the hard work and research done by many mets and all these indexes everyone uses, it's not much better than a coin a flip of a coin imo a lot of the times. So I would say to those who get depressed at some of these long range forecasts, take into consideration the past history of long range forecasting and especially winter forecasts. Plus, it can be a relatively warm winter but you only have to have a few winter events to make it a pretty good one as far as winter precip goes. And no matter how many indexes and so forth people use, no one can forecast such events weeks or months ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Good post. I've never understood this superstition either. fwiw, so far athens is -2.4 degrees below normal for november. GSO is -4.9. The important thing is larry has proven the old saying of "the weather in november, winter will remember" has been proven right a good part of the time by Larry. Of course, it doesn't work all the time to say the least but it's a lot more encouraging that november has been below normal to me. However there are others that see negative signs this year but last year where a lot of forecasters/mets were saying it would be an OK winter. I don't recall any met saying it would be so warm and terrible. Yet we know how last winter worked out. No disrespect to those who spend so much time and effort in long range forecasting but as I've said many times I'm not a fan of long range forecasting..unless the signals are just over whelming do I think people have a decent or even good shot at getting right. Despite all the hard work and research done by many mets and all these indexes everyone uses, it's not much better than a coin a flip of a coin imo a lot of the times. So I would say to those who get depressed at some of these long range forecasts, take into consideration the past history of long range forecasting and especially winter forecasts. Plus, it can be a relatively warm winter but you only have to have a few winter events to make it a pretty good one as far as winter precip goes. And no matter how many indexes and so forth people use, no one can forecast such events weeks or months ahead of time. I hope Winter doesn't remember the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Let's keep the good discussion going...I created the 2013/14 Winter Outlook thread if you have nothing meaningful to comment for the upcoming winter. My previous post is what the U.S. snow-cover will look like from Dec 18-28th if its right...looks good? First panel looks epic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Alan sticking to the cold staying away thru mid-month http://www.examiner....ther-discussion I agree with Alan that the failure of the weak Nino is a significant negative for the upcoming winter as compared to what might have been. Not only are weak Ninos the coldest of all of the ENSO phases on average, but it might have also helped to raise the PDO and keep it either only mildly negative or allow it to rise to positive in the means for the winter. Without it, it is going to be quite the task to get it to rise back up significantly enough to be a net positive for the winter. So it is kind of a double-whammy as far as I'm concerned. The PDO has fallen back a bit over the last month or so. After rising to near -0.50 in late Oct., I'm estimating that it is now near the -1.25 to -1.50 range. I'm still hopeful that it can rise back to at least the -0.50 range for DJF averaged, but am now seriously doubting it will make it all the way to positive territory. Edit: I'm not at all giving up on a near normal or even a somewhat colder than normal winter. Cold would require a pretty -NAO/-AO averaged for DJF. (Then again, even then the not so good Pacific (-PDO) would still be doing battle with the -NAO/-AO.) Regardless, with the failure of the weak Nino and with the expected lack of a +PDO this winter, I no longer have much hope for a memorably cold/historically cold winter like 2009-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Just calling it like I see it. Which is why you should move away from the keyboard...you just regurgitate what you see from a negative point of view....it is useless. Either you are a troll or the living incarnation of Eeyore...either way you add no value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I don't get all this talk of "wasting" a good pattern. Weather doesn't work that way. In '09 the pattern came quick and never let up until around Feb. In '10 it was the same thing. The weather is not a person with emotions that says, "I made it cold early so I'll be sure to stay warm the rest of winter". I want a good pattern to start as soon as we can get it. I disagree.... Spitting in the face of climo is not a good idea....09/10 was a special case...it is not typical in our part of the world at least lately....4-6 weeks of cold weather during the coldest average time of the year is better than having it in Nov or Mar/Apr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Which is why you should move away from the keyboard...you just regurgitate what you see from a negative point of view....it is useless. Either you are a troll or the living incarnation of Eeyore...either way you add no value. I thought the whole point of this thread was to discuss the long range forecasts. That is what I am doing. At first they seemed promising, but now they are becoming more and more discouraging. It's not like I am the only one seeing this. GaWx just posted about the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I hope Winter doesn't remember the drought. Very true lol. I remember larry's research on the temps but not sure about the precip part of it. The drought and lack of precip may end up being the real problem..who knows. Just to be clear though, I'm not saying people who are not seeing good signs are not right. They absolutely could be. I'm just saying there is always a chance and a lot of times it ends up blowing up peoples long range forecasts...especially individual storms which no one can predict so far out. I hope people who put so much effort, time, and research into long range forecasts don't take offense to what I'm saying, but I've just seen too many forecasts bust to take them very seriously at all. This is just my 2 cents though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 No, but favorable patterns are terminal and, if you read don sutherland's piece about Arctic blocking cycles, once it starts up, they typically last 30 days on average. '09 was one of those exceptional years where it never really let up at all for the entire duration of DJF. He makes good points but "waisting cold" is pretty silly to me. Think about it, you only have to have a 3 to 5 day period where it does get cold and something comes along and makes a winter storm. Yeah these warm periods can last for several weeks but that doesn't mean at some point during that time something does not happen. And if it does, these no snow/ice forecasts go out the window. The best out there have busted badly due to such instances and it's happened quite a few times. And what irritates me to a degree is if you have 30 days of nothing but warm weather in november with all the cold bottled up in canada or somewhere else, you know what people will say? Winter's over already. I just don't think forecasts are very reliable past 7 to 10 days. Forecasting weather a month to 3 months in advance when we have problems getting it right a day or two ahead of time speaks volumes to me. Well I'm sure I've pissed off all those who try their hardest to get these long range forecasts right I know they put a ton of work and research into it..and they deserve tons of respect for what they do. And these same people will allow future long range forecasts to be more accurate. They are pioneers in their field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.