mackerel_sky Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 If the GFS is showing an arctic outbreak and dream blizzard on Feb 28, 15 days out and that's all we've had,then its cliff diving time! Keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro500mbHGHTNH240.gif Gulf of Alaska trough is gone. Winter is still alive, maybe this will stop a few weenies from cliff Diving before Dec 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 27, 2012 Author Share Posted November 27, 2012 http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNH240.gif Gulf of Alaska trough is gone. Winter is still alive, maybe this will stop a few weenies from cliff Diving before Dec 1? Dec 10 timeframe still looking good. Hopefully our -NAO will return. The overall "blocky" picture across the globe is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 http://raleighwx.ame...mbHGHTNH240.gif Gulf of Alaska trough is gone. Winter is still alive, maybe this will stop a few weenies from cliff Diving before Dec 1? I'm probably wrong but that doesn't look like it's got a -NAO signature to it. I don't see any Greenland blocking (I see a ridge but it's WAY east of Greenland. Is that west/versus east based -NAO?). Jury is still out for the winter (January and February), I'll drop back and punt until mid December and I'll regroup to see what's going on. It is discouraging though how familar this thread is to last year...seeing the pattern change JUST over the horizon but it never actually comes. Hopefully history won't repeat itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I'm probably wrong but that doesn't look like it's got a -NAO signature to it. I don't see any Greenland blocking (I see a ridge but it's WAY east of Greenland. Is that west/versus east based -NAO?). Jury is still out for the winter (January and February), I'll drop back and punt until mid December and I'll regroup to see what's going on. It is discouraging though how familar this thread is to last year...seeing the pattern change JUST over the horizon but it never actually comes. Hopefully history won't repeat itself. That is what I'm afraid of. Seems like we're going through the same thing now as we did last winter. I guess things look better now because we have seen the -NAO and the summer and fall have been cooler than last year. But then that makes me worry if the warm up is going to take place in winter and we lose the -NAO the further along we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Dec 10 timeframe still looking good. Hopefully our -NAO will return. The overall "blocky" picture across the globe is encouraging. The snow pack being laid in Canada will bode well for future arctic invasions. Next up is the northern plains, I would real like to see next weeks cutter "bomb out" in eastern Canada to pump the Greenland ridge. The good news is the AO is still modeled to stay in the tank. Unlike last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Normal around these parts is not "wintry," and since that is the word used in the title of this thread, that is the subject we are talking about. If we want to get technical - as seems to be the case - it reads "after November". That's still true. It's always true. Just not in December (at least early December). But now were just getting into semantics. And it may be true that the big "Winter Outlooks" published a month or two ago have fed the beast of expectation. But I don't recall any of them defining a "ready set go" date (I suppose most presumed it to coincide with meteorological winter months - that would at least explain some of the edginess). as an aside, I blame this pattern on Accuweather, who as I recall predicted a cold and wet winter. Right on cue, the first part of winter is shaping up to be warm and dry. ...in continuation...It has been dry. But lately more "warm" forecasts have concluded in "cooler" than called temps. You may be absolutely correct. For me however, recent weeks of history have been a worthy judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 That is what I'm afraid of. Seems like we're going through the same thing now as we did last winter. I guess things look better now because we have seen the -NAO and the summer and fall have been cooler than last year. But then that makes me worry if the warm up is going to take place in winter and we lose the -NAO the further along we get. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zggemensindices.html http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/00zecmwfensindices.html http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zensindices.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Maybe things will change around the 15th or so. I just know from reading Allan Huffman's blog today, it doesn't sound encouraging. http://www.examiner.com/article/rdu-10-day-forecast-and-national-long-range-discussion-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Brick needs to spread his expertise into other regions to successfully conquer the title. Maybe we should start a moving fund. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Maybe things will change around the 15th or so. I just know from reading Allan Huffman's blog today, it doesn't sound encouraging. http://www.examiner....ge-discussion-6 You should post this in every thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Maybe things will change around the 15th or so. I just know from reading Allan Huffman's blog today, it doesn't sound encouraging. http://www.examiner....ge-discussion-6 His discussion only goes out until the 9th-10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Maybe we should start a moving fund. Brick should start posting that in every east coast sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 His discussion only goes out until the 9th-10th I know, but it still doesn't look encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I know, but it still doesn't look encouraging. lol. Looks encouraging to me after the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 lol. Looks encouraging to me after the 10th. Well, I guess that's the good thing about the long range forecasts. They change from day to day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Hey at least there is some hope. Anything would be better than last winter and I do agree, we are only in the end of Nov. I've lived in the N.C. Mtns. my whole life and its usually after Christmas when we have our snow events other than a few very nice Christmas storms. Lets hang in there its way to early to do a belly flop off the cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Just keeps getting pushed further and further back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Well, I guess that's the good thing about the long range forecasts. They change from day to day. Quotes like this make you our forums Karl Pilkington. What Allan actually said for those who don't feel like clicking the link is that there is a lot of uncertainty. The 6z GFS Ens went positive on the AO/NAO in the LR he seems to feel that the switch to cold won't happen till probably after the 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 360hr snow map, WHY? WHYYY???? It'll be gone by 0z anyway! Not worth the bandwidth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Weenies should avoid the 18z (it is the 18z GFS after all) the pattern looks good and it's actually a sort of fantasy storm...for parts of the SE...hello MS, AL, and LA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 I can see that it must be time for WOTY once again Let's keep the cliff diving, winter cancel and why Brick will no longer be able to play basketball talk confined to the banter thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Weenies should avoid the 18z (it is the 18z GFS after all) the pattern looks good and it's actually a sort of fantasy storm...for parts of the SE...hello MS, AL, and LA! One thing I like about this map even though it is LR that the Northern tier fo the country has a good snow pack and that will be key going down the road as that will act like a freezer up there so that we can get some good pushes of cold air coming down and staying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillerA Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Posted from a GSP tweet and placed on their facebook page: Above normal temps 6-10 day time frame. http://m.facebook.co...v=feed&refid=17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 00z GFS says what warmth? 12/04-05 cold right in the heart of the US moves into NC by 12/06 I believe... check out this wild image Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Ya not a bad run at all. Heading in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 28, 2012 Author Share Posted November 28, 2012 I'd keep an eye on the initial trough swinging through the US by this time next week. If this continues to trend stronger and really begins to wrap it all up over SE Canada, that'll be the way to pull in the ridge over Greenland( -NAO) right as the ridge over the west coast begins to move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 Van Denton FOX8 WGHP TV First 19 days of December 2012 will see ups and downs. In case you missed the weather reports earlier this evening or at 10:30 tonight......It appears December will start mild in NC and transition to cooler the 2nd week and then Much Colder the end of the 2nd week into week 3. IF we get any precip that week, it appears today that it would be cold enough to think about snow. That is the way it looks today...this could change with new model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 28, 2012 Share Posted November 28, 2012 06z GFS does not look bad this morning. Slow and steady are the key words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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