Cold Rain Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 It's disappointing to see you leading the charge of 300hr+ operational GFS charts on here. The model has no discernable value at that range unless it is lucky. Winter is not dead...the MJO would suggest a shift a better pattern mid month toward the holidays....and this is supported by the last Euro weekly set and somewhat by the CFS 16-30....Would rather spend a less favorable climo period of winter in warmth and save the cold for a better time frame. At any rate, we are going to have a bit of a rollercoaster this winter... Everyone in this subforum should read your second to last sentence and commit it to memory, verbatim, and recall it daily from now until at least December 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Everyone in this subforum should read your second to last sentence and commit it to memory, verbatim, and recall it daily from now until at least December 15. I get that. I just worry if we keep waiting to save it for later, it's never going to come, or it's going to be dry and be a waste of cold air. It seems the last few years we have been waiting and waiting, and it never came. We ended up doing better the early part of winter than the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 26, 2012 Author Share Posted November 26, 2012 It's disappointing to see you leading the charge of 300hr+ operational GFS charts on here. The model has no discernable value at that range unless it is lucky. Winter is not dead...the MJO would suggest a shift a better pattern mid month toward the holidays....and this is supported by the last Euro weekly set and somewhat by the CFS 16-30....Would rather spend a less favorable climo period of winter in warmth and save the cold for a better time frame. At any rate, we are going to have a bit of a rollercoaster this winter... Mr. Bob! I see no problem posting a 300hr+ GFS map if you're wanting to convey a case for the progression of the overall pattern. I can post a pre 300hr map and/or a GEFS map to get my point across if it'll make you less disappointed in me. The central point of the argument is that a change in the Pacific looks to be coming into a little focus. I agree that the latter half of December looks more promising that the first couple of weeks. (and that's the way we want it!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 I get that. I just worry if we keep waiting to save it for later, it's never going to come, or it's going to be dry and be a waste of cold air. It seems the last few years we have been waiting and waiting, and it never came. We ended up doing better the early part of winter than the latter. How bout just not worrying at all till the end of December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 If we all look-in the past our wintry weather has generally occurred jan thru mar. Yes we have had wintry weather in December but for the most part jan thru mar. I wouldnt jump ship anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 If we all look-in the past our wintry weather has generally occurred jan thru mar. Yes we have had wintry weather in December but for the most part jan thru mar. I wouldnt jump ship anytime soon. Agreed. 2011 vs 2010 earliest systems... Mid Dec 2011: Started seeing threats pop up on the LR (~170-200hrs) for Another Christmas Snow, didn't happen. Dec. 04-05 2010: Clipper widespread T-3" outside mountains, up to 8" in Apps. This year I'd say we should worry if we're well into the new year and have had absolutely nothing to track. That would be quite depressing if nothing is on the LR by then. All I have to say is man I'd love for it to be 2010 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 It's disappointing to see you leading the charge of 300hr+ operational GFS charts on here. The model has no discernable value at that range unless it is lucky. Winter is not dead...the MJO would suggest a shift a better pattern mid month toward the holidays....and this is supported by the last Euro weekly set and somewhat by the CFS 16-30....Would rather spend a less favorable climo period of winter in warmth and save the cold for a better time frame. At any rate, we are going to have a bit of a rollercoaster this winter... What a great post (except the Wow lashing of course) A reality check on the pooper scooper GFS, encouragement on the pattern for near the end of December with non-GFS evidence, and a reality check that it doesn't snow in December anyway so everybody should just play golf. I endorse this message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 What a great post (except the Wow lashing of course) A reality check on the pooper scooper GFS, encouragement on the pattern for near the end of December with non-GFS evidence, and a reality check that it doesn't snow in December anyway so everybody should just play golf. I endorse this message. This is truly amazing.The way most on this,and other,post you would think it Feb 28th.THe calender say Nov 26th 2012 .Now I know last winter ,if you want to call it that,was horrible .Iremember after 2009/2010 winter when ther was talk of snow for the southeast many were saying that this was a once in a while winter and do't get used to it.Well 2010/2011 winter was pretty good.We did't get as much snow as 20092010 was the snow on christmas day was worth the whole winter..All i'm saying is give time .The models are on our side.I 'm starting to believe we have way to many models to look at and if one goes different that what we want people are ready to jump off of a cliff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 This is truly amazing.The way most on this,and other,post you would think it Feb 28th.THe calender say Nov 26th 2012 .Now I know last winter ,if you want to call it that,was horrible .Iremember after 2009/2010 winter when ther was talk of snow for the southeast many were saying that this was a once in a while winter and do't get used to it.Well 2010/2011 winter was pretty good.We did't get as much snow as 20092010 was the snow on christmas day was worth the whole winter..All i'm saying is give time .The models are on our side.I 'm starting to believe we have way to many models to look at and if one goes different that what we want people are ready to jump off of a cliff. LOL! This amazes you? It won't after you stick around a while longer. I agree the pattern looks more favorable this winter so at least there is a reason for optimism during the most climatic favorable times for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 If we all look-in the past our wintry weather has generally occurred jan thru mar. Yes we have had wintry weather in December but for the most part jan thru mar. I wouldnt jump ship anytime soon. Ya I agree that most people were a little spoiled by December 09, and 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 26, 2012 Share Posted November 26, 2012 Well, FWIW (and probably not much) the 18Z GFS offers no short term hope, and little long term .... But then again, it is the 18Z - most unreliable of all the daily runs IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 @RyanMaue: Want well-below normal winter air? Siberia, Alaska, or maybe less so in Europe. Lower-48 warmest from normal + Arctic http://pic.twitter.com/rWwwUIt7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 @RyanMaue: Want well-below normal winter air? Siberia, Alaska, or maybe less so in Europe. Lower-48 warmest from normal + Arctic http://pic.twitter.com/rWwwUIt7 I remember last year he claimed we would have a 1985 style winter outbreak...which obviously never came. I know everyone says he is great in the LR...but just seems to me he is about as accurate as every other forecaster that has a large following and gets a big paycheck. He also claimed last year the GFS after 7 days is just a roll of the dice...yet here he is sticking to the 5 - 10 day GFS forecast. We'll see who is right in 10 days I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Last winter was awesome. Looking forward to another winter like that this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 I remember last year he claimed we would have a 1985 style winter outbreak...which obviously never came. I know everyone says he is great in the LR...but just seems to me he is about as accurate as every other forecaster that has a large following and gets a big paycheck. He also claimed last year the GFS after 7 days is just a roll of the dice...yet here he is sticking to the 5 - 10 day GFS forecast. We'll see who is right in 10 days I suppose. i don't know much about him but I believe almost every forecaster missed last year paycheck or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Sounds like the Euro Weeklies keep the Aleutian/Bering Strait ridge and Gulf of Alaska trough in weeks 3 and 4...some western U.S. ridging that probably keeps us from being overly warm, but doesn't sound like a wintry pattern with the trough off the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Not worried about the weeklies they have been changing just as much as op runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Sounds like the Euro Weeklies keep the Aleutian/Bering Strait ridge and Gulf of Alaska trough in weeks 3 and 4...some western U.S. ridging that probably keeps us from being overly warm, but doesn't sound like a wintry pattern with the trough off the west coast. Was just looking at them, they don't look good for the SE, I would guess they are OK for the NE. Looks like a repeat of last winter with the pacific pattern getting stuck. Hopefully we can get some changes by mid-Jan. Good news, it won't be cold and dry, looks more seasonal and dry for Dec. Maybe the AO/NAO can overpower the crappy pacific in Jan. Should be a quiet month on the boards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 27, 2012 Author Share Posted November 27, 2012 Was just looking at them, they don't look good for the SE, I would guess they are OK for the NE. Looks like a repeat of last winter with the pacific pattern getting stuck. Hopefully we can get some changes by mid-Jan. Good news, it won't be cold and dry, looks more seasonal and dry for Dec. Maybe the AO/NAO can overpower the crappy pacific in Jan. Should be a quiet month on the boards. My what short memories we all have! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhamwx205 Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Good lord .... The doom and gloom about december is funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Good lord .... The doom and gloom about december is funny Looks like the latest run of the Euro just came in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Good lord .... The doom and gloom about december is funny well, to be fair it is becoming obvious that there will be a lack of a "wintry" pattern in the SE for at least the first half of December. I think most objective people here recognize that, and as such it is not doom and gloom so much as it is just stating reality. My hope, as it is every year, is that we can get some winter time magic around Christmas/New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 well, to be fair it is becoming obvious that there will be a lack of a "wintry" pattern in the SE for at least the first half of December. I think most objective people here recognize that, and as such it is not doom and gloom so much as it is just stating reality. My hope, as it is every year, is that we can get some winter time magic around Christmas/New Years. You mean it will be normal for December? That's fantastic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 In my opinion, the psychology that individuals have with December this year is due to the many advance forecasts that predicted that December would be below normal this year. Now that the realization is coming about that December could torch for the first half, it shows just how unpredictable and unreliable many of the season advance long term forecasts can be even when they are done 30 days in advance. The entire situation can become very fragile very quickly if the Pacific locks. If that unfortunate situation occurs, people outside of the mountains will be discussing here on January 15 how there is only 2-3 more optimal weeks for snow to fall and stick around more than a day. It all can unravel very quickly as December 15 becomes January 1 that become January 15 that becomes February 1 as the '10 day horizon' keeps getting pushed out. I'm optimistic that will not happen this year and that we will see some variability this winter and end up slightly below normal for temperatures and near normal for snowfall as anything is better than last years train wreck. However, as always, keep in mind that normal snowfall outside of the mountains does not exceed 6 inches in many places in North Carolina. It takes a unique event to over deliver. Personally, I prefer as much snow as possible to fall from Mid December to the end of January so it is more likely to stay around rather than be subject to rapid melt from the higher sun angle away from the winter solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 27, 2012 Author Share Posted November 27, 2012 0z Euro D+7 to 10 to show the retrograding Aleutian ridge and the trough off the west coast moving in. SW ridge perking up to keep any more troughs setting up off the west coast again. Once this trough moves in, a full lat western ridge should pop for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 That also looks like a stout SE ridge ! 0z Euro D+7 to 10 to show the retrograding Aleutian ridge and the trough off the west coast moving in.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 You mean it will be normal for December? That's fantastic! Normal around these parts is not "wintry," and since that is the word used in the title of this thread, that is the subject we are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 as an aside, I blame this pattern on Accuweather, who as I recall predicted a cold and wet winter. Right on cue, the first part of winter is shaping up to be warm and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 0z Euro D+7 to 10 to show the retrograding Aleutian ridge and the trough off the west coast moving in. SW ridge perking up to keep any more troughs setting up off the west coast again. Once this trough moves in, a full lat western ridge should pop for a little while. encouraging, until you notice the next trough ready to assume the same position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 27, 2012 Share Posted November 27, 2012 Let your hearts not be troubled. This year is nowhere near as bearish as last. The pattern is in place. The -NAO will be more common than +NAO this winter. Sure the prevailing pattern is dry NW flow, but look at today. We got a southern stream system. Repeat with -NAO and the NC mountains cash in. Just be patient. After the brief torch temps should become seasonable cold or even colder than normal in the Southeast after mid-Dec. We get some blocking up near Greenland. The West stays mild and the Plains variable due to that choppy Pacific signal. Over here, the blocking signal should have more influence. That NW flow may not allow the southern stream bomb everybody is looking for. Note today's system has a positive tilt. However any clipper that can drag enough moisture down behind will create some upslope for the mountains behind it. In a -NAO regime it would dig enough to do even more in the mountains. This is the South. Waiting around a lower elevations is a recipe for clinical depression. Unlike storm chasing, we know where it will be good. Snow will fall in the mountains. How convenient. Enjoy the snow in the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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