A change to a wintry pattern emerging after November?

[mackerel_sky]

It's a little worrisome the cold keeps getting pushed back,but I'm trying to stay positive.what keeps hope alive,is the 88 storm.the benchmark snow for me.it was warm around Xmas,I have family movies of doors and windows open,and then about 2 weeks later,14 inches of snow,and temps in teens.so don't give up hope yet!

[Brick Tamland]

Seems we get a cold shot for a few days and then it warms up again. And now it looks like we'll get close to 70 next week. I don't mind the warmth. I'd rather have it warm and dry than cold and dry. But I wish we could get some snow and it's not going to happen if we don't have the cold air. I am becoming more and more pessimistic about seeing any snow this winter. Even when the models show something good for the pattern down the road, it's always so far out and ends up changing the closer we get to when the pattern was supposed to be good for snow. It's the same old song.

[packbacker]

Seems we get a cold shot for a few days and then it warms up again. And now it looks like we'll get close to 70 next week. I don't mind the warmth. I'd rather have it warm and dry than cold and dry. But I wish we could get some snow and it's not going to happen if we don't have the cold air. I am becoming more and more pessimistic about seeing any snow this winter.

It will snow, in January, pacific will improve and -NAO/-AO will be there for us :-). Let's enjoy the upcoming warmth.

[Brick Tamland]

It will snow, in January, pacific will improve and -NAO/-AO will be there for us :-). Let's enjoy the upcoming warmth.

I just can't help but think by the time the Pacific improves the -NAO/-AO will be going positive.

[franklin NCwx]

Seems we get a cold shot for a few days and then it warms up again. And now it looks like we'll get close to 70 next week. I don't mind the warmth. I'd rather have it warm and dry than cold and dry. But I wish we could get some snow and it's not going to happen if we don't have the cold air. I am becoming more and more pessimistic about seeing any snow this winter. Even when the models show something good for the pattern down the road, it's always so far out and ends up changing the closer we get to when the pattern was supposed to be good for snow. It's the same old song.

Please, Look at where you live and then check the calendar! It's very early, the ensemble's want to point to a better pattern in the 11-15 day range. I hope they are right and we can start building a modest -NAO with a +PNA for the middle and latter part of DEC. I would much rather have the cold and snow around Christmas than at the start of DEC.

[Brick Tamland]

Please, Look at where you live and then check the calendar! It's very early, the ensemble's want to point to a better pattern in the 11-15 day range. I hope they are right and we can start building a modest -NAO with a +PNA for the middle and latter part of DEC. I would much rather have the cold and snow around Christmas than at the start of DEC.

I know. I'll take the snow whenever we can get it, though. It just seems the longterm picture always looks good but then ends up changing. It seems people are not as optimistic about this winter now as they were just a week ago. I know, it's always changing, but I feel like whenever the models show something good for the pattern down the road it often ends up crying wolf.

[WilkesboroDude]

I don't like the new pattern we have had for the past month or so...looks like it's staying.

Went ahead and created the developing drought thread to keep the optimism going here.

(deleted image)

[SnowNiner]

Catching up from this weekend, it looks like the moral of the story, is ditch the GFS long range, it doesn't mean much.

I'm fine with ditching cold in early December and December all together frankly as some have already said. That's a waste of cold for the region. Torch in December cold in January will be great! My only concern is that the NAO stay generally negative throughout the winter, if it does, I'm sure we'll get shots of +PNA/+EPO here and there off and on.

[Cold Rain]

I know. I'll take the snow whenever we can get it, though. It just seems the longterm picture always looks good but then ends up changing. It seems people are not as optimistic about this winter now as they were just a week ago. I know, it's always changing, but I feel like whenever the models show something good for the pattern down the road it often ends up crying wolf.

Which people?

[Cold Rain]

Which people?

I only ask, by the way, cause I'm trying to juxtapose who you might be speaking of with some folks from whom I've read recent comments. They include people (and I don't know if you've heard of any of these) like Raleighwx, Foothills, Matthew East, DT, Joe Bastardi, and a couple of guys that frequent Americanwx who usually do a fairly awesome job at predicting the weather....what are their names?....wait, it's coming...oh yes, Don Sutherland and Usetobe. I haven't heard any of them give up on Winter. But since it's November 26 and Spring is just around the corner and it hasn't snowed yet and it's going to be in the 70s for a couple of days, maybe they will all come in line with your sources and ditch what's left of this miserably mild and snowless Winter.

[DixieBlizzard]

I only ask, by the way, cause I'm trying to juxtapose who you might be speaking of with some folks from whom I've read recent comments. They include people (and I don't know if you've heard of any of these) like Raleighwx, Foothills, Matthew East, DT, Joe Bastardi, and a couple of guys that frequent Americanwx who usually do a fairly awesome job at predicting the weather....what are their names?....wait, it's coming...oh yes, Don Sutherland and Usetobe. I haven't heard any of them give up on Winter. But since it's November 26 and Spring is just around the corner and it hasn't snowed yet and it's going to be in the 70s for a couple of days, maybe they will all come in line with your sources and ditch what's left of this miserably mild and snowless Winter.

You are wasting a lot of time and energy here for no good reason.

[packbacker]

Nobody is saying winter is toast, I only stated the next 2-3 weeks look warm and dry. End of December and January are up in there air but there are a lot of positives, the blocking (-NAO/-AO) look to be really favorable this winter, we need the pacific to cooperate though and we need some energy too. It's been very dry here the past 5 weeks. I personally hope we don't hit a good pattern until end of December, save it for January for this area.

[Cold Rain]

You are wasting a lot of time and energy here for no good reason.

Yeah, I know.... I'm just sitting here in the doc's office with nothing to do, so I thought I'd give it a shot. I just have to believe there's hope, like Frodo for Gollum or Luke for Vader.

[franklin NCwx]

Yeah, I know.... I'm just sitting here in the doc's office with nothing to do, so I thought I'd give it a shot. I just have to believe there's hope, like Frodo for Gollum or Luke for Vader.

12z op GFS starting to come inline with it's ensemble's. The gulf of Alaska vortex backs west towards the Aleutian's and starts to pump the PNA ridge. Also the NAO continues to stay negative. Deep trough in the eastern US. Now we just hope that it's right so we don't have to cancel winter again.

[Wow]

End of Dec? I was thinking only about a 1 week delay in the cold pattern setting up - say, by Dec 10 or so. I also think the STJ will come alive and a stormy pattern will emerge once again in the next couple of weeks (SOI values have tanked - today it's at -16.7.. it was at +15 just a week ago!)

http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

[Bevo]

I only ask, by the way, cause I'm trying to juxtapose who you might be speaking of with some folks from whom I've read recent comments. They include people (and I don't know if you've heard of any of these) like Raleighwx, Foothills, Matthew East, DT, Joe Bastardi, and a couple of guys that frequent Americanwx who usually do a fairly awesome job at predicting the weather....what are their names?....wait, it's coming...oh yes, Don Sutherland and Usetobe. I haven't heard any of them give up on Winter. But since it's November 26 and Spring is just around the corner and it hasn't snowed yet and it's going to be in the 70s for a couple of days, maybe they will all come in line with your sources and ditch what's left of this miserably mild and snowless Winter.

Agreed.

However In conjunction with that, I also look at things through a "Widre-esque" lens - although not as dry. Common sense and 37 years here tells me that December is typically not a cold month (in comparison to January, February or even March). I can count on 1 hand the number of Christmases I remember having to wear a coat. I understand the edgy nerves and fear of repeating last winter's utter let down. It was bad. In my opinion however, I just don't think we're there yet.

[WilkesboroDude]

Looks like the western states will begin the stormy pattern first...HPC has 8+ inches of rain along the west coast. We usually see the opposite for the meantime I believe...

[Brick Tamland]

Nobody is saying winter is toast, I only stated the next 2-3 weeks look warm and dry. End of December and January are up in there air but there are a lot of positives, the blocking (-NAO/-AO) look to be really favorable this winter, we need the pacific to cooperate though and we need some energy too. It's been very dry here the past 5 weeks. I personally hope we don't hit a good pattern until end of December, save it for January for this area.

Maybe that will be the case. The thing is it seems like the longer we wait for that to happen, the more it seems it won't. I know the long range forecast was for the winter to be a good one, but I am just afraid we're going to warm up, or the blocking will go away, or the precip won't be around when it is cold enough. I guess I'm just being pessimistic.

[Wow]

Neg NAO returns with a +PNA this time. Watch the STJ, too. Compare this to the first post in this thread. The western ridge is our king-maker. The lack of one right now with a strong +EPO in place will win the battle over the -NAO until it breaks down as we end the first week of December.

[Brick Tamland]

Neg NAO returns with a +PNA this time. Watch the STJ, too. Compare this to the first post in this thread. The western ridge is our king-maker. The lack of one right now with a strong +EPO in place will win the battle over the -NAO until it breaks down as we end the first week of December.

Is the -NAO going to hang around after it breaks down, though? Maybe we'll get a warm up next week before the real action starts taking place.

[Wow]

Is the -NAO going to hang around after it breaks down, though? Maybe we'll get a warm up next week before the real action starts taking place.

The pattern will be zonal and dry here for another week to 10 days. Temps will be at or abv normal but it's not a major torch our way, possibly for the central US however. Once the mean ridge hits the western US (per GFS around 10 days from now), the cold air will be headed down our way. I also think our dry spell will be broken (at least for a time) as the STJ will perk up and begin sending some s/w's across the south (possible split flow?)

[Brick Tamland]

I guess we'll see. I always cringe whenever I see around 10 days from now.

[NCSNOW]

The pattern will be zonal and dry here for another week to 10 days. Temps will be at or abv normal but it's not a major torch our way, possibly for the central US however. Once the mean ridge hits the western US (per GFS around 10 days from now), the cold air will be headed down our way. I also think our dry spell will be broken (at least for a time) as the STJ will perk up and begin sending some s/w's across the south (possible split flow?)

Good news it has been a 11-15 day event, now we should start seeing it modeled in the 5-10 day frame throughout this week. I'm holding my breath. Very confident in us getting the AO/NAO signal we need this winter. Just need that pacific to fall in line and more importantly stay in line. Thanks for keeping this thread updated. Saves me alot of time sneaking on here at work.

[franklin NCwx]

The pattern looks a lot better as we end next weekend.http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH360.gif

[Tyler Penland]

I'm liking this fella right here progressing through phase 1/2. Could aid in fixing the Pacific.

As Buckeye mentioned a few days ago that in weak-ENSO, the MJO is something to really keep an eye on.

[franklin NCwx]

Thanks for adding the MJO, yes, that should help in pumping the PNA ridge.

[griteater]

I'm liking this fella right here progressing through phase 1/2. Could aid in fixing the Pacific.

As Buckeye mentioned a few days ago that in weak-ENSO, the MJO is something to really keep an eye on.

That actually shows the MJO in the circle of death. The plots through Phase 1, 2, 3 are historical - beginning Oct 17 and going through early Nov. Latest GEFS plots have the MJO coming out of the COD and into Phase 1 around Dec 5, but the Euro Ens barely brings it out into Phase 1, then it goes back into the COD. There are other ways to look at the MJO though (maps/hovmoellers)...learning myself, but other methods may be showing the Phase 1-2 MJO signal...but the phase plots aren't currently showing a strong MJO signal.

The big pig ridge in the Bering Strait is the key in my view with the pattern going forward. Need that to retrograde into NE Siberia or somehow have it weaken over time, else we are stuck with a mean trough right off the west coast leading to warm Pacific flow.

[Wow]

12z Euro at Day 10 screams big pattern change coming. The Aleutian block has retrograded and a big trough has formed near HI which will kick up a big ridge downstream near the GOA/west coast as energy pours into the trough and progresses eastward a bit. This is nearly opposite of what will be around the next week (the big Aleutian ridge N of HI and upper low sitting just south of the GOA.

AO still looking negative, too. You can see the beginning of the ridge forming S of AK.

[Cold Rain]

^That is some serious zonal flow there on the Euro. I was gonna post about the retrograding GOA low. I think that bodes well as we work through December. I do think it might take a little longer than the Euro is suggesting, as it usually has a bit of staying power.

[Mr Bob]

Neg NAO returns with a +PNA this time. Watch the STJ, too. Compare this to the first post in this thread. The western ridge is our king-maker. The lack of one right now with a strong +EPO in place will win the battle over the -NAO until it breaks down as we end the first week of December.

It's disappointing to see you leading the charge of 300hr+ operational GFS charts on here. The model has no discernable value at that range unless it is lucky.

Winter is not dead...the MJO would suggest a shift a better pattern mid month toward the holidays....and this is supported by the last Euro weekly set and somewhat by the CFS 16-30....Would rather spend a less favorable climo period of winter in warmth and save the cold for a better time frame. At any rate, we are going to have a bit of a rollercoaster this winter...