Wow Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 The models have been hinting at an emerging pattern change for the end of November and into December for the past few days. One feature that the models all agree on is the Aleutian ridge this is currently building and looks to remain in place for at least the next couple of weeks, some models have this forming a cut-off block, pushing its way poleward and splitting the upper-level PV. Additionally, the NAO looks to return to its negative phase in the next few days, perhaps locking in for a while IF the PV displacement produced by the AK block establishes a new PV over E Canada as the GGEM and GFS are forecasting at D+10: The ECMWF has been waffling the past couple of days on it's end-of-run solutions. While yesterday's 12z run produced a strong cutoff AK block, today's 0z took it out entirely and only has the Aleutian ridge remaining in place. Should this AK block cutoff and push its way to the NP and a -NAO redevelops, the possibility of our first real surge of arctic air pushing down to our region greatly increases. 6z GFS @ 240hrs: 0z GGEM @ 240hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 The models have been hinting at an emerging pattern change for the end of November and into December for the past few days. One feature that the models all agree on is the Aleutian ridge this is currently building and looks to remain in place for at least the next couple of weeks, some models have this forming a cut-off block, pushing its way poleward and splitting the upper-level PV. Additionally, the NAO looks to return to its negative phase in the next few days, perhaps locking in for a while IF the PV displacement produced by the AK block establishes a new PV over E Canada as the GGEM and GFS are forecasting at D+10: 6z GFS @ 240hrs: 0z GGEM @ 240hrs: I sure hope goofy is correct Dr. No isn't sure this will happen, but does show the possibility. Interesting times as we head into met winter and I'm looking forward to the first real threat of some winter precip for the se crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 I sure hope goofy is correct Dr. No isn't sure this will happen, but does show the possibility. Interesting times as we head into met winter and I'm looking forward to the first real threat of some winter precip for the se crew. I just added a revision to mention the waffling the ECMWF has done for the past few runs. The Euro ensemble, however, do maintain a strong Aleutian block and -NAO, along with a mean trough over the East... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Wow, nice to get some weather posts from you. I know you must bust your butt on the tech & business ends of the site but, I enjoy your thoughts when you do post them. As has been stated in the other threads.....That we are at least seeing potential even if it is med. range is a big win over last winter already! Looking forward to the evolution of this in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 The PV establishing itself over E Canada is essential to bring the cold in our direction should the PNA remain negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I just added a revision to mention the waffling the ECMWF has done for the past few runs. The Euro ensemble, however, do maintain a strong Aleutian block and -NAO, along with a mean trough over the East... The EC continues to want to hold back the energy from the west, but it's known for doing things like this. It certainly has my interest It would be nice to track the possibility.....it's been a long time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 The euro ensemble does not have a deep trough in the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Hopefully this thread doesn't become infected with what's going on in other threads. The Pacific holds all the answers for sure! Look for a winter weather flight in the GOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Quite the impressive closed high over AK/Bearing Strait on the overnight Euro...5 standard deviations above normal. Regardless of how this plays out, it's good to see the strong ridging in the higher latitudes as we approach Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Looks like the 12z GFS agrees with the 0z euro(or what I would imagine would play out if it verified). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 and honestly, right now I'm leaning towards the cold air dropping into the Pac NW/Rockies, leaving us with at best normal temps. I think it'll get cold eventually but I'm a little pessimistic regarding the first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 I will call it a toss up where the arctic ball will drop. We are still 10 days out but the thing to take away from it right now is the presence of a significant blocking episode taking place. Either way it is looking good. If it does hang back west it will eventually head east as long as the blocks in place hold - that is, holding the AO/NAO negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Looks good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Keep an eye on the multiple strong storms in the Sea of Okhotsk region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 While the operational models are still figuring out where to drop the PV as it moves southward near the end of the month, the ensembles still maintain a mean trough over the east, the block over the bering sea, and ridge extending into Greenland. 12z Euro ENS at 240 hrs: 12z GEFS @ 240 hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I guess this is a triple block... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Ya'll gonna love the 18z GFS Days 7-10... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 The 18z GFS pops a +PNA ridge and hooks up with the AK block. Of course, beyond 240 it deflects a huge emerging Greenland block and breaks it all down but if the Greenland block does form and force the PV Down to SE Canada then December will be (dare I say) rockin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 While the operational models are still figuring out where to drop the PV as it moves southward near the end of the month, the ensembles still maintain a mean trough over the east, the block over the bering sea, and ridge extending into Greenland. 12z Euro ENS at 240 hrs: 12z GEFS @ 240 hrs: Lovely cross polar flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 So many times we end up with a sideswipe hit and run, in the early days of winter.... it would be nice to see a full on attack into the deep south. Climo down here, it usually seems. speaks against a full assult, but there is always the odd winter out T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 So many times we end up with a sideswipe hit and run, in the early days of winter.... it would be nice to see a full on attack into the deep south. Climo down here, it usually seems. speaks against a full assult, but there is always the odd winter out T December 2000 comes to mind. It got cold early and stayed that way until after new years. I had snow on the ground at least half of the month and it snowed new years eve at 16 degrees. It looked like powdered sugar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 The 18z GFS pops a +PNA ridge and hooks up with the AK block. Of course, beyond 240 it deflects a huge emerging Greenland block and breaks it all down but if the Greenland block does form and force the PV Down to SE Canada then December will be (dare I say) rockin'. Looking at 18z it looked like it really wanted to pop something out of the GOM but then just goes fizzle and turns into a really weak front. Either way I think it's safe to say someone on the EC is probably going to get something the first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Looking at 18z it looked like it really wanted to pop something out of the GOM but then just goes fizzle and turns into a really weak front. Either way I think it's safe to say someone on the EC is probably going to get something the first week of December. Models might be having a hard time with the potential setup. Looks like around day ten things will start to get interesting. Maybe around Thanksgiving we'll have something to track. For right now each new model run may/will show dramatic differences (..more than normal); like today's 12z GFS compared to GFS 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 Looking at 18z it looked like it really wanted to pop something out of the GOM but then just goes fizzle and turns into a really weak front. Either way I think it's safe to say someone on the EC is probably going to get something the first week of December. I haven't even started looking at individual shortwaves yet. Step 1 will be sniffing out the new pattern which lies ahead. If the elements we need to obtain a favorable winter pattern does emerge then once we are within the 5 to 6 day window we can look at what storms may be of interest to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I guess this is a triple block... Words you want to hear if you want lots of cold and snow. Words you don't want to hear from your cardiologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Still looks warm in the SE (???) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I'm noticing a lack of Euro pictures in this thread. It's mentioned and then dismissed. Dr. No is called Dr. No for a reason, you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The good Dr. has been swerving all over the road at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The good Dr. has been swerving all over the road at the end of its run. Ya this change and a possibly a big change setting up could cause some pretty wide swings from the models; especially being over a week away from this getting started. Safe to say the model watching should be very entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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