RodneyS Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 According to my database, there have been 19 El Nino, 22 La Nina, and 22 Neutral meteorological winters, beginning with the 1949-1950 winter. Here is how the three types compare in terms of average DC winter temperatures, total DC winter precipitation, average DC winter snow, and median DC winter snow, respectively: El Nino: 37.3 degrees, 9.4 inches, 20.5 inches, and 14.0 inches. La Nina: 38.5 degrees, 7.9 inches, 12.7 inches, and 11.5 inches. Neutral: 37.9 degrees, 8.2 inches, 15.8 inches, and 13.4 inches. So, the differences are not all that stark, especially in terms of median snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 According to my database, there have been 19 El Nino, 22 La Nina, and 22 Neutral meteorological winters, beginning with the 1949-1950 winter. Here is how the three types compare in terms of average DC winter temperatures, total DC winter precipitation, average DC winter snow, and median DC winter snow, respectively: El Nino: 37.3 degrees, 9.4 inches, 20.5 inches, and 14.0 inches. La Nina: 38.5 degrees, 7.9 inches, 12.7 inches, and 11.5 inches. Neutral: 37.9 degrees, 8.2 inches, 15.8 inches, and 13.4 inches. So, the differences are not all that stark, especially in terms of median snow. I have 20 el nino events with an average snowfall of 19.9. I'm planning on doig some type of article on the table I've made of the years, snowfall, 5.5" inch events during the season (based on Matt's post) and AO average for the season. I may throw in a couple of warm neutrals too but haven't decided yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 I have 20 el nino events with an average snowfall of 19.9. I'm planning on doig some type of article on the table I've made of the years, snowfall, 5.5" inch events during the season (based on Matt's post) and AO average for the season. I may throw in a couple of warm neutrals too but haven't decided yet. Perhaps I'm missing one. I have the following winters as El Nino: 1951-52 1957-58 1963-64 1965-66 1968-69 1969-70 1972-73 1976-77 1977-78 1982-83 1986-87 1987-88 1991-92 1994-95 1997-98 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2009-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Perhaps I'm missing one. I have the following winters as El Nino: 1951-52 1957-58 1963-64 1965-66 1968-69 1969-70 1972-73 1976-77 1977-78 1982-83 1986-87 1987-88 1991-92 1994-95 1997-98 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2009-10 Based on this webpage -- http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm -- I am revising my statistics to include 1953-54 as an El Nino winter, thus increasing the number of El Nino winters since the 1949-50 winter season to 20. Also, while the number of La Nina winters remains 22, this webpage classifies those winters slightly differently than I had. So, here are the revised DCA statistics for the 20 El Nino winters, the 22 La Nina winters, and the 21 neutral winters, 1949-50 through 2011-12, listed in the following order: Average December through February temperatures, D-F precipitation, average D-F snow, and median D-F snow: El Nino: 37.5 degrees, 9.2 inches, 20.3 inches, and 16.0 inches. La Nina: 39.0 degrees, 8.1 inches, 11.8 inches, and 10.8 inches. Neutral: 37.3 degrees, 8.1 inches, 16.7 inches, and 15.0 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Great Job Rodney!!!! Love the post/article. I am saving this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 21, 2012 Author Share Posted November 21, 2012 Based on this webpage -- http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm -- I am revising my statistics to include 1953-54 as an El Nino winter, thus increasing the number of El Nino winters since the 1949-50 winter season to 20. Also, while the number of La Nina winters remains 22, this webpage classifies those winters slightly differently than I had. So, here are the revised DCA statistics for the 20 El Nino winters, the 22 La Nina winters, and the 21 neutral winters, 1949-50 through 2011-12, listed in the following order: Average December through February temperatures, D-F precipitation, average D-F snow, and median D-F snow: El Nino: 37.5 degrees, 9.2 inches, 20.3 inches, and 16.0 inches. La Nina: 39.0 degrees, 8.1 inches, 11.8 inches, and 10.8 inches. Neutral: 37.3 degrees, 8.1 inches, 16.7 inches, and 15.0 inches. Okay, third time's the charm, as I have now added 1958-59 to the list of El Nino winters, thus changing the El Nino and Neutral composites. Also, as most forecasts for this winter are for either a weak El Nino or a neutral event, I am adding statistics for the eight previous weak El Ninos (since 1950). While the sample size is limited, those statistics are interesting, as weak El Ninos have featured less precipitation and snow than neutral years, albeit temperatures have been colder. El Nino: 37.4 degrees, 9.1 inches, 19.6 inches, and 14.0 inches. La Nina: 39.0 degrees, 8.1 inches, 11.8 inches, and 10.8 inches. Neutral: 37.4 degrees, 8.2 inches, 17.3 inches, and 15.2 inches Weak El Nino: 36.2 degrees, 7.8 inches, 15.8 inches, and 13.3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Those numbers tell me a couple things: 1) It looks like the average snowfall during El Nino winters is skewed by our big storms since the median difference between El Nino and La Nina is only 2.5 inches. 2) It's interesting how such large scale changes can produce such small, but still noticeable changes in average precipitation. 3) Limits are interesting, and for big storms here it seems to be about 2 feet of snow. It's not like some storms produce 5 feet, some 2 feet...nope, the big ones are usually around 2 feet. Unfortunately, we're not due for a big storm here, but we are due for "some" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Amen on the snow after last years lack-luster winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted November 23, 2012 Author Share Posted November 23, 2012 Okay, third time's the charm, as I have now added 1958-59 to the list of El Nino winters, thus changing the El Nino and Neutral composites. Also, as most forecasts for this winter are for either a weak El Nino or a neutral event, I am adding statistics for the eight previous weak El Ninos (since 1950). While the sample size is limited, those statistics are interesting, as weak El Ninos have featured less precipitation and snow than neutral years, albeit temperatures have been colder. El Nino: 37.4 degrees, 9.1 inches, 19.6 inches, and 14.0 inches. La Nina: 39.0 degrees, 8.1 inches, 11.8 inches, and 10.8 inches. Neutral: 37.4 degrees, 8.2 inches, 17.3 inches, and 15.2 inches Weak El Nino: 36.2 degrees, 7.8 inches, 15.8 inches, and 13.3 inches. I just realized that the above snow totals are actually for the entire snow season, not just December-February. So, I'm adding average and median D-F snow statistics. Also, I'm adding moderate and strong El Nino events, which number seven and six, respectively. While, again, the sample size is small, the numbers seem to suggest that a moderate El Nino produces a sweet spot for snow involving cold temperatures and ample precipitation. The weak El Nino produces even colder temperatures, but insufficient precipitation; while the strong El Nino produces ample precipitation, but temperatures even warmer than the La Nina average. The respective order of the numbers are average D-F temperatures, average D-F precipitation, average D-F snow, median D-F snow, average winter season snow, and median winter season snow: El Nino: 37.4 degrees, 9.1 inches, 16.8 inches, 11.7 inches, 19.6 inches, and 14.0 inches. La Nina: 39.0 degrees, 8.1 inches, 9.9 inches, 8.8 inches, 11.8 inches, and 10.8 inches. Neutral: 37.4 degrees, 8.2 inches, 13.0 inches, 9.5 inches, 17.3 inches, and 15.2 inches Weak El Nino: 36.2 degrees, 7.8 inches, 12.6 inches, 11.5 inches, 15.8 inches, and 13.3 inches Moderate El Nino: 37.1 degrees, 9.9 inches, 22.7 inches, 13.1 inches, 26.0 inches, and 25.0 inches Strong El Nino: 39.3 degrees, 9.8 inches, 15.4 inches, 17.1 inches, 17.2 inches, and 17.1 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.