tom23 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 There are some butthurt people in this thread whining.... want some cheese with that wine?? Seriously... its a longterm/long range forecast people... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 OP, what could cause the -NAO/AO to turn positive? (i'm generally curious, just getting into meteorology and trying to learn as much as possible ) Well.. its according to how far back in the atmospheric and oceanic oscillations you want to go. Stratospheric cooling would could cause the polar vortex to become stronger and that in turn would cause less blocking in the high latitudes because lower pressures/heights would be dominating the higher latitudes where the NAO/AO are measured when hen the PV become stronger and more concentrated! Now you could take this further back.. but its a long drawn out process that I dont have the time to go into right now. HM here at this forum is one of the best at root drivers of Oceanic and Atmospheric Oscillations. If you want to take it back past stratospoheric cooling I suggest you search out some of his threads. Hope that helps you understand what would cause the NAO/AO to go from - to + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Well.. its according to how far back in the atmospheric and oceanic oscillations you want to go. Stratospheric cooling would could cause the polar vortex to become stronger and that in turn would cause less blocking in the high latitudes because lower pressures/heights would be dominating the higher latitudes where the NAO/AO are measured when hen the PV become stronger and more concentrated! Now you could take this further back.. but its a long drawn out process that I dont have the time to go into right now. HM here at this forum is one of the best at root drivers of Oceanic and Atmospheric Oscillations. If you want to take it back past stratospoheric cooling I suggest you search out some of his threads. Hope that helps you understand what would cause the NAO/AO to go from - to + Kinda sorta! lol. I think I need to do some more reading so I can more fully understand NAO, I thought I had a general idea but bleh the internet (and this site) has a plethora of information! But I sure hope it doesnt turn positive, I'm in the mood for snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Good read. Anyone remotely successful or trying become known will have haters. Can't wait till see how everyone's forecast pans out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Good luck with your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 Kinda sorta! lol. I think I need to do some more reading so I can more fully understand NAO, I thought I had a general idea but bleh the internet (and this site) has a plethora of information! Excuse the typos im sleepy Maybe you were looking for a more simple and directly triggered answer so I will explain it in shorterm synoptic trends. During winter there is an upper level jetstream that we call the "Polar" jet stream. Its called polar because its average latitude is in the polar regions of the globe. It generally controls what sections of North America sees colder and warmer temperatures. It rides overtop of upper level high pressure systems and underneath upper level low pressure systems! If the polar jet is to your north you will normally see warmer temps and if the PJ is over the same latitutde or south of you.. temps are normally colder than normal! There are exceptions to this rule though (Cold air damning... elevation/microclimates... low/high pressure systems that get cutoff from the jet stream etc) Now that you know this jet is located on average at the polar latitudes the only way to get it more southward are stronger ridges of upper level high pressure systems placed in partcular spots where they work in tandem to send the PJ southward by riding up and down the ridges in the higher latitudes of the polar regions. This is called high latitude blocking! Here are the rough and general locations of high latitude oscillations where one or more of these general locations have to have an upper level high pressure system to setup in order to allow troughs of lower pressure and colder air to make it into our latitudes. Courtesy of Larry Cosgrove The movement of higher pressure out of the AO/NAO positions allows lower pressure to move in and in turn sends the NAO/AO from negative phase to positive one So if you have this -NAO phase And if that HPS is steered out of the NAO position then lower pressure will begin to move in and the PJ will be allowed to retreat back northward allowing an upper level ridge of higher pressure to move in where there was once an upper level trough of lower pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 Good read. Anyone remotely successful or trying become known will have haters. Can't wait till see how everyone's forecast pans out! Thanks Wilkes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Excuse the typos im sleepy Maybe you were looking for a more simple and directly triggered answer so I will explain it in shorterm synoptic trends. During winter there is am upper level jetstream that we call the "Polar" jet stream. Its called polar because its average latitude is in the poalr regions of the globe. It generally controls what sections of North America sees colder and warmer temperatures. It rides overtop of upper level high pressure systems and underneath upper level low pressure systems! If the polar jet is to your north you will normally see warmer temps and if the PJ is over the same latitutde or south of you temps are normally colder than normal! There are exceptions to this rule though (Cold air damning... elevation/microclimates... low/high pressure systems that get cutoff from the jet stream etc) Now that you know this jet is located on average at the polar latitudes the only way to get it more southward are stronger ridges of upper level high pressure systems placed in partcular spots where they work in tandem to send the PJ southward by riding up and down the ridges in the higher latitudes of the polar regions. This is called high latitude blocking! Here are the rough and general locations pf high latitude Oscillations where one or more of these general locations have to have an upper level high pressure syste setup in order to allow troughs of lower pressure and colder air to make it into our latitudes. Courtesy of Larry Cosgrove The movement of higher pressure out of the AO/NAO positions allows lower pressure to move in and in turn sends the NAO/AO from negative pase to poistive phase So if you have this -NAO phase And if that HPS is steered out of the NAO position ten lower pressure will begin to move in and the PJ will be allowed to retreat back northward allowing an upper level ridge of higher pressure to move in where there was once an upper level trough of lower pressure It made perfect sense in this post. You are very good at explaining complicated processes! I'm saving this post in my "notes" word document! Thank you for bearing with me and my lack of knowledge. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 This guy's reply to you yesterday in the NE thread was spot on. That is my general rule as well. He was told to read more and post less before he was banned.....evidently he doesn't get it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Nice forecast... How much for Miami, FL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 It made perfect sense in this post. You are very good at explaining complicated processes! I'm saving this post in my "notes" word document! Thank you for bearing with me and my lack of knowledge. LOL Glad I could help...and thanks for the nice words. Just ignore the trolls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Looks like you put a lot of work into your forecast. Good luck!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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