WXeastern Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Not a whole lot overall has changed but a few things have changed recently such as the Arctic Oscillation and a few fall analogs which does have a significant impact on the first graphics I issued..so here is an update! Final 2012/13 winter outlook Winter weather patterns over the eastern united states depend on several Atmospheric oscillations and Oceanic oscillations. Oceanic oscillation values depend on sea surface temperatures. Atmospheric Oscillation values depend on pressure/height patterns at various levels of the atmosphere and its clear to me that the Arctic Oscillation will dominate this winter!!! Certain weather patterns usually teleconnect to these oscillations and I have based most aspects of this outlook off of several different oscillations which I will discuss here. *Longterm Oscillations/SST's* -The PDO decadal cycle- The PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) is described as warm or cool surface waters in the Pacific Ocean 20 degrees and north. During a warm or positive phase the west Pacific becomes cool. Eastern parts of the Pacific become warm during a cool or negative phase.. and vice versa. I put most of the weight of this outlook on the current decadal cycle of the PDO. The snowy winters of 09/10 10/11 were products of this relatively new and cold decadal cycle of the PDO.. just like all the snowy winters of the 50's 60's and 70's were part of the last negative/cold decadal cycle of the PDO. It is my belief that the decadal cycle of the PDO is a bigger driver of climate than ENSO is! This value argues strongly in favor of a colder and snowier than normal winter in the southern tier of the nation. Posistive and Negative phases of the PDO -ENSO- ENSO is another Oscillation that is used to get an idea of a future weather pattern. When you here someone mention La Nina or El Nino they are talking about ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation). Im expecting a borderline Neutral to weak El nino ENSO episode this winter. This particular value will also argue for a colder and snowier than normal southern tier of the nation. There are other longer range oscillations that IMO are less important to weather patterns over North America..but we wont talk about those here. *Local Shorterm Oscillations* Some of these "local" Oscillations are much harder to predict than say ENSO.. or the PDO because they change much more quickly. Although..sometimes there are signals that correlate these local Oscillations to a particular value. Thats how they become useful in long range forecasting. I label them with the word "Local" because I consider them local in respect to the longwave weather pattern over North America. -EPO- The East Pacific Oscillation or EPO is the western most Oscillation in the set of local Oscillations.The EPO's value depends on values of high and low pressure and/or heights in the Northern Pacific. A positive EPO is a warm signal in the eastern united states during winter.. and a Negative EPO is a cold signal during winter. Recent SST data and wx pattern trends over the northern Pacific are suggestive of a more negative EPO this winter! Positive phase of the EPO -PNA- The PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is a weather pattern with two distinct phases denoted by positive and negative which relates to the atmospheric pattern over the Northern Pacific Ocean and sections of western North America. The PNA is often influnenced directly by the EPO and a majority of the time is a direct opposite value of the EPO. The same atmospheric and oceanic data signals that say the EPO will be mostly negative this winter.. are the same signals that say the PNA will be mostly positive this winter. A positive phase of the PNA is a cold signal here in the eastern US. Positive Phase of the PNA -NAO/AO- Perhaps the most important (During winter) of all these indices that we have discussed.. is the North Atlantic Oscillation and its twin Brother/sister.. the Arctic Oscillation. The reason the NAO is the most important is because its value directly effects our weather pattern here in the eastern US during winter. This is because the NAO is the most local of all the local oscillations that affect our weather during boreal winter. A negative value almost always equals a colder pattern during the winter season. This is due to the high latitude blocking that the negative phase produces. Predicting NAO/AO values outside of two weeks has proven to be extremely difficult.. but again there are correlations that for the most part can usually give one a good idea of the mean winter value. Several different signal's/correlations argue that the NAO/AO will be mostly negative this winter. SST data in the North Atlantic/Summer to winter NAO correlation data/and IMO.. the most important correlation is the October AO to winter AO correlation. All these signals argue that NAO/AO should be mostly on the negative side this winter. However.. if this value for some unexpected reason ends up being mostly positive this winter.. it will trump this and any other cold outlook in the eastern united states. Positive and Negative phases of the NAO Here will be the biggest local driver of this outlookk.. the October AO correlation broken down in three different increments. The following meteorlogical winter average anomaly temps from all October AO values since 1950 that averaged out to at least -0.5 ...The mean December AO value from these is -0.343 The October input years are 1960 1966 1968 1974 1976 1979 1980 1981 1993 1997 2002 2003 2004 2006 2009 Average anomaly winter temps with a previous October AO value of at least -1.00 And since this October went -1.51 here is the average anomaly winter temps from the only two years that had October AO values of at least -1.40 *Winter Analogs* Another method used to forecast in the long range is past weather data of a certain year and season. Most of the analogs are based on the decadal cycle of the PDO...some are based on ENSO and some are based on weather patterns this summer and fall. This coming winter the majority of the analogs are of the colder variety! The analogs that are based on ENSO are ones that take the DJF ONI data only into account. Here is a list of the analogs used in this outlook *Winter Analogs* Another method used to forecast in the long range is past weather data of a certain year and season. Most of the analogs are based on the decadal cycle of the PDO...some are based on ENSO and some are based on weather patterns this summer and fall. This coming winter the majority of the analogs are of the colder variety! The analogs that are based on ENSO are ones that take the DJF ONI data only into account. Here is a list of the analogs used in this outlook in terms of weight NOTICE HOW WELL THE ANALOG ANOMALIES MATCH THE AO ANOMALIES 2009/10 1952/53 2002/03 1976/77 1987/88 Here is an average of composite temp anomalies for the said winters. -Recent weather Pattern Over North America- If one has been paying attention to the current weather pattern that person could easily see a cold season pattern setting up with the split in the jetstream. Polar/Subtropical. This pattern also favors a colder southern tier of the nation. I can easily see how several powerful Nor'easter type systems (One of them is already currently in the works) are produced from what I expect to be some major phasing of the polar and subtropical jetstream's this year. Having all of this and when I average all these ingredients together I come up with the graphics below which is the last section of my winter outlook. My predictions based on the above info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Sooo.. you're saying it's going to be cold and snowy. Am I reading this correctly? Let me know if I am not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 Sooo.. you're saying it's going to be cold and snowy. Am I reading this correctly? Let me know if I am not. Yes..I think it will be very similar to 2009/10. Ive really spent days and days of my free time on this during the weekends and evenings after I got off from my day job. I think and hope I have a decently accurate winter forecast now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I like the "Snowfall/Cold" graphic into north FLA (in all seriousness)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Sooo.. you're saying it's going to be cold and snowy. Am I reading this correctly? Let me know if I am not. It is a winter forecast on AmWx, so yes, you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 All I can say is I hope you're right!!! Thanks for sharing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 I like the "Snowfall/Cold" graphic into north FLA (in all seriousness)! All I can say is I hope you're right!!! Thanks for sharing... Thanks for the friendly comments guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Thanks for the friendly comments guys! I hope your winter forecast is better than your thanksgiving snowstorm call....what, 15 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 I hope your winter forecast is better than your thanksgiving snowstorm call....what, 15 days out. Yeah..you need to read more thouroghly and quit jumping to conclusions. You're acting as if I was calling for snow on thanksgiving day and you are also acting as if the Thanksgiving timeframe has already come and gone or something! BTW I also just responded to your other troll post in the other thread! You do know that its still November 17th dont you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Yeah..you need to read more thouroghly and quit jumping to conclusions. You're acting as if I was calling for snow on thanksgiving day and you are also acting as if the Thanksgiving timeframe has already come and gone or something! BTW I also just responded to your other troll post in the other thread! You do know that its still November 17th dont you? Not trolling. Just seems like you are calling for a storm over a 3 week period and IF one develops you will claim victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Thanks for sharing your forecast. Hope your right on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I hope your winter forecast is better than your thanksgiving snowstorm call....what, 15 days out. zing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 Not trolling. Just seems like you are calling for a storm over a 3 week period and IF one develops you will claim victory. Either you're surely trolling or you are just very bad at mathematics! Ok.. let me break it all the way down for you! Thanksgiving is on November 22nd there is only 30 days in the month of November! That means there is a period of 8-9 days that this storm could fall in and be within my timeframe. Do you understand that? Long range forecasting is very hit and miss and by no means even close to being an exact science...so you have to speak in broad terms or you will look like a true idiot on every call! Now..if a simialr system does form and lays down snow in a similar track to what I have projected and its within the 9 day window.. you dont want me to claim any credit for the call? Is that correct? If so do you want me to say I missed the call? Im just trying to see the angle that you are driving at here? I made a long range call..no matter how far out it was..It is my call and it has support or I wouldnt have made it! I am still confident in it and If its wrong..I will be the first one to say "I sure busted the hellout of that one!" If its similar to what I have called for.. am I not due any credit for my call because it was made at two weeks out? If you're not trolling then im certainly confused by your posts and I do not mean any disrespect to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Either you're surely trolling or you are just very bad at mathematics! Ok.. let me break it all the way down for you! Thanksgiving is on November 22nd there is only 30 days in the month of November! That means there is a period of 8-9 days that this storm could fall in and be within my timeframe. Do you understand that? Long range forecasting is very hit and miss and by no means even close to being an exact science...so you have to speak in broad terms or you will look like a true idiot on every call! Now..if simialr system does form and lays down snow in a similar track to what I have projected and its within the 9 day window.. you dont want me to claim any credit for the call? Is that correct? If so do you want me to say I missed the call? Im just trying to see the angle that you are driving at here? I made a long range call..no matter how far out it was..It is my call and it has support or I wouldnt have made it! I am still confident in it and If its wrong..I will be the first one to say "I sure busted the hellout of that one!" If its similar to what I have called for.. am I not due any credit for my call because it was made at two weeks out? If you're not trolling then im certainly confused by your posts and I do not mean any disrespect to you! Sounds good but you were claiming victory the other day when the euro showed a noreaster just off the coast. You talked about how that was the storm around thanksgiving. Then models took it 700 miles east. Now you are moving the window way down the road with the hope that god wills a storm to occur so you can say 'told ya.' In other words...ya look like a weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 Sounds good but you were claiming victory the other day when the euro showed a noreaster just off the coast. You talked about how that was the storm around thanksgiving. Then models took it 700 miles east. Now you are moving the window way down the road with the hope that god wills a storm to occur so you can say 'told ya.' In other words...ya look like a weenie. So... I was claiming victory before the possible storm even formed and the timeframe even got here? You cant just make up **** like that to support your trolling! You have to link us to such stupidity. But you wont be able to do that because I never said anything of the such. Im now through being nice to you and will not tolerate being trolled anymore. So dont expect anymore responses to your posts from me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 Thanks for sharing your forecast. Hope your right on it. Thanks Metalicwx Its nice to know there are civil posters here that appreciate somebodys research instead of bashing it. I know I havent proven myself here on this forum.. but I am trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 So... I was claiming victory before the possible storm even formed and the timeframe even got here? You cant just make up **** like that to support your trolling! You have to link us to such stupidity. But you wont be able to do that because I never said anything of the such. Im now through being nice to you and will not tolerate being trolled anymore. So dont expect anymore responses to your posts from me! To your bolded.....yes, on your facebook page. Don't shoot the messenger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Thanks Metalicwx Its nice to know there are civil posters here that appreciate somebodys research instead of bashing it. I know I havent proven myself here on this forum.. but I am trying I enjoyed reading your forecast especially since it looks favorable for snow. Was wondering what your thoughts are on a negPNA negNAO type pattern? I read in the New England forum this type pattern seems likely to develop. I can see how it favors them but what about 40South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 WXEastern, weren't you posting as CyclonicJunkie here last season? How many accounts do you have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 WXEastern, weren't you posting as CyclonicJunkie here last season? How many accounts do you have? Yes Stove I was but I cancelled my acoount due to me getting involved into OT topic section trouble. So I just thought It was better for me to start fresh and stay out of OT. Stove I know you're pissed at me but since we have had many face to face interactions I think you could still call toot unless you're just gonna hold a grudge against me the rest of ur life. I have nothing but love for you bro! But I will tell you..you and ur buddy cant troll me enough to put a stop to my posts here. If thats yalls intentions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Regardless of your history I can see you put a good amount of effort in your forecast. Kudos to you there, thank you for the contribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 To your bolded.....yes, on your facebook page. Don't shoot the messenger. Proof son we need proof! But you cant provide any becasue you are totatlly lying about me claiming any victory before a storm actually happened. If this place has mods that care about the structure of these threads then surely they could step in an put a stop to all these false claims without any iota of proof. But Maybe im wrong?I didnt start posting here to cause any trouble.. I just wanted to share my thoughts and research! If its not wanted here I can gladly stop posting any research that I do on this site. It will be no sweat off my back. If you have problems the with my storm system forecasts on my blog this is not the place to discuss them. My blog is clearly listed in my signature and I will gladly answer any and every question asked about any aspect of any forecast. ITS REALLY THAT SIMPLE and there is no need for all this back and forth due to a certain someone getting demoted for trolling on another forum. This is just clogging up my winter outlook thread which has tons of support. Thanks and as always..no disrespect meant towards anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 Regardless of your history I can see you put a good amount of effort in your forecast. Kudos to you there, thank you for the contribution. Thank you very much Marrietta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 My buddy? You're paranoid. I just wanted to make sure we knew which aliases to give the Weenie of the Year award to if you end up winning. I'm not trolling your forecasts at all. Everyone deserves a chance to guess. It's all part of the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 My buddy? You're paranoid. I just wanted to make sure we knew which aliases to give the Weenie of the Year award to if you end up winning. I'm not trolling your forecasts at all. Everyone deserves a chance to guess. It's all part of the fun. Too bad you're not motivated enough to give us ur thoughts/winter outlook that way you could also be entered into the weenie of the year race. But I guess it takes a little more confidence than you possess to enter that race! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Proof son we need proof! But you cant provide any becasue you are totatlly lying about me claiming any victory before a storm actually happened. If this place has mods that care about the structure of these threads then surely they could step in an put a stop to all these false claims without any iota of proof. But Maybe im wrong? I didnt start posting here to cause any trouble.. I just wanted to share my thoughts and research! If its not wanted here I can gladly stop posting any research that I do on this site. It will be no sweat off my back. If you have problems the with my storm system forecasts on my blog this is not the place to discuss them. My blog is clearly listed in my signature and I will gladly answer any and every question asked about any aspect of any forecast. ITS REALLY THAT SIMPLE and there is no need for all this back and forth due to a certain someone getting demoted for trolling on another forum. This is just clogging up my winter outlook thread which has tons of support. Thanks and as always..no disrespect meant towards anyone. Your problem is that you cannot handle anyone who questions your postings. You immediately become defensive. Your methodology is to boast huge prophecies about 'big dog' snowstorms weeks out, then move the target until you get somewhere near the bullseye. Maybe in time you will realize that its not about the number of 'likes' you beg for on FB, but about real substance to a forecast. Until then you will only be a big weenie amongst weenies who eat up your grand calls for extreme weather. Do you get this bro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Listen more... post less... is generally a good rule of thumb. This guy's reply to you yesterday in the NE thread was spot on. That is my general rule as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXeastern Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 Do you get this bro? No "Bro" I dont get it!! But I do get your's and Stove's antagonism because of my recent success over the past 4 years My track record speaks for itself and stove knows this is the truth..but being the guy he now is he probably will not admit to it! Winter Outlooks by me 2008/09 half verified/busted in the western US 2009/10 Fully Verified 2010/11 Fully Verified 2011/12 Busted horribly 2012/13 High Confidence But let me ask you one question? Yall take that how you want but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Lol. You're a mess. Good luck ever being taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 OP, what could cause the -NAO/AO to turn positive? (i'm generally curious, just getting into meteorology and trying to learn as much as possible ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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