hurricaneschwartz Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Glenn, I hope you are doing well, been busy with Sandy, et al here, so I'm kind of late to this party. This does not take anything away from Dr. Cohen's work, I obviously would not have gone on and on and on about it earlier this week. Just like all of the other forcing mechanisms, its not the one and only answer. In the 44 years of data and based on the sampling span (1967-2011) PHL winter average temperature of 34.7F, the 22 ensuing seasons when Eurasian snow cover was above the median in October, 12 were colder than 34.7F, 10 were warmer than 34.7F. If we use the current normal of 35.4F, its 13 colder than the current normal, 8 warmer than the current normal and one exactly the current normal. There was an enso neutral winter that followed a multi seasonal nina whose October Eurasian snow cover exceeded the median by over 1 million square kilometers and that ensuing winter had 4" of snow and an average temperature of 41.3F in PHL. Don't think it will happen this winter, but it has happened in the past. Tony: This is why I didn't necessarily predict below average temps for this winter...only above average snow. As so many forecasters have already mentioned, the blocking is the key for this winter, considering a neutral tropical Pacific. I've been following Dr. Cohen's work for many years, and it seems the correlation with Eurasian snow is better with winter snow here than winter temps. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I think you're referring to the infamous 2001-2002 winter. I believe november was way above normal that month temperature wise and that the winter was also negative neutral while this is one looks to be positive enso neutral. If any "rule" worked all the time, EVERYONE would use it, and winter forecasting would be much easier. PDO, QBO...there are other factors (and probably some we don't even know about yet). We can only talk about odds with this stuff, and we will continue to be way off at times. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Tony: This is why I didn't necessarily predict below average temps for this winter...only above average snow. As so many forecasters have already mentioned, the blocking is the key for this winter, considering a neutral tropical Pacific. I've been following Dr. Cohen's work for many years, and it seems the correlation with Eurasian snow is better with winter snow here than winter temps. Glenn Glenn, Yes, agree. Works better with snow than temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Ahahahahahahahahahahaha. Has Accuweather or Bastardi ever NOT put out an above normal snow forecast for the I-95 corridor? Um last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Um last year For JB...for most of the Northeast http://unofficialnetworks.com/201112-winter-forecast-western-united-states-america-45392/ For Accu -- http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/accuweathercom-winter-20112012/55890 Looks like both liked it cold/snowy/stormy for most of the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 For JB...for most of the Northeast http://unofficialnet...-america-45392/ For Accu -- http://www.accuweath...-20112012/55890 Looks like both liked it cold/snowy/stormy for most of the NE. Yeah, was about to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 As far as temps go we cannot ignore he trends, since March 2010 we have been above normal every month with the exception of a few and most with the exception of novembe rthat have been below normal have only been barely below normal. I believe Glenn mentioned in his winter forecast about recent trends of above normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Um last year "AccuWeather.com Winter 2011-2012 Forecast: Another Brutal One" I have had accuwx's failed map in my sig line for almost 11 months. Oh well, maybe they've changed methodology this year...OR...maybe the blind squirrel is about to find the nut! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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