Quakertown needs snow Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Thought it might be good to have one location for these? If not our torch mod can delete it . Hopefully some of our local pro's / met's / others will post. Please post any missed so far and others as the come in. Accuweather: http://www.accuweath...heast-nyc/80787 6ABC: From last night, November 15th http://abclocal.go.c...887549&pid=null Farmer's: CPC: Rob Guarino: http://www.liveweath....emid=17<br />9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Accuweather: http://www.accuweath...heast-nyc/80787 Ahahahahahahahahahahaha. Has Accuweather or Bastardi ever NOT put out an above normal snow forecast for the I-95 corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 My forecast is pretty boring this year. Normal snow, normal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 16, 2012 Author Share Posted November 16, 2012 My forecast is pretty boring this year. Normal snow, normal temps. Nice, thanks Adam. Nice map At least you didn't use the "t" word this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Celicy's looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I saw Tony on Channel 3's winter forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I'm slightly above normal temps (a degree), average snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Here's my stab at it: http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-Glenn-Hurricane-Schwartz-180199191.html Delay was due to family medical issues Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Here's my stab at it: http://www.nbcphilad...-180199191.html Delay was due to family medical issues Glenn good write up Glenn, pretty much the same stuff mentioned in the forums. Just curious, do you look at the mjo for longer range clues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I look at the MJO mostly for middle-range 7-14 days. It doesn't really affect my outlook for the whole winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted November 21, 2012 Author Share Posted November 21, 2012 Here's my stab at it: http://www.nbcphilad...-180199191.html Delay was due to family medical issues Glenn Nice write-up Glenn, good luck and thanks for posting here. We would love to see you post more often. Hope all is well with your family and your health. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Here's my stab at it: http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/weather/stories/Long-Range-Winter-Forecast-Glenn-Hurricane-Schwartz-180199191.html Delay was due to family medical issues Glenn I love it. You dumb it down perfectly for the masses. I love your Eurasian Snow cover graph explaining the areial increase in km2 from the last two years. This quote was priceless, "it doesn’t matter what they mean, it’s just a lot more." I also pretty much agree with average or slightly above average winter. Good stuff. I also offer best wishes to everyone in your family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I love it. You dumb it down perfectly for the masses. I love your Eurasian Snow cover graph explaining the areial increase in km2 from the last two years. This quote was priceless, "it doesn’t matter what they mean, it’s just a lot more." I also pretty much agree with average or slightly above average winter. Good stuff. I also offer best wishes to everyone in your family. and people still ask for layman's terms lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 and people still ask for layman's terms lol Yeah, I saw that and thought it was a bit funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Very good write-up Glenn, it is easy for us weather fans who are just learning and makes sense with the setup we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Here's my stab at it: http://www.nbcphilad...-180199191.html Delay was due to family medical issues Glenn Hmm. I get the Eurasian snow signal and the -NAO. But the extreme weather index is a little less compelling. It's a bi-modal indicator, meaning that it considers strong negative signals (drought, heat) to be equivalent to strong positive signals (excess precip, cold). So, I guess I dont quite see how it argues for cold and snow. Also the long-term trends suggest extreme weather is rarely followed by extreme weather. So although the pattern suggests (strongly) that more extreme weather is more normative, the signal is stronger in a couple of years than this year. Just curious how you interpreted it. The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much below normal and ( percentage of the United States with maximum temperatures much above normal. The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with minimum temperatures much below normal and ( percentage of the United States with minimum temperatures much above normal. The sum of (a) percentage of the United States in severe drought (equivalent ot the lowest tenth percentile) based on the PDSI and ( percentage of the United States with severe moisture surplus (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) based on the PDSI. Twice the value of the percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal proportion of precipitation derived from extreme (equivalent to the highest tenth percentile) 1-day precipitation events. The sum of (a) percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days with precipitation and ( percentage of the United States with a much greater than normal number of days without precipitation. [the cut and paste replaced (a) and ( with smiley's] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Glenn -- nice write-up. I'm curious as to why you went biased warmer than normal overall? Not saying I disagree with it, I'm not certain just yet on this winter to be honest. Your NAO/AO discussion seemed to be leading up to a colder than normal temp forecast, but I'd guess you expect quite a bit of pos/neg variation and no strong -NAO block really locking in for several weeks on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 For whatever reason, we have been in a period of extreme weather both in the U.S. and this area during the past 3 years. When it rains, it rains harder; when it snows, it snows more; when it's windy, it's windier. The amount of records in such a short period (some records SMASHED, not just broken) has become so obvious that it should be beyond dispute. I don't know whether it's related to the extreme arctic melting, the AMO/PDO setup, or a combination, but something is causing this. Also, don't forget the blocking highs. Stu Ostro of The Weather Channel has documented this beautifully (although 800+ slides was a lot to look through). The positive 500 mb anomalies in the far North Atlantic/Arctic have been increasing significantly. And practically all extreme weather events (blizzards, floods, drought, heat waves...) were correlated to extremely high 500 mb anomalies in BOTH hemispheres. (I guess that's why it took Stu 800+ slides to show it.) When I look at the big picture, more precipitation, stronger winds, and "higher highs" combined with a pattern favoring -NAO/-AO adds up to a stormy winter. The Eurasia snow correlates to at least periods when it will be plenty cold enough for snow. I ran across the extreme graphic months before preparing the winter forecast. You are obviously much more familiar with the details of how it's put together. But it did appear to confirm the above in a nice, graphical way. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Great writeup and very easy to understand, i hope it pans out. I hope your whole families health is good now and will stay that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Your forecast was reasonable, Glenn. Nice, detailed work. I always enjoy reading the science behind it online. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Nice write up Glenn! Hope all is well with your family! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Judah Cohen going with a harsh winter: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/leading-forecaster-judah-cohen-favors-harsh-winter-for-washington-dc-east-coast/2012/11/21/ea5ff790-33e8-11e2-9cfa-e41bac906cc9_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 A great read as always, Glenn! I immediately directed my Facebook friends to check it out since you explain things in such a way that anyone can understand the science & logic behind the forecast. EDIT: Do you ever grade your past performances? My perception is that you do a great job, but of course one of my Facebook friends immediately asked how good your winter forecasts have been in the past. I'm fine with just saying that I think you do a great job, of course, but he may come back and ask if any quantifiable data is available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maximum lawman Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 For whatever reason, we have been in a period of extreme weather both in the U.S. and this area during the past 3 years. When it rains, it rains harder; when it snows, it snows more; when it's windy, it's windier. The amount of records in such a short period (some records SMASHED, not just broken) has become so obvious that it should be beyond dispute. I don't know whether it's related to the extreme arctic melting, the AMO/PDO setup, or a combination, but something is causing this. Also, don't forget the blocking highs. Stu Ostro of The Weather Channel has documented this beautifully (although 800+ slides was a lot to look through). The positive 500 mb anomalies in the far North Atlantic/Arctic have been increasing significantly. And practically all extreme weather events (blizzards, floods, drought, heat waves...) were correlated to extremely high 500 mb anomalies in BOTH hemispheres. (I guess that's why it took Stu 800+ slides to show it.) When I look at the big picture, more precipitation, stronger winds, and "higher highs" combined with a pattern favoring -NAO/-AO adds up to a stormy winter. The Eurasia snow correlates to at least periods when it will be plenty cold enough for snow. I ran across the extreme graphic months before preparing the winter forecast. You are obviously much more familiar with the details of how it's put together. But it did appear to confirm the above in a nice, graphical way. Glenn Glenn - thanks for taking the time to respond. You're logic seems very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 A great read as always, Glenn! I immediately directed my Facebook friends to check it out since you explain things in such a way that anyone can understand the science & logic behind the forecast. EDIT: Do you ever grade your past performances? My perception is that you do a great job, but of course one of my Facebook friends immediately asked how good your winter forecasts have been in the past. I'm fine with just saying that I think you do a great job, of course, but he may come back and ask if any quantifiable data is available. I am not organized enough to do that-wouldn't even know where to find many of the years. Remember, it wasn't such a big deal when I started it in 1997, and wasn't even number-specific at the start, either. It seems that I used to be better at this than I have in recent years, when so many of the "rules" have not panned out. I started doing a Jan. 1 update a couple of years ago, and they have turned out very well, making up for a bad November forecast. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Glenn -- nice write-up. I'm curious as to why you went biased warmer than normal overall? Not saying I disagree with it, I'm not certain just yet on this winter to be honest. Your NAO/AO discussion seemed to be leading up to a colder than normal temp forecast, but I'd guess you expect quite a bit of pos/neg variation and no strong -NAO block really locking in for several weeks on end. Just because we get a lot of snow, that doesn't mean the winter overall needs to have temps below normal. For example, the temp departure for the all-time record 51.5" Feb. 2010 was only -3. I also consider march to be part of the forecast. We've seen some very mild March's lately (March 2010 was +5.1) It could end up that Dec-Jan-Feb turn out to have below normal temps. But there have been very few below normal months in recent years. We'd be fighting the trend to be cold for longer periods than a couple of weeks. We'll see. It should be an interesting winter. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Judah Cohen going with a harsh winter: http://www.washingto...06cc9_blog.html Not surprising. He was the first I know of who publicly correlated Eurasian snow in Oct. to winter weather around here. He's not always right, but I don't know of anyone who's better. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted November 23, 2012 Share Posted November 23, 2012 A great read as always, Glenn! I immediately directed my Facebook friends to check it out since you explain things in such a way that anyone can understand the science & logic behind the forecast. EDIT: Do you ever grade your past performances? My perception is that you do a great job, but of course one of my Facebook friends immediately asked how good your winter forecasts have been in the past. I'm fine with just saying that I think you do a great job, of course, but he may come back and ask if any quantifiable data is available. I am not organized enough to do that-wouldn't even know where to find many of the years. Remember, it wasn't such a big deal when I started it in 1997, and wasn't even number-specific at the start, either. It seems that I used to be better at this than I have in recent years, when so many of the "rules" have not panned out. I started doing a Jan. 1 update a couple of years ago, and they have turned out very well, making up for a bad November forecast. Glenn Thanks, Glenn! Your winter forecast for this year certainly seems reasonable and I always enjoy your later updates as needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Not surprising. He was the first I know of who publicly correlated Eurasian snow in Oct. to winter weather around here. He's not always right, but I don't know of anyone who's better. Glenn Glenn, I hope you are doing well, been busy with Sandy, et al here, so I'm kind of late to this party. This does not take anything away from Dr. Cohen's work, I obviously would not have gone on and on and on about it earlier this week. Just like all of the other forcing mechanisms, its not the one and only answer. In the 44 years of data and based on the sampling span (1967-2011) PHL winter average temperature of 34.7F, the 22 ensuing seasons when Eurasian snow cover was above the median in October, 12 were colder than 34.7F, 10 were warmer than 34.7F. If we use the current normal of 35.4F, its 13 colder than the current normal, 8 warmer than the current normal and one exactly the current normal. There was an enso neutral winter that followed a multi seasonal nina whose October Eurasian snow cover exceeded the median by over 1 million square kilometers and that ensuing winter had 4" of snow and an average temperature of 41.3F in PHL. Don't think it will happen this winter, but it has happened in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Glenn, I hope you are doing well, been busy with Sandy, et al here, so I'm kind of late to this party. This does not take anything away from Dr. Cohen's work, I obviously would not have gone on and on and on about it earlier this week. Just like all of the other forcing mechanisms, its not the one and only answer. In the 44 years of data and based on the sampling span (1967-2011) PHL winter average temperature of 34.7F, the 22 ensuing seasons when Eurasian snow cover was above the median in October, 12 were colder than 34.7F, 10 were warmer than 34.7F. If we use the current normal of 35.4F, its 13 colder than the current normal, 8 warmer than the current normal and one exactly the current normal. There was an enso neutral winter that followed a multi seasonal nina whose October Eurasian snow cover exceeded the median by over 1 million square kilometers and that ensuing winter had 4" of snow and an average temperature of 41.3F in PHL. Don't think it will happen this winter, but it has happened in the past. I think you're referring to the infamous 2001-2002 winter. I believe november was way above normal that month temperature wise and that the winter was also negative neutral while this is one looks to be positive enso neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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