Stuffing and Snow - Late November Banter and Obs

[HM]

It looks like it will get gradient-like for a while across where else....here. I could see it going both ways for a time. It does look like we'll try to pop a little ridge in western Canada so maybe just beyond and the end of week 1, we get colder again. That could be the P1-2 kicking in then.

Yes the end of week 1 ridge idea is a good one. Whenever the PNA decides to spike will obviously be when our storm is, December 5th or 12th or whatever. Like I said yesterday, I'm not prepared to call anything coming up historic or on levels of December 09' or 10' yet but it could be quite snowy for New England.

Admittedly, I may be worrying too much for late December and in 2010 the stratosphere/NAO showed us how it can trump everything else. But, I just don't think this year will be able to do something like that and we warm up for a while. Still, while we going through a +AO, a building warm anomaly in the stratosphere and MJO wave may be on the way to rescue for the second half of winter.

[Damage In Tolland]

going to be mid to upper 50's tomorrow and friday and lows won't be below mid to upper 30s for me. definitely above normal for me,

Do not agree. Fog and low clouds will be widespread the next 2 mornings and slow to burn off. Will keep highs lower because of that

[#NoPoles]

I hate it when that happens.

Have a great Thanksgiving, Diane--I hope the pies come out great!

Happy Pre/Thanksgiving to you and all! Pies have been in the oven for about 20minutes and the house smells wonderful!!!

Safe Travels, good eating, and enjoy friends and family!

[CoastalWx]

I'm becoming increasingly confident that at some point in mid to late January, a very cold and snowy pattern will setup as the MJO and stratosphere combine to bring those conditions. As always, nailing down the timing is the toughest part, especially with these building up wave 1 setups for a top-down. Overall, this winter could end up playing out like a typical El Niño if you think of things on this level.

You think we'll stay more west based? It seems that way and it would certainly help with all you describe above. I had a convo with a buddy of mine at work and a couple of months ago when people were looking at analogs for La nada years, I told him to look where the anomalies are and that despite the definition of weak Nino not being met, those SSTs might still behave west based. At the time I wasn't sure if it was a weenie comment or not...lol, but it made sense to me from a physical standpoint. Maybe it doesn't work out, but so far so good it seems.

[Brian5671]

lol, box has sunny and 55 in tolland for friday............have fun trolling the puppies today:)

TORCH

[OSUmetstud]

This is 9th straight day of frost here, pretty nuts.

[HM]

Are the MJO forecasts still supporting the idea of a PNA ridge after Dec 5?

MJO forecasts still favor a PNA ridge early December forming, yes, with good retrogression in anomalies across the Mid Latitudes.

[NJwinter23]

This storm that some of y'all are worried about cutting inland is quite important for moving the -NAO block west and setting up the Dec 5-10 time frame. I say let the bastard cut inland, take your mix (or rain for me) if you're lucky and hope for the best down the road.

EXACTLY.. I'm happy to see this on all guidance now... i mentioned yesterday (before my weenie comparisons to 2010) that its similar to that second cutter on the 13th of that month, which turned the nao west based (you know, that summer ridge that retrograded across greenland lol). Someone mentioned the cpc analogs just now, the +11 day analogs from yesterday include the exact day of that cutter in 2010 as the 3rd best match.

I will now implement on myself a 1 post per day limit about Dec 2010...so i promise this will be the only time I bring it up today haha.

[Mr Torchey]

Tuesday seems like the big day now. We're going to Philly around 8pm tonight-should miss most of it.

Nice where in Philly, my wife's sister lives down there in Ft Washington

[CoastalWx]

Yes the end of week 1 ridge idea is a good one. Whenever the PNA decides to spike will obviously be when our storm is, December 5th or 12th or whatever. Like I said yesterday, I'm not prepared to call anything coming up historic or on levels of December 09' or 10' yet but it could be quite snowy for New England.

Admittedly, I may be worrying too much for late December and in 2010 the stratosphere/NAO showed us how it can trump everything else. But, I just don't think this year will be able to do something like that and we warm up for a while. Still, while we going through a +AO, a building warm anomaly in the stratosphere and MJO wave may be on the way to rescue for the second half of winter.

Roundy progs have been pretty good though...but hey..so much time left to see how things play out. I'm pretty interested for the next 3-4 weeks or so..it's been a while since I felt this way, probably since Jan 2011. I never once had a good feeling last winter. Every time I looked at anything long range and it looked favorable, 2-3 days later it ended up looking worse and worse.

[Mr Torchey]

Friday is going to be a glorious day.

Maybe we tickle the 60s?

EDIT: Nevermind, nope...I think the coast stays below 55.

Not with a sw wind this time of year, winners will be interior ct and especially interior eastern mass sw of BOS, but its a great day to cook eat and watch football.

[CoastalWx]

EXACTLY.. I'm happy to see this on all guidance now... i mentioned yesterday (before my weenie comparisons to 2010) that its similar to that second cutter on the 13th of that month, which turned the nao west based (you know, that summer ridge that retrograded across greenland lol). Someone mentioned the cpc analogs just now, the +11 day analogs from yesterday include the exact day of that cutter in 2010 as the 3rd best match.

I will now implement on myself a 1 post per day limit about Dec 2010...so i promise this will be the only time I bring it up today haha.

I don't blame you. It does look similar from certain aspects. I actually had a white Christmas.

[NJwinter23]

Where did you get the updated analogs from the 21st so early?

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/analog.php

that cpc page doesnt update the maps until later in the day usually.

[Brian5671]

Nice where in Philly, my wife's sister lives down there in Ft Washington

Very close to Ft Washington-Lower Gywnedd which is where I grew up--folks and sisters still live in the area...it's a 2.5 hr trip with no traffic, if we do it in 3, I'll be thrilled. Thank God for EZ-Pass and high speed lanes for the tolls now.

[HM]

You think we'll stay more west based? It seems that way and it would certainly help with all you describe above. I had a convo with a buddy of mine at work and a couple of months ago when people were looking at analogs for La nada years, I told him to look where the anomalies are and that despite the definition of weak Nino not being met, those SSTs might still behave west based. At the time I wasn't sure if it was a weenie comment or not...lol, but it made sense to me from a physical standpoint. Maybe it doesn't work out, but so far so good it seems.

You are going to see a solid warming in the east regions with this downwelling KW coming in from 120 east but I think ultimately these regions cool again (like they've been). Despite the recent negative subsurface anomalies in the west behind the wave, the SST here are still warm, indicative of an expanded warm pool and IOD.

Overall, I think this acts more like a weak west based El Niño winter than a weak La Niña.

[Mr Torchey]

Very close to Ft Washington-Lower Gywnedd which is where I grew up--folks and sisters still live in the area...it's a 2.5 hr trip with no traffic, if we do it in 3, I'll be thrilled. Thank God for EZ-Pass and high speed lanes for the tolls now.

Yep on all accounts, good luck with traffic, I know the area they are on Militia Hill Rd..........cool area, Happy Thanksgiving.

[Brian5671]

Yep on all accounts, good luck with traffic, I know the area they are on Militia Hill Rd..........cool area, Happy Thanksgiving.

Thanks, you too. Enjoy it.

[HM]

EXACTLY.. I'm happy to see this on all guidance now... i mentioned yesterday (before my weenie comparisons to 2010) that its similar to that second cutter on the 13th of that month, which turned the nao west based (you know, that summer ridge that retrograded across greenland lol). Someone mentioned the cpc analogs just now, the +11 day analogs from yesterday include the exact day of that cutter in 2010 as the 3rd best match.

I will now implement on myself a 1 post per day limit about Dec 2010...so i promise this will be the only time I bring it up today haha.

Alright, alright, you can take the cap off your 1 post /day limit about 2010. lol

I just don't want our expectations high because of this logical fallacy:

December 2010 had an inland track and then a coastal storm so December 2012 will have a coastal storm because it will have an inland track before it.

This statement is not true, even though we say things like this all the time in long range. You can see from the Roundy maps how this setup looks much different than 2010 beyond the cutter; and as you said, there is no summertime ridge coming from Greenland haha.

[HoarfrostHubb]

This is 9th straight day of frost here, pretty nuts.

Yeah, this month has had lots of frosts here. Have not kept a good count. Def not 9 straight days, but probably 10 or so this month. Today's was pretty "meh"...

[HM]

Roundy progs have been pretty good though...but hey..so much time left to see how things play out. I'm pretty interested for the next 3-4 weeks or so..it's been a while since I felt this way, probably since Jan 2011. I never once had a good feeling last winter. Every time I looked at anything long range and it looked favorable, 2-3 days later it ended up looking worse and worse.

You are right about last year and I agree about the Roundy progs being very good. Certainly from a Tropical Pacific standpoint, the torch will want "in" late December.

Last year taught me not to get too wrapped up into something globally and forget the simple things here locally. I was so fixated on the stratospheric warming which sent the NH into the ice box that I glanced over the obvious Alaskan middle finger to ruin the fun. I thought the warming would be anomalous enough to cut that off for a while, even if just for 2 weeks. It sort of did but not really and it terminated much faster than I thought too.

But what happened around the world shows the power of these warmings and they had their own "2009-10 and 2010-11" in that respect.

[CoastalWx]

You are right about last year and I agree about the Roundy progs being very good. Certainly from a Tropical Pacific standpoint, the torch will want "in" late December.

Last year taught me not to get too wrapped up into something globally and forget the simple things here locally. I was so fixated on the stratospheric warming which sent the NH into the ice box that I glanced over the obvious Alaskan middle finger to ruin the fun. I thought the warming would be anomalous enough to cut that off for a while, even if just for 2 weeks. It sort of did but not really and it terminated much faster than I thought too.

But what happened around the world shows the power of these warmings and they had their own "2009-10 and 2010-11" in that respect.

I think your blog summed it up well about what happened. Just a perfect storm of various factors to screw us.

[NJwinter23]

Yes the end of week 1 ridge idea is a good one. Whenever the PNA decides to spike will obviously be when our storm is, December 5th or 12th or whatever. Like I said yesterday, I'm not prepared to call anything coming up historic or on levels of December 09' or 10' yet but it could be quite snowy for New England.

Admittedly, I may be worrying too much for late December and in 2010 the stratosphere/NAO showed us how it can trump everything else. But, I just don't think this year will be able to do something like that and we warm up for a while. Still, while we going through a +AO, a building warm anomaly in the stratosphere and MJO wave may be on the way to rescue for the second half of winter.

[CoastalWx]

Like I said...if someone could just men in black me with one of those pens to erase Dec-Mar...I would welcome it with open arms.

[weathafella]

In any case, have fun travelling today for those that are travelling. yesterday was a disaster.

Got stuck in lower manhattan at evening rush hour. It took an hour to move 3 blocks....lol.

Frosty Princeton morning in the woods here.

Remember folks, it's 11/20.

[HM]

I think your blog summed it up well about what happened. Just a perfect storm of various factors to screw us.

Thanks. Speaking of which, I think the blog needs some serious attention. I have been way too distracted with the bs of life to write up something but I think it is time.

Man there was just something about those Decembers and you could see the KU storm coming a mile away. Heck you didn't even have to look at much. There are just some things (albeit a few) missing from this upcoming period for me, anway, to make an extreme call like that.. but it's close.

[snowman21]

Really? ORH is -1.5 with a couple above normal days, couple below, then a cutter. Other stations are -2.5, we can look at the facts at the end of the month:)

My tip is don't use first order station normals unless you live next to the airport or on the tarmac. I understand those are the most publicized, but there's a reason we have temperature normals for 27 stations in our state. Across Connecticut today, the normals range from 52/37 at KGON to 46/28 at Shepaug Dam co-op (wherever that is). If I were to compare my temperatures to LGA (the nearest first order station) I would be below normal every single month even in the warmest of warmest patterns.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Like I said...if someone could just men in black me with one of those pens to erase Dec-Mar...I would welcome it with open arms.

Yeah... for me it is up there with a couple of recent big football games which shall not be mentioned

[CoastalWx]

Yeah... for me it is up there with a couple of recent big football games which shall not be mentioned

[CoastalWx]

NJwinter's avatar is like winter '11/'12.

[OSUmetstud]

My tip is don't use first order station normals unless you live next to the airport or on the tarmac. I understand those are the most publicized, but there's a reason we have temperature normals for 27 stations in our state. Across Connecticut today, the normals range from 52/37 at KGON to 46/28 at Shepaug Dam co-op (wherever that is). If I were to compare my temperatures to LGA (the nearest first order station) I would be below normal every single month even in the warmest of warmest patterns.

But it's all relative, the anomalies present at the airports should translate well to areas away from the airport. No one was talking about temperatures in absolute terms.

Speaking of this. I was wondering if my thermometer is off or I have better radiation here than the airport. I've been consistently 5 degrees colder at night. I thought maybe the the higher elevations closer to my SE are draining into my lower elevation location. I'm about 100 ft lower than the airport, too.