Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 One day he'll listen to the pros. You were thinking snow and ice to rain, not a 60 degree sou'easter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The Pacific looks pretty ugly on the ec and ec ensembles later in the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 post 'em Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 If it's going to cut, let it cut all the way. I don't want it going over my head...have it go over Michigan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 more boring -2.6 departure ever run? lol Kind of..lol. But, it's nice to have a more normal November. I thought 11/7-11/8 was pretty memorable but yeah this month has been very consistent. I know some hacks in the private weather business (1 in particular from the UK) that tried to play the long range "rollercoaster" card for November thinking it would be a safe bet for a late autumn month. Well, I've never seen such a constant sensible weather regime! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 You were thinking snow and ice to rain, not a 60 degree sou'easter Talking about New England as a whole, yes, I think NNE could do that. I still think the SNE interior and maybe you could see a mix at the onset or even a brief snow. We are 7 days out so you can't get specific other than mention possibilties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I thought 11/7-11/8 was pretty memorable but yeah this month has been very consistent. I know some hacks in the private weather business (1 in particular from the UK) that tried to play the long range "rollercoaster" card for November thinking it would be a safe bet for a late autumn month. Well, I've never seen such a constant sensible weather regime! lol Well right that was a good storm, although nothing memorable here locally. I was coming from the point of us not seeing any crazy cold outbreaks that would normally cause these departures. It's been steady as she goes below normal over the last 10-12 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 This storm that some of y'all are worried about cutting inland is quite important for moving the -NAO block west and setting up the Dec 5-10 time frame. I say let the bastard cut inland, take your mix (or rain for me) if you're lucky and hope for the best down the road. I'm rooting for that thing to be strong and blowtorch Greenland...lol. Sorry arctic ice mongerers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 This storm that some of y'all are worried about cutting inland is quite important for moving the -NAO block west and setting up the Dec 5-10 time frame. I say let the bastard cut inland, take your mix (or rain for me) if you're lucky and hope for the best down the road. Funny how you say this. It always seems like we have some sort of inland runner/cutter that precedes some sort of coastal system in the time period thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 If it's going to cut, let it cut all the way. I don't want it going over my head...have it go over Michigan... Nick id take the 06z GFS cut scenario any day. Start off as a brief period of snow followed by a mix then a changeover to rain for a while then once the low finally slips to our east the winds switch to north and we get good snows with some lake enhancement off Ontario ftw. Thats better IMO than it going over Michigan and us torching with rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The Pacific looks pretty ugly on the ec and ec ensembles later in the period. I thought Roundy's constructed analog method captured this pretty well and what may transpire: http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/analogs/analogs.html Yes it gets ugly towards Christmas/New Years but mid-December looks good for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Where is Joes torch Wed- Friday? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The sratosphere still looks like it wants to help out down the road. These things called EP fluxes are trying to point towards the poles..although still not favorable yet. This means that the overall mid and upper tropospheric pattern might be trying to improve in such a way that any vertical propagating waves wll be allowed to move poleward and upwards into the lower stratosphere. There is still work to do so maybe it's a good idea to wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Nick id take the 06z GFS cut scenario any day. Start off as a brief period of snow followed by a mix then a changeover to rain for a while then once the low finally slips to our east the winds switch to north and we get good snows with some lake enhancement off Ontario ftw. Thats better IMO than it going over Michigan and us torching with rain. yeah the 06z gfs wasn't bad..if the low cuts over michigan then you have WSW les on the backside. That's what I was getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I thought Roundy's constructed analog method captured this pretty well and what may transpire: http://www.atmos.alb...gs/analogs.html Yes it gets ugly towards Christmas/New Years but mid-December looks good for New England. Oh I was talking about around Dec. 1st on the op and ensembles. Lots of troughiness just off the west coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Where is Joes torch Wed- Friday? Lol mid 50s and sunny, thats all I ever said and thats all it will be.......instead of highs in the low 40s and lows in the low 20s as you predicted. Where is the storm today? How about the whitening of the ground squalls tomorrow, and where is the 4-8 inches of snow next week for all of ne even to the coast.....? You really need to stop listening to BUSTardi, he is abysmal man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Funny how you say this. It always seems like we have some sort of inland runner/cutter that precedes some sort of coastal system in the time period thereafter. Yes, true, there are many examples. The most famous example is January-February 1978. If you get a bonus snow or mix with this first one, then great for you. For late November, that's not a bad deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I can envision a screaming se'ster next week followed by a whiff and then relaxation in the pattern just in time for the holidays and Mt tolland is an O`fer for the month, mega breakdowns imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 mid 50s and sunny, thats all I ever said and thats all it will be.......instead of highs in the low 40s and lows in the low 20s as you predicted. Where is the storm today? How about the whitening of the ground squalls tomorrow, and where is the 4-8 inches of snow next week for all of ne even to the coast.....? You really need to stop listening to BUSTardi, he is abysmal man. I don't think anyone in Sne sees mid 50's except maybe Sw Ct Friday. Lots of low cloud issues the next 2 mornings. Squalls still look on target tomorrow/ tomorrow night for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Oh I was talking about around Dec. 1st on the op and ensembles. Lots of troughiness just off the west coast. Right, but I was implying that this idea of a poor Pacific for a while was a possibility based on the Pacific stuff and that it will still not ruin chances Dec 5-20. Basically I'm saying not to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 In any case, have fun travelling today for those that are travelling. yesterday was a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 I don't think anyone in Sne sees mid 50's except maybe Sw Ct Friday. Lots of low cloud issues the next 2 mornings. Squalls still look on target tomorrow/ tomorrow night for many lol, box has sunny and 55 in tolland for friday............have fun trolling the puppies today:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Where is Joes torch Wed- Friday? Lol going to be mid to upper 50's tomorrow and friday and lows won't be below mid to upper 30s for me. definitely above normal for me, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Right, but I was implying that this idea of a poor Pacific for a while was a possibility based on the Pacific stuff and that it will still not ruin chances Dec 5-20. Basically I'm saying not to worry. It looks like it will get gradient-like for a while across where else....here. I could see it going both ways for a time. It does look like we'll try to pop a little ridge in western Canada so maybe just beyond and the end of week 1, we get colder again. That could be the P1-2 kicking in then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 The sratosphere still looks like it wants to help out down the road. These things called EP fluxes are trying to point towards the poles..although still not favorable yet. This means that the overall mid and upper tropospheric pattern might be trying to improve in such a way that any vertical propagating waves wll be allowed to move poleward and upwards into the lower stratosphere. There is still work to do so maybe it's a good idea to wait. I'm becoming increasingly confident that at some point in mid to late January, a very cold and snowy pattern will setup as the MJO and stratosphere combine to bring those conditions. As always, nailing down the timing is the toughest part, especially with these building up wave 1 setups for a top-down. Overall, this winter could end up playing out like a typical El Niño if you think of things on this level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 XXX2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Anyone have the EC MJO products? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 In any case, have fun travelling today for those that are travelling. yesterday was a disaster. Tuesday seems like the big day now. We're going to Philly around 8pm tonight-should miss most of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 Right, but I was implying that this idea of a poor Pacific for a while was a possibility based on the Pacific stuff and that it will still not ruin chances Dec 5-20. Basically I'm saying not to worry. Are the MJO forecasts still supporting the idea of a PNA ridge after Dec 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 21, 2012 Share Posted November 21, 2012 After last year, I feel like my perception has changed a bit lol. I'm looking at things in a negative light since the sting still hasn't worn off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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