CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Looks like a pretty ugly stretch on the hemispheric scale through D+15. There are signs at the end of the GEFS of hope. Amazing the staying power of the omega block over the Bering Straight for 2+ weeks with it probably lasting beyond day 15. With it a pretty nasty negative height anomaly south of PANC but toward 12/1 there are signs of an NAO switch even with a somewhat hostile Pacific. So not a great pattern but signs of some hope with upstream blocking possibly by 12/1. Even though your affiliate jackpotted SE CT, I was still hoping for something next week to break the monotony of the pattern. The GEFS are very strong for an Aleutian ridge signal given how far out it is, so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Even though your affiliate jackpotted SE CT, I was still hoping for something next week to break the monotony of the pattern. The GEFS are very strong for an Aleutian ridge signal given how far out it is, so that's good. lol that was our competitors. But yeah just sort of a dull pattern... looking better toward 12/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 huh? NOTES: ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. A62/ DROP 6 (35.8N 70.4W)/ 17/0000Z B. AFXXX 02WSA TRACK62 C. 16/1845Z D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 17/0200Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Nov 25 is when things kick off in earnest. Looking forward to that date and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 huh? NOTES: ATLANTIC WINTER STORM REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 A. A62/ DROP 6 (35.8N 70.4W)/ 17/0000Z B. AFXXX 02WSA TRACK62 C. 16/1845Z D. 10 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 17/0200Z 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Nov 25 is when things kick off in earnest. Looking forward to that date and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I just think that flight is a waste of money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Nov 25 is when things kick off in earnest. Looking forward to that date and beyond Euro agrees with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Euro agrees with you. Meteorology not modelology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 looking at that makes me think nov 25th is going to be warm and jb is going down in shame Euro agrees with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Wow-that's an unmitigated torch on the Euro-thank God the 12z is about to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Wow-that's an unmitigated torch on the Euro-thank God the 12z is about to run Lol not at all. Haven't you been reading all the mets posts? It slightly below to near normal thru about the 25th . After that it may get cold and stormy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Meteorology not modelology lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 The PAC still has a pretty stout flow into the US, so basically you want the ridge near the Aleutians to be as strong as possible...in combo with any help on the Atlantic side. It's very gradient like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Lol not at all. Haven't you been reading all the mets posts? It slightly below to near normal thru about the 25th . After that it may get cold and stormy I get nervous when the cold and snow is 10 days away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I can't wait for the white Thanksgiving I was promised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 The PAC still has a pretty stout flow into the US, so basically you want the ridge near the Aleutians to be as strong as possible...in combo with any help on the Atlantic side. It's very gradient like. The past few runs of the GFS have been showing this gradient pattern and some runs have even shown a snowstorm for my area and up through NNE. What do you think of this potential Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Seen 30 minutes ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I can't wait for the white Thanksgiving I was promised. dendrite Posted 25 November 2004 - 06:08 AM ...and my temperature is 60F with a dewpoint of 59F. The windows are WIDE open. It reminds me of Christmas eve last year when temps shot up well into the 50s with warm rains. My cracked hands and chapped lips are thanking Mother Nature right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 The PAC still has a pretty stout flow into the US, so basically you want the ridge near the Aleutians to be as strong as possible...in combo with any help on the Atlantic side. It's very gradient like. Yeah that pattern can thread the needle with some upstream help. I think it's potentially good for snowmakers up in NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 The past few runs of the GFS have been showing this gradient pattern and some runs have even shown a snowstorm for my area and up through NNE. What do you think of this potential Scott? I think its wise not to guess at snow potential this early in the season when we are so far out. All I can say is that it will turn colder with a pattern conducive for more storminess in the east. Can I determine this far out if that means snow for YYZ or BOS? I wish I could, but it's best not to take a deterministic approach. Probabilities for something wintry will increase I would think, especially maybe near you and at least NNE. As I said before, the first step is to get the overall pattern to shuffe. Step 2 will be the infiltration of colder air, but this is dependent on how the exact pattern sets up. It may not be a classic pattern with a GOA low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Kevin to the rescue on CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Seen 30 minutes ago.... Nice pile of squirrel fur, Probably could make a hat out of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Kevin to the rescue on CMC. KFS is running in Ottawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Was just outside walking back from a meeting at another building near downtown crossing...the air was cold and sky had that snow overcast look to it. Obviously we aren't getting snow, but it felt very wintry out there. I checked the obs when I got back here and saw 39F at 1pm at BOS. Not bad with +5C 850 temps and Nov 15th. Avg high is 52F for 11/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 lol what a weenie solution Kevin to the rescue on CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Euro showing "pressing"cold coming just past thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Euro showing "pressing"cold coming just past thanksgiving. AWT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Was just outside walking back from a meeting at another building near downtown crossing...the air was cold and sky had that snow overcast look to it. Obviously we aren't getting snow, but it felt very wintry out there. I checked the obs when I got back here and saw 39F at 1pm at BOS. Not bad with +5C 850 temps and Nov 15th. Avg high is 52F for 11/15. Yeah northerly flow FTW with limited mixing. Clouds help too. Pretty good with an 030 wind. Chilly low levels below 9000mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 lol what a weenie solution Canadian phases the decaying lead wave in the Atlantic into the trailing s/w. It's true that upstream shortwaves tend to phase with approaching downstream trofs, initiating cylogenisis and tilting the trof structure further negative. But I think the CMC is overdoing this interaction as it sometimes does. The Euro did something similar for a few runs a day or two ago and the GFS has hinted at it as well. Obviously the CMC depiction is highly suspicious. The surface low center is likely to remain well to the east with any mid/upper level phasing occurring too late out over the N.Atl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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