ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Over the last day or so I think the theme in both models has been to build the Aleutian ridge up a bit, and perhaps displace the -NAO to more of an east based look. That's ok I think, so long as we get a good cross polar flow from the Aleutian ridge. It will be interesting if that strato split continues and what the downstream effects are on modeling if it indeed continues. My guess is the models are probably going to try and break down the WPO block too quickly...some of them actually fold it over itself more eastward and it becomes an EPO block. I think both GEFS and Euro ensembles have been trending this direction toward D7. We'll have to see how that plays out. If we can keep the block stronger when its in an EPO position, this actually may help us teleconnect the MJO phase 1/2 into an Aleutian low quicker and pump up that EPO ridge even more eastward to where its also becoming a PNA ridge, there would be less destructive interference....that would be getting well beyond D10, but that would really make for an exciting pattern heading into December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Slightly OT but Geoff Fox was canned from Fox Hartford this past week - http://www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-fox-weatherman-dismissed-20121116,0,5233854.story?obref=obinsite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 My guess is the models are probably going to try and break down the WPO block too quickly...some of them actually fold it over itself more eastward and it becomes an EPO block. I think both GEFS and Euro ensembles have been trending this direction toward D7. We'll have to see how that plays out. If we can keep the block stronger when its in an EPO position, this actually may help us teleconnect the MJO phase 1/2 into an Aleutian low quicker and pump up that EPO ridge even more eastward to where its also becoming a PNA ridge, there would be less destructive interference....that would be getting well beyond D10, but that would really make for an exciting pattern heading into December. They definitely have been too fast in doing that if the last 36hrs of trends have been right. Just looking at the H5 differences that I'm able to look at,..they have been trending higher there. You bring up a good point in your last sentence. If we can get the MJO going..perhaps it could nudge the anomalies around to the more climo position of these MJO octants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Just saw the euro for next weeks system. Does it stay cold through the whole event for me or do I see a warmup? It looks like 1 or 2 of these........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Heads up? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 To some degree I guess, but at the same time see coastal's comments below We are heading for dec 2010 on the euro op post day 10 with the NAO tanking like that..the lakes cutter would do it... The startosphere is getting split apart by day 10 on the gfs and euro ops today as well. Good early thoughts last week with the thumb projection/omega type of -NAO initially which is what most of the guidance is doing now. Interesting how the modeling saw the wave 2 / stratospheric potential before the troposphere sync-up, too. Going to be a cold snowy stretch here through Dec 20. I just can't call for a KU or anything historic yet but it is close for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Slightly OT but Geoff Fox was canned from Fox Hartford this past week - http://www.courant.c...?obref=obinsite Trouble is never far behind GFS Rip and Reader's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Good early thoughts last week with the thumb projection/omega type of -NAO initially which is what most of the guidance is doing now. Interesting how the modeling saw the wave 2 / stratospheric potential before the troposphere sync-up, too. Going to be a cold snowy stretch here through Dec 20. I just can't call for a KU or anything historic yet but it is close for New England. This post is just full on 100% frontal nudity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Over the last day or so I think the theme in both models has been to build the Aleutian ridge up a bit, and perhaps displace the -NAO to more of an east based look. That's ok I think, so long as we get a good cross polar flow from the Aleutian ridge. It will be interesting if that strato split continues and what the downstream effects are on modeling if it indeed continues. Yeah I could live with that as well. Though a nice lakes cutter could be the way to turn it from east based to more west based. stronger/more west based nao by day 10 on the euro ensembles..pacific pattern is not friendly in the 11-15 day (similar to what were seeing recently/this week) but that nao would save us from torching, if not keep us normal to below at the end of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Good early thoughts last week with the thumb projection/omega type of -NAO initially which is what most of the guidance is doing now. Interesting how the modeling saw the wave 2 / stratospheric potential before the troposphere sync-up, too. Going to be a cold snowy stretch here through Dec 20. I just can't call for a KU or anything historic yet but it is close for New England. Thanks man, was really just shooting out the idea based off some of the runs waffling back and forth with the NAO depiction... am I a weenie for thinking this resembles early dec 2010 lol? Im not predicting an exact repeat but I also know im not the first to discuss the similarities this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Slightly OT but Geoff Fox was canned from Fox Hartford this past week - http://www.courant.c...?obref=obinsite hmmmm.....Anthony Weiner revisited? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Thanks man, was really just shooting out the idea based off some of the runs waffling back and forth with the NAO depiction... am I a weenie for thinking this resembles early dec 2010 lol? Im not predicting an exact repeat but I also know im not the first to discuss the similarities this month. If we repeated the beginning of Dec 2010, this would cause a lot of premature weenie suicides. We had cutter, then cold period, then cutter, then more cold without much snow in there at all. New England got some on Dec 20-22. Boxing Day was thread the needle of course with very little room but that came in a pattern different than the early Dec pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Thanks man, was really just shooting out the idea based off some of the runs waffling back and forth with the NAO depiction... am I a weenie for thinking this resembles early dec 2010 lol? Im not predicting an exact repeat but I also know im not the first to discuss the similarities this month. Yes. The similarities are there but the things going into 2010 and now are muuuuch different. 2009-10 and early 2010-11 had great internal waves that upwelled into the vortex and very high ozone levels. My worry is that once we give the stratospheric tornado a chance to whip on down (mid to late dec), it will seize the opportunity and bring on a warm/+AO period. This was also my worry in 2010 by the way. The stratospheric setup trumped it that year. If we successfully split the vortex, maybe we stay cold straight through January with a nice blizzard after Christmas, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Thanks man, was really just shooting out the idea based off some of the runs waffling back and forth with the NAO depiction... am I a weenie for thinking this resembles early dec 2010 lol? Im not predicting an exact repeat but I also know im not the first to discuss the similarities this month. Judah Cohen in Harvey's winter slide show says it resembles 2010.........so not all that weenie-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 If we repeated the beginning of Dec 2010, this would cause a lot of premature weenie suicides. We had cutter, then cold period, then cutter, then more cold without much snow in there at all. New England got some on Dec 20-22. Boxing Day was thread the needle of course with very little room but that came in a pattern different than the early Dec pattern. Yeah I recall that being a frustrating month from a snowfall perspective. I was fine with the first snow-less first 2 weeks and a couple of lakes cutters, seemed pretty standard for early winter and it was cold with snow showers...It was the second cutter on the 13th that turned the thumb ridge in iceland to the epic retrograding greenland block. I thought we were prime, only to see the coastal event around the 20th fail (outside of the cape i think) and at that point I was frustrated. That was quickly replaced with some more anticipation for what was a possible christmas day event at the time a week out. I recall it having more potential because we actually had a ridge on steroids out west (compared to none really around the 20th). But the trough crashing ashore the west coast was an issue. When the models lost what would be the boxing day event on the 23rd, I gave up. A wasted nao block pattern and a warm up incoming for new years. Then came the great christmas gift.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Judah Cohen in Harvey's winter slide show says it resembles 2010.........so not all that weenie-ish. I was messing with Chris and there are similarities but we don't have the ozone or wave strength...at least not yet....of 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Yes. The similarities are there but the things going into 2010 and now are muuuuch different. 2009-10 and early 2010-11 had great internal waves that upwelled into the vortex and very high ozone levels. My worry is that once we give the stratospheric tornado a chance to whip on down (mid to late dec), it will seize the opportunity and bring on a warm/+AO period. This was also my worry in 2010 by the way. The stratospheric setup trumped it that year. If we successfully split the vortex, maybe we stay cold straight through January with a nice blizzard after Christmas, haha. Lol brutal honesty! just brutal! Another thought process I remember stemming out of December 2010 was that we were getting extremely "lucky" to be in this cold -NAO pattern (after all it was a strong la nina/ "westerly" QBO), and if we didnt get the snow in this period, then forget it. By January 1st we would be seeing nina/ +AO take over. You and I have discussed many times what went into making all of January turn out epic for the east in the end before the true regime flip took over for February. This later November lower stratospheric attempt of sorts as well as the Aleutian high pattern, -NAO tendency, etc.., was what lead me to finding resemblances to 2010 though...Obviously a lot more goes into it, thanks for the explanation, however degrading it was lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Lol brutal honesty! just brutal! Another thought process I remember stemming out of December 2010 was that we were getting extremely "lucky" to be in this cold -NAO pattern (after all it was a strong la nina/ "westerly" QBO), and if we didnt get the snow in this period, then forget it. By January 1st we would be seeing nina/ +AO take over. You and I have discussed many times what went into making all of January turn out epic for the east in the end before the true regime flip took over for February. This later November lower stratospheric attempt of sorts as well as the Aleutian high pattern, -NAO tendency, etc.., was what lead me to finding resemblances to 2010 though...Obviously a lot more goes into it, thanks for the explanation, however degrading it was lol haha.. A watered down version of 2010's stratosphere / AO but with a decent STJ / different Tropical Atmosphere should make the results different in December. But in terms of the AO's negativity, the similarities are there because we probably are going to average a nice negative period coming up. So I guess it depends on how you want to define it. The AO / stratosphere can (and has in recent winters) dominate anything Tropical Pacific related IF it is anomalous enough. The big question is: how quickly will the wave 1 setup disturb the vortex and will additional wave 2 crests continue to feedback into the Greenland Block? If they get into a sort of rhythm, the rest of this sh-t doesn't matter because the NAO will keep winning. My worry is that it won't be enough and we'll get a legitimate +AO late Dec-early Jan this time. Maybe I should stop worrying so much. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Filler post because we had six in a row from red taggers. The 7th may push the DB over the edge into a full blown outage. One minor note. Despite the cool coastal weather water temps are only running about 1 to 1.5 degrees colder than this time last November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 haha.. A watered down version of 2010's stratosphere / AO but with a decent STJ / different Tropical Atmosphere should make the results different in December. But in terms of the AO's negativity, the similarities are there because we probably are going to average a nice negative period coming up. So I guess it depends on how you want to define it. The AO / stratosphere can (and has in recent winters) dominate anything Tropical Pacific related IF it is anomalous enough. The big question is: how quickly will the wave 1 setup disturb the vortex and will additional wave 2 crests continue to feedback into the Greenland Block? If they get into a sort of rhythm, the rest of this sh-t doesn't matter because the NAO will keep winning. My worry is that it won't be enough and we'll get a legitimate +AO late Dec-early Jan this time. Maybe I should stop worrying so much. lol haha ok that makes sense. You've been pretty consistent with that "it may not be enough" mind set with regards to the stratosphere. The developments are more encouraging up there in the past couple days so it bares watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 You know it is a very boring weather period when the most exciting thing to happen in days is wondering whether or not weak radar echos are reaching the peaks of the highest terrain before they dry out, lol. From BTV: STILL PAINTING A DRY FORECAST, THOUGH HAVE TO ADMIT SOME OF THE RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR (SPECIFICALLY THE NARROW BAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND INTO THE CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS) MAY BE REACHING THE GROUND IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN THE FORM OF A STRAY FLURRY/RAINDROP/GRAUPLE BUT NOT REALLY SURE. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE FAIRLY DRY AND AS BEST AS I CAN TELL FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY, THESE RETURNS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME MID-LEVEL ALTOCUMULUS, SO IT`S PRIMARILY VIRGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 So what did Senor Windex say about the W/E?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I was messing with Chris and there are similarities but we don't have the ozone or wave strength...at least not yet....of 2010. I was trying to make a weenie-ish statement in regards to what he considered a weenie-ish statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 This will be an interesting test. Granted the time range is not quite in the test zone...(although maybe you can stretch it to day 7)....but the test will be if the GFS is still suppressed in the 5-7 day window for SWFE, or have the improvements made to the GFS erase this issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 What a mess, we need the rain so I hope this system beefs up a little over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 GFS looks nice for NNE and maybe starts as snow in SNE briefly? Looking at it more maybe more then brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Is KFALLS still going all snow for all of new england including the coast next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 That never happens Oh it does Dave, not this time though:( Happy Thanksgiving! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Oh it does Dave, not this time though:( Happy Thanksgiving! We could have the same track and airmass in january, and it would be snow/mix to rain for coast. Hopefully your enjoying yet another below normal day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I don't think I'll be your guy's neighbor in SNE much longer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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