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Stuffing and Snow - Late November Banter and Obs


HoarfrostHubb

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I was thinking the same thing. Would be perhaps a quick little burst of snow followed by icing in the interior in the usual favored spots.

We'll have a different look in 12 hours and then another in 24 hours.

yeah i hate getting into the details but whatever...lol...that would be a good set-up for icing as the WNW BL flow is advecting in really dry cP air right up until the last few hours before the system arrives...so you'd wetbulb to like 25F where you are :lol:

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lakes cutter on the euro..its a weak storm..all comes down to the position of the PV and how the wave rotates around it...I like the inland cutting track though. Kind of reminds me of this setup from 2010

compday.97.107.174.50.324.11.48.5.gif

compday.97.107.174.50.324.11.49.50.gif

Though as of now it doesnt look as amplified, but the idea of a lakes/inland cutter with the faux 50/50 low on the move and an east-based -NAO reminded me of it

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foolish to speculate at this hour...but that's what we do i guess...euro has a decent icing signature for the interior (N of the pike type of thing) with pretty good HP centered NNE of NE and LP cutting west...good CAD look

wouldn't shock me ... i've been mentioning that the teleconnector layout likes icing scenarios earlier in this thread and elsewhere. Seeing one pop up on the runs is actually a decent fit for a static -.7sd PNA while the polarward indices begin to decline.

But you're right in the first place, at this time range there's a myriad of options on the table. For the record, the GGEM doesn't look correct.

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that's a cold run (especially considering climo). ctblizz doing naked weenie shrinkage marathons

I think its easy for people to forget that climo 10 days from now (last day of November) has the 850 0C line running near the south coast and -1C line along the pike. The average high temp on Nov 30th (or Dec 1, doesnt matter) is warmer than March 10th.

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Man, I feel like these models are all over the place in the long range

They are. I noticed from a temp point of view the 11-15 day forecasts didn't have a huge sway in ranges here locally, but how they got there was different. Each suite took turns building up and tearing down various blocks whether it be Aleutian ridge (which I think has been broken down too quickly) and the -NAO ridge.

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devil's in the details. but i do feel like there are a couple of players that are "knowns" at this point

To some degree I guess, but at the same time see coastal's comments below

They are. I noticed from a temp point of view the 11-15 day forecasts didn't have a huge sway in ranges here locally, but how they got there was different. Each suite took turns building up and tearing down various blocks whether it be Aleutian ridge (which I think has been broken down too quickly) and the -NAO ridge.

We are heading for dec 2010 on the euro op post day 10 with the NAO tanking like that..the lakes cutter would do it... The startosphere is getting split apart by day 10 on the gfs and euro ops today as well.

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To some degree I guess, but at the same time see coastal's comments below

We are heading for dec 2010 on the euro op post day 10 with the NAO tanking like that..the lakes cutter would do it... The startosphere is getting split apart by day 10 on the gfs and euro ops today as well.

Over the last day or so I think the theme in both models has been to build the Aleutian ridge up a bit, and perhaps displace the -NAO to more of an east based look. That's ok I think, so long as we get a good cross polar flow from the Aleutian ridge.

It will be interesting if that strato split continues and what the downstream effects are on modeling if it indeed continues.

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