Tropopause_Fold Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I was thinking the same thing. Would be perhaps a quick little burst of snow followed by icing in the interior in the usual favored spots. We'll have a different look in 12 hours and then another in 24 hours. yeah i hate getting into the details but whatever...lol...that would be a good set-up for icing as the WNW BL flow is advecting in really dry cP air right up until the last few hours before the system arrives...so you'd wetbulb to like 25F where you are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Just met up with pfreak with the gf in tow, stowe looks good. Place retains snow like mad. Good to meet ya finally dude...now heal up and come back to ski. By then hopefully we've got a good base for some real skiing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 lakes cutter on the euro..its a weak storm..all comes down to the position of the PV and how the wave rotates around it...I like the inland cutting track though. Kind of reminds me of this setup from 2010 Though as of now it doesnt look as amplified, but the idea of a lakes/inland cutter with the faux 50/50 low on the move and an east-based -NAO reminded me of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 that's a cold run (especially considering climo). ctblizz doing naked weenie shrinkage marathons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 12z euro op is almost dead nuts to the 00z EC ensemble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Dumps on VT at the end as the s/w approaches. "So you're saying there's a chance...?" Now for about 20 different solutions before it actually comes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Nice we'll take an icestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 "So you're saying there's a chance...?" Now for about 20 different solutions before it actually comes... I'm sure you'll see some snow out of this..either at the beginning and likely the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 foolish to speculate at this hour...but that's what we do i guess...euro has a decent icing signature for the interior (N of the pike type of thing) with pretty good HP centered NNE of NE and LP cutting west...good CAD look wouldn't shock me ... i've been mentioning that the teleconnector layout likes icing scenarios earlier in this thread and elsewhere. Seeing one pop up on the runs is actually a decent fit for a static -.7sd PNA while the polarward indices begin to decline. But you're right in the first place, at this time range there's a myriad of options on the table. For the record, the GGEM doesn't look correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Man, I feel like these models are all over the place in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 this thing is 180 hours away lol. things we know , it will be cold on sunday. and it will snow at 3.7k in stowe as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I'm sure you'll see some snow out of this..either at the beginning and likely the end. I agree with this, Would be more of a meesy type here, But all just speculation and just take verbatim what ea run shows until we get closer in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The block over Greenland looks stronger than 0z Euro. I'm skeptical that isn't colder or further south.: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Man, I feel like these models are all over the place in the long range devil's in the details. but i do feel like there are a couple of players that are "knowns" at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Rotting just under 32. Hey at this stage not much more than we can ask, so early. I'm sure anybody in the interior would take that. I wonder how many solutions will occur over the next 8-10 runs. I bet at least 1 weenie bomb shows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 that's a cold run (especially considering climo). ctblizz doing naked weenie shrinkage marathons I think its easy for people to forget that climo 10 days from now (last day of November) has the 850 0C line running near the south coast and -1C line along the pike. The average high temp on Nov 30th (or Dec 1, doesnt matter) is warmer than March 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Man, I feel like these models are all over the place in the long range They are. I noticed from a temp point of view the 11-15 day forecasts didn't have a huge sway in ranges here locally, but how they got there was different. Each suite took turns building up and tearing down various blocks whether it be Aleutian ridge (which I think has been broken down too quickly) and the -NAO ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Good to meet ya finally dude...now heal up and come back to ski. By then hopefully we've got a good base for some real skiing Yes dude!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 NZucker will love how cold the 240h OP Euro looks. Arctic Express incoming from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 NZucker will love how cold the 240h OP Euro looks. Arctic Express incoming from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 NZucker will love how cold the 240h OP Euro looks. Arctic Express incoming from the NW. lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 devil's in the details. but i do feel like there are a couple of players that are "knowns" at this point To some degree I guess, but at the same time see coastal's comments below They are. I noticed from a temp point of view the 11-15 day forecasts didn't have a huge sway in ranges here locally, but how they got there was different. Each suite took turns building up and tearing down various blocks whether it be Aleutian ridge (which I think has been broken down too quickly) and the -NAO ridge. We are heading for dec 2010 on the euro op post day 10 with the NAO tanking like that..the lakes cutter would do it... The startosphere is getting split apart by day 10 on the gfs and euro ops today as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 All very exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 All very exciting. LOL, His is bigger then Sams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Another below normal day, day # 6 in a row of 40's/20's. With 2 more to go before a 1 day mild up to low 50's on Friday in torch spots. Just a great early winter pattern we've been in Kfs spot on. Another below normal day here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Someone may get the shaft. All very exciting. LOL, His is bigger then Sams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Someone may get the shaft. Heads up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 To some degree I guess, but at the same time see coastal's comments below We are heading for dec 2010 on the euro op post day 10 with the NAO tanking like that..the lakes cutter would do it... The startosphere is getting split apart by day 10 on the gfs and euro ops today as well. Over the last day or so I think the theme in both models has been to build the Aleutian ridge up a bit, and perhaps displace the -NAO to more of an east based look. That's ok I think, so long as we get a good cross polar flow from the Aleutian ridge. It will be interesting if that strato split continues and what the downstream effects are on modeling if it indeed continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Dumps on VT at the end as the s/w approaches. Hi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Just saw the euro for next weeks system. Does it stay cold through the whole event for me or do I see a warmup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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