CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Lol...our White Thanksgiving storm? Ryan posted it late last week. You had to see it to believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 There are some hints that the central CONUS could torch for a time in early December...it doesn't look warm in NE, but it wouldn't shock me to see a reload period where west of us is torching for a few days and we see temps here creep up...albeit not like the plains. Canada remains quite cold, so we'd just be waiting to pop a bit of a ridge out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Actually just looked out and have quite a bit of frost here at home too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 There are some hints that the central CONUS could torch for a time in early December...it doesn't look warm in NE, but it wouldn't shock me to see a reload period where west of us is torching for a few days and we see temps here creep up...albeit not like the plains. Canada remains quite cold, so we'd just be waiting to pop a bit of a ridge out west. I did get the sense of that relxation and then reloading too. You can see how the EC tries to pop a weak ridge in western Canada and then at the very end of the run, the Aleutian ridge tries to build again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Same station that told us to have alternate plans for travelling tomorrow due to KFS storm? Rain for ENE tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Rain for ENE tomorrow? No, I'm prepared for snow since Bustardi and KFS told me so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I did get the sense of that relxation and then reloading too. You can see how the EC tries to pop a weak ridge in western Canada and then at the very end of the run, the Aleutian ridge tries to build again. Probably the tropical forcing trying to make its presence felt. The EC/EC ensmebles are bringing the MJO into phase 2 for early December which will want to build an Aleutian low and pop a huge ridge out west on the typical composite...however, that would have to fight what is already in place there so I'm sure we will be seeing some very high spread on the ensembles past Dec 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I missed my morning Forky map. eh maybe he forgot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Winter locks in starting the 25th I think we now all can agree on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 No, I'm prepared for snow since Bustardi and KFS told me so. Sfs had a soaker tomorrow. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Drought?? Joe Furey @StormFurey Only 0.27" of precip. at BDL so far this NOV...most of that snow. Since Jan 1st 33.76" liquid equivalent...same period last year 61.56" Expand Wow. That's one heck of a stat-50% of last year's rainfall total. I do worry about dry Novembers though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Probably the tropical forcing trying to make its presence felt. The EC/EC ensmebles are bringing the MJO into phase 2 for early December which will want to build an Aleutian low and pop a huge ridge out west on the typical composite...however, that would have to fight what is already in place there so I'm sure we will be seeing some very high spread on the ensembles past Dec 1st. Yeah agreed. We may see some back and forth in the 11-15day over the next week. That zonal PAC flow may be an issue for a time, but if we can get the -NAO to not be east based, it at least tries to create a gradient pattern for us. On a side note, the 06z GFS tries to get a little inv trough action Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Sfs had a soaker tomorrow. Lol Right...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 One heckuva a 0z suite. Walked the dog last night...frost über alles as it is right now. Heading to Princeton, NJ shortly for my annual dinner with HM. We're returning Friday evening with an arctic front arriving 12 hours later. Best start to winter in many years. OP euro resembles 12/5-7/03 fwiw. My infamous stuck at DFW storm. Haha I almost missed this...we are in for a great winter man, especially you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Wow. That's one heck of a stat-50% of last year's rainfall total. I do worry about dry Novembers though.... Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Wow. That's one heck of a stat-50% of last year's rainfall total. I do worry about dry Novembers though.... Well we are expected to have dry years given these obscene wet years. It will happen...regression to climo. I would not worry about this November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Haha I almost missed this...we are in for a great winter man, especially you guys. yea looks like if we get Dec then its ballz to the wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Well we are expected to have dry years given these obscene wet years. It will happen...regression to climo. I would not worry about this November. we've definitely had the cold this Nov...last's year's dry and warm month--I just had that feeling we were fooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 we've definitely had the cold this Nov...last's year's dry and warm month--I just had that feeling we were fooked. What's cool about this year is how winter-like this November feels and how signals were actually conflicting for December. Last year, we knew December was going to torch and the 2 years before we knew they would be cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Scooter you feeling good about winter pattern from 25 th onwards now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 We kick it off with maybe a 4-8 inch type storm next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Scooter you feeling good about winter pattern from 25 th onwards now? I never felt bad at all about it specifically. I said to watch what happens in the beginning of December because not all signs were wintry. They still aren't completely as Will and I have discussed, but as time goes by...you can see a possible reload due to perhaps the MJO signal heading past the first week of the month. It's very rare to flip the pattern at the beginning of the month and then to keep it that way until 4/1. I could see some sort of relaxation possible which is what I meant, before any flip back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I never felt bad at all about it specifically. I said to watch what happens in the beginning of December because not all signs were wintry. They still aren't completely as Will and I have discussed, but as time goes by...you can see a possible reload due to perhaps the MJO signal heading past the first week of the month. It's very rare to flip the pattern at the beginning of the month and then to keep it that way until 4/1. I could see some sort of relaxation possible which is what I meant, before any flip back. anyone looking for balls to the walls cold from now to 4/1 is surely going to be disappointed....in all the great winters, there's always periods of warmth and rain mixed in...however, memories fade and folks just remember it as an all around good winter....even 10-11 was really only a 4-5 week stretch of greatness around 8 weeks of meh... 95-96 also had almost a full month of torch and rainstorms in Jan after the blizzard on the 5-6th.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I never felt bad at all about it specifically. I said to watch what happens in the beginning of December because not all signs were wintry. They still aren't completely as Will and I have discussed, but as time goes by...you can see a possible reload due to perhaps the MJO signal heading past the first week of the month. It's very rare to flip the pattern at the beginning of the month and then to keep it that way until 4/1. I could see some sort of relaxation possible which is what I meant, before any flip back. Yea Jan thaw should be on schedule. Seriously, a climo normal winter with a good March will feel like heaven after last years disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 anyone looking for balls to the walls cold from now to 4/1 is surely going to be disappointed....in all the great winters, there's always periods of warmth and rain mixed in...however, memories fade and folks just remember it as an all around good winter....even 10-11 was really only a 4-5 week stretch of greatness around 8 weeks of meh... 95-96 also had almost a full month of torch and rainstorms in Jan after the blizzard on the 5-6th.... then there is 93/94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Bunch of spoiled weenies, outside of last winter what an amazing run over the last 10 -15 years, expectations are way too high........my reality check is remembering the 80s, talk about horrific. Another sunny perfect late fall day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Bunch of spoiled weenies, outside of last winter what an amazing run over the last 10 -15 years, expectations are way too high........my reality check is remembering the 80s, talk about horrific. Another sunny perfect late fall day. My reality check is the 60's, winters change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 then there is 93/94 But even Dec 93 really didn't get going until the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 anyone looking for balls to the walls cold from now to 4/1 is surely going to be disappointed....in all the great winters, there's always periods of warmth and rain mixed in...however, memories fade and folks just remember it as an all around good winter....even 10-11 was really only a 4-5 week stretch of greatness around 8 weeks of meh... 95-96 also had almost a full month of torch and rainstorms in Jan after the blizzard on the 5-6th.... Wasnt a full month of torch. NYC saw 20.2" from the blizzard of 1996 and finished January with 26" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 talk about the weather being in cruise control...another day of sunshine to varying amounts of high clouds...40's/20's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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