dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Whoomp...dere it is... I also had frost on my car in the lot at 8:20... First time this year (usually in a garage) I should of taken a oic yesterday morning here, It was around noon time and i have 59 arborvitaes, On about 30 of them where the shadow of the trees were there was frost as long as the trees were high and where the sun was able to shine between them there was none it was kind of cool looking at the angle in which the shadows were cast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Yeah the ocean is still quite warm relative to an air mass like that. The 850mb temperature dips below -10C , making the SST to LCL delta-T rather extreme, so streets will develop fairly close to shore... If the wind trajectory can back into a 350 type direction as opposed to all the way around to 290, you have a decent shot at being clipped on the outer cape by a band. In fact, looking at the QPF on the 18z GFS, it's printing out measurable in orientation down there. 18z GFS shows a very interesting scenario. 00z NAM is also showing this as well, with a secondary shortwave vort max diving on the backside of the trough that enters the OH Valley and Northeast. The vort max digs into the OH Valley and comes to our south, producing a surface low that quickly develops and gives the Cape and Islands some snow. 00z NAM shows this vort max diving into the trough at hour 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 I should of taken a oic yesterday morning here, It was around noon time and i have 59 arborvitaes, On about 30 of them where the shadow of the trees were there was frost as long as the trees were high and where the sun was able to shine between them there was none it was kind of cool looking at the angle in which the shadows were cast I love little effects like that. There are rocks that hold frost on their north sides near where I used to take my dog for a walk. I should go there tomorrow AM in tribute... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Ridging becomes quite amplified near hour 84 on the 00z NAM as our vort max dives into the trough, over Manitoba, Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 I love little effects like that. There are rocks that hold frost on their north sides near where I used to take my dog for a walk. I should go there tomorrow AM in tribute... Yeah, We had to put down a pet today here, Was not a very good day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Duke of Diapers. You are going to be the king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Congrats HUL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 00z GFS continues with the developing secondary wave of low pressure over the region. It still doesn't have it digging far enough south to impact SNE especially Cape Cod, MA with any snowfall. Its minimal at best. Ridging isn't the problem, the vort max associated with the trough doesn't dig far enough south, before lifting off to the northeast. Its a 984mb low in Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 GFS in th emedium range...F. U. C. K YEAH!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Snow for all of us d8-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 GFS in th emedium range...F. U. C. K YEAH!!!! Nice! Anybody catch Harvey's winter outlook tonight? I just missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The freaking arctic comes to us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Lol....first weenie to weenie run of the op gfs of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Nice! Anybody catch Harvey's winter outlook tonight? I just missed it. Yeah, colder than normal, and he expects around average snowfall, but he said if it were to shift either side of average he thinks snowier is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Yeah, colder than normal, and he expects around average snowfall, but he said if it were to shift either side of average he thinks snowier is more likely. Awesome, thanks! Nice weenie run of the GFS tonight. Good vibes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 00z GFS doesn't quite have the handle on the low pressure that develops along the arctic frontal boundary. I think it develops further south. We will see with future runs, but its in the day 4-5 range now, so its becoming more and more of a sure thing. If we could only get a more concentrated area of vorticity to get the H5 low to close off over our region instead of the Maritimes. Cape Cod, MA could see some snow if future runs back this precip into our region. the .10" QPF line is just to our east and the .25-.5" QPF is far enough offshore not to impact us right now, but future runs might bring more precip, especially with the 700mb core coming right on top of the region. Have to watch all models with this one. Does anyone else have a problem with the GGEM updating? My site is slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 GFS in th emedium range...F. U. C. K YEAH!!!! Best run of the season so far, trending in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 The big difference is that instead of the 00z GFS retrograding the Aleutian ridge to the west, it actually migrates the block to eastern AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 No clue how I realized this, and I might be wrong but I am shocked how closely the modeled pattern on the GFS resembles the Nov 28-29 pattern of 1995. Check this out! It's not close to PERFECT, but really close. Here is Nov 28 1995 Now compare that to tonights 00z GFS @ 177 HRS So I went back even further and noticed Nov 26 1995 matched the 00z GFS @ 144HRS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 ....And just to refresh the memories..From Ray's (famartin I believe) winter storm archive.. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/29-Nov-95.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 ....And just to refresh the memories..From Ray's (famartin I believe) winter storm archive.. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/29-Nov-95.html whatever you do, just dont bother making a snow threat thread up here. :-) pretty cool to see how those maps match up with nov 95'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 whatever you do, just dont bother making a snow threat thread up here. :-) pretty cool to see how those maps match up with nov 95'. Haha for sure, that was it for me, I'm still bitter. I'm interested to see if any mets. agree with my "expert" weenie pattern recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 00z GGEM shows a low overhead at hour 120, five days from now. Some heavy precip develops along the front associated with the low pressure center that develops. GGEM is heading towards a 18z GFS solution with a digging trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 EURO looks like a SECS to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/f216.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 EURO looks like a SECS to me. SECS does a body good--shoveling and all. Still hopeful we can get some ground whitening over the weekend. Less enthused at this point. Just noticed my station's gone off-line. Not good as I don't deal well with technical difficulties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 There's going to be a lot of AWTs soon. EC ens are cooler than the op, but the mean mslp is way NW through NNE...i.e. a lot of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 There's going to be a lot of AWTs soon. EC ens are cooler than the op, but the mean mslp is way NW through NNE...i.e. a lot of spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 This morning is the 6th day in a row of heavy heavy hoarfrost here. Smashing any and all records for days of frost on Mt Tolland. It's going to be a phenomenal winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.