Stuffing and Snow - Late November Banter and Obs

[radarman]

Would love a WINDEX type thing to usher in the beginning of winter

If you're in the mood to weenie out sometime the "SNE Heavy heavy arctic squalls" thread back on eastern is a great read. Best event of the whole winter for me.

[Chrisrotary12]

A quick and dirty index finger rule is that 1mb of PG = 1kt of wind. There's likely to be 982mb low somewhere inov western Nova Scotia, with a 1025 or 1030mb high cresting into the TV Valley. That puts the area in a 40 to 45mb of PG between it and said low. It's very hard to sustain a 40 mph wind below tree top altitudes, so that's (usually) 100 m abve the ground. Anyway, the way the atmosphere at the surface catches up is convective roll-overs, and you get these brief accelerations downward. 45 to 50mph wind gusts are an easy assumption - and with CAA differentiating the column and making for some turbulent mixing, that also help transfer high wind pulses aloft deeper into the boundary layer.

The expression is obviously because the wind direction comes from the rough vicinity of Montreal.

Thanks. The rule of thumb from wind is simple. But the mixing down of wind from above is a little more complicated. Is it just that the surface is that much warmer than the cold air rushing in above. Creating a steep lapse rate? Allowing for winds from above to mix down?

[ORH_wxman]

If you're in the mood to weenie out sometime the "SNE Heavy heavy arctic squalls" thread back on eastern is a great read. Best event of the whole winter for me.

I am assuming that was the January 28, 2010 event?

I had 3 seperate claps of thunder during that event. Probably the coolest occurance was the first flash and rumble...it occurred before the snow even hit. The sky was dark like a thunderstorm to the west and I saw it light up like a summer t-storm. Just really bizarre to see in winter before snow. We then got over 3" of snow in about 35-40 minutes.

[ineedsnow]

that day was insane would love a repeat!!

If you're in the mood to weenie out sometime the "SNE Heavy heavy arctic squalls" thread back on eastern is a great read. Best event of the whole winter for me.

[powderfreak]

If you're in the mood to weenie out sometime the "SNE Heavy heavy arctic squalls" thread back on eastern is a great read. Best event of the whole winter for me.

Good signal for upslope snow continues after the FROPA this weekend.... been looking better over the past day or so. Maybe a light to moderate snowfall to kick off the arrival of cold air.

12z GFS

06z GFS

00z GFS

[radarman]

I am assuming that was the January 28, 2010 event?

I had 3 seperate claps of thunder during that event. Probably the coolest occurance was the first flash and rumble...it occurred before the snow even hit. The sky was dark like a thunderstorm to the west and I saw it light up like a summer t-storm. Just really bizarre to see in winter before snow. We then got over 3" of snow in about 35-40 minutes.

Yup. You had some like 1/16 vis (or less) pictures in there. lol. Everybody was going nuts talking about greenish skies, etc.

that day was insane would love a repeat!!

Yeah it was the only truly memorable event in Noho that year unless you count the 5" of slop we got sometime in Dec. Only measured 1.5", but considering the heavy winds and short duration it was very impressive. Lightning detection network had a hit in Amherst, and lots of folks reported +TSSN.

[ineedsnow]

I was in Ludlow for it and you could here the sirens coming from westover in chicopee tons of lightning and blinding snow it was awesome!!!

Yup. You had some like 1/16 vis (or less) pictures in there. lol. Everybody was going nuts talking about greenish skies, etc.

Yeah it was the only truly memorable event in Noho that year unless you count the 5" of slop we got sometime in Dec. Only measured 1.5", but considering the heavy winds and short duration it was very impressive. Lightning detection network had a hit in Amherst, and lots of folks reported +TSSN.

[N. OF PIKE]

that squall event you guys are talking about (err i remember it in 2011?) was awesome. I was in framingham for that event (by southboro border) and i was waiting patiently for that line to arrive and when it did "AWESOME" just a sheet of snow .......i usually am not one for these windex'y events esp out in the low lands but whatever the heck that was that day was AWESOME

will are you sure it wasn't jan 28. 2011. bc i distincly remember a band when living in framingham for (10-11 winter) and it did produce like 2 or so inches in a 40 mins. you have a clue what i am referring to it was def. 2010-2011 winter ?

[dendrite]

that squall event you guys are talking about (err i remember it in 2011?) was awesome. I was in framingham for that event (by southboro border) and i was waiting patiently for that line to arrive and when it did "AWESOME" just a sheet of snow .......i usually am not one for these windex'y events esp out in the low lands but whatever the heck that was that day was AWESOME

will are you sure it wasn't jan 28. 2011. bc i distincly remember a band when living in framingham for (10-11 winter) and it did produce like 2 or so inches in a 40 mins. you have a clue what i am referring to it was def. 2010-2011 winter ?

The one we're talking about was definitely Jan 2010.

[dendrite]

That used to drive me nuts sometimes. I'd see a white curtain over Ithaca College on south hill while 2 miles away we'd be flurries. They were definitely in a slightly better spot for Cayuga effect. If the wind was more 330ish to maybe 340, we'd do better, but 340-350 was better for IC...and that direction had a longer fetch on the lake so the snow would be a bit heavier.

What is the frequency for Seneca producing snow?

[ORH_wxman]

The one we're talking about was definitely Jan 2010.

Yeah, no mistake about that date...esp since the thread was on eastern. '09-'10 was the last winter we were there.

I don't remember any windex events in 2010-2011. We had that one band rip back from the east when the Cape Cod storm retrograded...the 12/20/10 event.

[N. OF PIKE]

The one we're talking about was definitely Jan 2010.

ok sorry can't remember that 1 to save my life

but i do remember a very unique squall line that moved thru framingham after dark for like 45 minutes and it sorta of pulsed back and forth and hung together to at least natick area.

i was just hoping that i could maybe put a date to this event, bc it was pretty damn epic, and i know it was a sheet of white for ORH as well. didn't mean to de rail jan 28,2010 event

[radarman]

From that thread:

Wiz: How strong were/are the winds?

Will: Probably at least 60 knots min...there might have been a few hurricane force gusts in there...maybe even 90 knots.

[ORH_wxman]

What is the frequency for Seneca producing snow?

You see it almost every time there is NNW flow (as long as delta T and inversion heights are fine). Seneca is more N/S oriented than Cayuga so the band won't be as intense unless the wind is more like due north. But it still produces a band.

[N. OF PIKE]

Yeah, no mistake about that date...esp since the thread was on eastern. '09-'10 was the last winter we were there.

I don't remember any windex events in 2010-2011. We had that one band rip back from the east when the Cape Cod storm retrograded...the 12/20/10 event.

will i remember you commenting and posting radar pics of the event i'm thinking of , it was definitely not a big synoptic storm event, but more like a very very heavy band of snow that moved west to east and stuck together for a couple hours. you must remember this, its somewhere in the memory bank, it has to be

i'd like to say it occured in january 2011 could be very early feb as well, it occured a few hours after dark, it was pretty much a white out quick 2 or more that fell in 45 minutes

[dendrite]

You see it almost every time there is NNW flow (as long as delta T and inversion heights are fine). Seneca is more N/S oriented than Cayuga so the band won't be as intense unless the wind is more like due north. But it still produces a band.

When I was doing some research at H&WS I heard some talk about rare instances of LES in Geneva from S winds. Did you ever witness that?

[N. OF PIKE]

Powder freak , the weekend event looks to lack much Westerly flow , one of the 3 maps you show'd seem to have a bit more NNW flow but the others almost due northerly,

[ORH_wxman]

will i remember you commenting and posting radar pics of the event i'm thinking of , it was definitely not a big synoptic storm event, but more like a very very heavy band of snow that moved west to east and stuck together for a couple hours. you must remember this, its somewhere in the memory bank, it has to be

It is certainly possible. It might have not been a windex event though so that could be the reason I'm not remembering it. We had some smaller inverted trough events that winter. We had the clipper blowing up south of LI on 1/21/11 too. We had a couple overrunning snowfalls ahead of main storms like 1/25-26 and 2/1.

[dendrite]

Powder freak , the weekend event looks to lack much Westerly flow , one of the 3 maps you show'd seem to have a bit more NNW flow but the others almost due northerly,

Keep in mind that the winds will cross isobars within the boundary layer. There are mesoscale frictional effects too with terrain.

[N. OF PIKE]

It is certainly possible. It might have not been a windex event though so that could be the reason I'm not remembering it. We had some smaller inverted trough events that winter. We had the clipper blowing up south of LI on 1/21/11 too. We had a couple overrunning snowfalls ahead of main storms like 1/25-26 and 2/1.

i'll try to find it on the box pns events, it was an event that went from light snow to S++ in about 5 mins and ended about as abruptly it wasn't a mulit hour ordeal/ or dump it was 45 mins of heavy snow and i know it effected you over to the 128 /pike corridor, ill try and find it .it's just annoying me right now that i can't

also did the jan 28/2010 event effect the burlington mass area at all (can't recall this event)

[powderfreak]

Powder freak , the weekend event looks to lack much Westerly flow , one of the 3 maps you show'd seem to have a bit more NNW flow but the others almost due northerly,

Ehhh this would work.... 12z GFS streamlines at H85 at that time frame. Surface winds are more northerly but that could just enhance Champlain Valley convergence and probably push some warm lake moisture south into the Spine. That may actually favor the Sugarbush/MRG area. This looks like an event where even BTV gets in on squally weather with flash freeze roads and snow blowing around. Pretty typical for this time of year up here when we get these strong CAA pushes.

And ya gotta remember the northern Spine axis actually turns a little to the east, which is why the cross barrier flow can be good in north to westerly flows. Even a due north wind upslopes a bit from Mansfield northward due to that east turn in the terrain, whereas down in central VT they need a lot more westerly component. The real issue would be for down here in town we don't do as well in northerly events (the mtn seems to make out ok regardless) because the spill-over to the east side is quite limited where town is located. I'd probably favor the western slopes and even into the Champlain Valley on this event due to the convergence of NNW winds into the VT side of the Champlain Valley with less on this side of the mountain, unless the winds come more westerly then it'll drift down here into Stowe Village.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I don't know if you guys are old enough to remember Dick Albert, but he used to have a phrase: "Montreal Express". It's basically when you get these back side deep CAA with high wind events. The more I look at the guidance, we could be routinely gusting past 50mph 132 and 144 hours, from NNW.

Will be cold enough for the Cape and Islands to see OES?

[N. OF PIKE]

_{powder freak you think the lifts could be on wind-hold sat or sun of this weekend}

[Ginx snewx]

i'll try to find it on the box pns events, it was an event that went from light snow to S++ in about 5 mins and ended about as abruptly it wasn't a mulit hour ordeal/ or dump it was 45 mins of heavy snow and i know it effected you over to the 128 /pike corridor, ill try and find it .it's just annoying me right now that i can't

also did the jan 28/2010 event effect the burlington mass area at all (can't recall this event)

Here is the Eastern thread and you posted in it. Kevin had cancelled the Windex that morning, they never work out, then in the afternoon was chucking them in everyone's eye. http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/221274-sne-heavy-heavy-arctic-squalls-then-frigid/page__st__580

[Ginx snewx]

Will I have radar grabs somewhere of streamers coming off the Quabbin? You remember those? Diamond dust night during a frigid Arctic blast maybe 2008?

[powderfreak]

_{powder freak you think the lifts could be on wind-hold sat or sun of this weekend}

I really can't say... it looks like it could be possible but the real pulse of wind looks to be shorter duration (like 50kts+) with a more sustained period of like 25-40kts which we tend to run in. It'll all depend on exact timing too (ie. highest winds at night or during operating hours?).... but overall the wind doesn't look all that prolonged which will also keep any snowfall amounts in check with short duration event.

[tamarack]

The one we're talking about was definitely Jan 2010.

Agreed, though it hit RUM (I was there for a meeting) about 7 PM, so there was no way to see clouds arriving, also no flashes of lightning seen there. It dumped about 2" of windblown powder in 45 minutes. At home we had 1", sadly the last powder snow we'd see that season (no powder snow after Jan in the Maine foothills?) We had the 10" of mashed potatos in late Feb, which became cold slushy rain during NYC's snowicane, then 3-4" wet snow in mid-April. As winters go, that was even worse than last year in my area.

[dryslot]

Agreed, though it hit RUM (I was there for a meeting) about 7 PM, so there was no way to see clouds arriving, also no flashes of lightning seen there. It dumped about 2" of windblown powder in 45 minutes. At home we had 1", sadly the last powder snow we'd see that season (no powder snow after Jan in the Maine foothills?) We had the 10" of mashed potatos in late Feb, which became cold slushy rain during NYC's snowicane, then 3-4" wet snow in mid-April. As winters go, that was even worse than last year in my area.

Yup 1" from that event, And 7.5" the rest of that winter for a paultry 55" here

[ORH_wxman]

Will I have radar grabs somewhere of streamers coming off the Quabbin? You remember those? Diamond dust night during a frigid Arctic blast maybe 2008?

Yeah if the delta Ts are obscene enough and there is enoughLL moisture then you can get really light weenie stuff from Quabbin...but it is quite rare and when it does happen, its like what you describe. No real accumulations.

[toronto blizzard]

How do the euro ensembles look for next weeks storm? Did they follow the OP? Also how are they in the long range?