Stuffing and Snow - Late November Banter and Obs

[powderfreak]

I'm not sure if I ever had a longer stretch of NE winds.

I can't remember a longer time where 4000ft winds have stayed below 20mph...everyday it's like 6-12mph or 10-16mph.

Really one heck of a strong high pressure.

[ORH_wxman]

The weakening of the -EPO is on the ensembles too, but not to the significant degree of the 12z op. Just something to think about it. I'm not even sure if this will deliver as much as an "average" pattern. It certainly looks better, but it could just as easily lead to lower than average snowfall imo. I'm not impressed.

For the winter, or for the last week of November and first week of Dec? Snowfall climo is still pretty low during these next two weeks...esp for anyone not elevated in the interior or in the Upslope/LES regions.

The GEFS have been having trouble staying consistent from run to run, probably because of the conflicting signals in the tropics...the MJO is going to try and promote lower heights near the Aleutians at some point in early Dec while a massive block is in place up there. The Euro ensembles have seemed a little more consistent, but they have been increasing the strength of the EPO block further out in time as we get closer and closer...i.e weakening it less rapidly

It's hard to say exactly how long it will stay there, but we do know it will dump a tremendous amount of cold air into Canada. (it already has in NW Canada) We could definitely end up with little or no snowfall out of the next 2 weeks. In 2010, that is exactly what happened...we had to wait until near Christmas to get snow. In 1966, we saw only a couple minor snow events before a bigger one finally occurred on Christmas. Those two patterns are quite similar to the upcoming modeled pattern. But other similar years such as 1995 and 1964 saw significant snow events occur much faster.

[N. OF PIKE]

i'll ride the kfs. so far it's on a roll, sure it liked a coastal this week but so did the euro, and other globals for a while, and since then it moved on.

the kfs is the type of model that should really command respect once it gets within it's deadly range. and the kfs has been sniffing out winter beginning the 25'th...sounds like that cold air will be moving in with tree shaking violence

[Damage In Tolland]

i'll ride the kfs. so far it's on a roll, sure it liked a coastal this week but so did the euro, and other globals for a while, and since then it moved on.

the kfs is the type of model that should really command respect once it gets within it's deadly range. and the kfs has been sniffing out winter beginning the 25'th...sounds like that cold air will be moving in with tree shaking violence

SFS also favored rain for ENE for the Wed storm.

[OSUmetstud]

For the winter, or for the last week of November and first week of Dec? Snowfall climo is still pretty low during these next two weeks...esp for anyone not elevated in the interior or in the Upslope/LES regions.

The GEFS have been having trouble staying consistent from run to run, probably because of the conflicting signals in the tropics...the MJO is going to try and promote lower heights near the Aleutians at some point in early Dec while a massive block is in place up there. The Euro ensembles have seemed a little more consistent, but they have been increasing the strength of the EPO block further out in time as we get closer and closer...i.e weakening it less rapidly

It's hard to say exactly how long it will stay there, but we do know it will dump a tremendous amount of cold air into Canada. (it already has in NW Canada) We could definitely end up with little or no snowfall out of the next 2 weeks. In 2010, that is exactly what happened...we had to wait until near Christmas to get snow. In 1966, we saw only a couple minor snow events before a bigger one finally occurred on Christmas. Those two patterns are quite similar to the upcoming modeled pattern. But other similar years such as 1995 and 1964 saw significant snow events occur much faster.

nah just for these next few weeks. and cough...that's where I live lol. The thing I'm mainly left with is "well it's not last year." But what does that really mean?

[CoastalWx]

it's ridiculous...and a solid 3 days to go.

The one neat thing we have been getting is a slow NNW drainage to the water as the air cools at night. It's allowed for a couple of frosts that last two night which has not occurred prior.

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't know if you guys are old enough to remember Dick Albert, but he used to have a phrase: "Montreal Express". It's basically when you get these back side deep CAA with high wind events. The more I look at the guidance, we could be routinely gusting past 50mph 132 and 144 hours, from NNW.

[CoastalWx]

SFS also favored rain for ENE for the Wed storm.

SFS abanoned the idea of light rain over the Cape days ago.

[radarman]

I don't know if you guys are old enough to remember Dick Albert, but he used to have a phrase: "Montreal Express". It's basically when you get these back side deep CAA with high wind events. The more I look at the guidance, we could be routinely gusting past 50mph 132 and 144 hours, from NNW.

lol Is this board made up of preteens? He retired in '09 I believe.

[ORH_wxman]

nah just for these next few weeks. and cough...that's where I live lol. The thing I'm mainly left with is "well it's not last year." But what does that really mean?

Well the LES zones are always fickle. You can get colder air but if the flow is wrong then the snow won't be that impressive. Sometimes if the flow is mostly NW or NNW, then only narrow areas will benefit out there. I remember how ITH could clean up sometimes on a 340 wind during multi-band. They would get 6-10" over a couple of days while Geneva and Waterloo might get only an inch or two.

When the PNA potentially tries to go positive is when I think NY State would be looking a bit more favorable synoptically. West of the apps in NY never seems to do well on SWFEs/overrunning events. A +PNA might help get the clipper machine going a bit.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I don't know if you guys are old enough to remember Dick Albert, but he used to have a phrase: "Montreal Express". It's basically when you get these back side deep CAA with high wind events. The more I look at the guidance, we could be routinely gusting past 50mph 132 and 144 hours, from NNW.

lol...we aren't 12.

but yes looks very windy/cold Saturday night/sunday.

[Chrisrotary12]

I don't know if you guys are old enough to remember Dick Albert, but he used to have a phrase: "Montreal Express". It's basically when you get these back side deep CAA with high wind events. The more I look at the guidance, we could be routinely gusting past 50mph 132 and 144 hours, from NNW.

I remember Dick Albert.....kinda. What are you specifically looking at to figure this out?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Would love a WINDEX type thing to usher in the beginning of winter

[Typhoon Tip]

lol...we aren't 12.

but yes looks very windy/cold Saturday night/sunday.

haha - it was intended for dry humor.

it's been awhile since we've heard the old jet engines going over the roof tops, opening the door to see what is going on, and having the trees roaring in sub-freezing blasts.

Not to poke the hornet's nest but 1989 did that a lot in latter November onward - ha

[Damage In Tolland]

SFS abanoned the idea of light rain over the Cape days ago.

After KFS tossed snow

[Tropopause_Fold]

Well the LES zones are always fickle. You can get colder air but if the flow is wrong then the snow won't be that impressive. Sometimes if the flow is mostly NW or NNW, then only narrow areas will benefit out there. I remember how ITH could clean up sometimes on a 340 wind during multi-band. They would get 6-10" over a couple of days while Geneva and Waterloo might get only an inch or two.

When the PNA potentially tries to go positive is when I think NY State would be looking a bit more favorable synoptically. West of the apps in NY never seems to do well on SWFEs/overrunning events. A +PNA might help get the clipper machine going a bit.

they strangest was when cayuga lake would actually produce a band.

[ORH_wxman]

they strangest was when cayuga lake would actually produce a band.

Yeah on the 330-350 flow, it will produce its own band...pretty wild stuff when you have that flow with ideal inversion heights and big delta T...we had that happen on the backside of the Jan 25, 2000 storm...the next morning on Jan 26 we had about 8" of snow in 3 hours. It was sunny 5 miles away.

Of course, those 340 flow events weren't all that common compared to the typical 300-310 flow where Cortland and Preeble would get smoked just 15 miles away while we were choking on flurries all day.

[NorEaster27]

Yeah on the 330-350 flow, it will produce its own band...pretty wild stuff when you have that flow with ideal inversion heights and big delta T...we had that happen on the backside of the Jan 25, 2000 storm...the next morning on Jan 26 we had about 8" of snow in 3 hours. It was sunny 5 miles away.

Of course, those 340 flow events weren't all that common compared to the typical 300-310 flow where Cortland and Preeble would get smoked just 15 miles away while we were choking on flurries all day.

340 alone I saw an event that produce about 6 inches of snow, we had a big event on a 310 to 320 flow where we had this mega band off Ontario that was able to hold together without getting split into multiple bands. You usually need a good syntopic setup to produce in those events, often on a backside of a storm before dry air lowers the inversion.

[Typhoon Tip]

I remember Dick Albert.....kinda. What are you specifically looking at to figure this out?

A quick and dirty index finger rule is that 1mb of PG = 1kt of wind. There's likely to be 982mb low somewhere inov western Nova Scotia, with a 1025 or 1030mb high cresting into the TV Valley. That puts the area in a 40 to 45mb of PG between it and said low. It's very hard to sustain a 40 mph wind below tree top altitudes, so that's (usually) 100 m abve the ground. Anyway, the way the atmosphere at the surface catches up is convective roll-overs, and you get these brief accelerations downward. 45 to 50mph wind gusts are an easy assumption - and with CAA differentiating the column and making for some turbulent mixing, that also help transfer high wind pulses aloft deeper into the boundary layer.

The expression is obviously because the wind direction comes from the rough vicinity of Montreal.

[N. OF PIKE]

has the quabbin resevoir ever produced a band of lake effect snow, too bad a streamer didn't develop on NNW flow and dump on union ct.

i've been wondering if we could lobby the state to flood out about 10 more miles on either side (NW-SE) of the quabbin so maybe we could get a nice lake effect band popping to help the ......umm...ecosystem...ya

[dryslot]

LOL at "some don't get it.". I think you are referencing one person. Everyone else seems to accept a cutter may/will happen except someone who isn't sure if it's all snow yet or mostly snow with a tail end mix lol.

Cutters gon cut

[CoastalWx]

After KFS tossed snow

Yes I quietly told you to abandon the idea.

[weathafella]

they strangest was when cayuga lake would actually produce a band.

You guys on East Hill didn't have the luck as those of us on South Hill. You'd see the bands coming down the lake and voila, a 15 minute 2 inch dump. Happened frequently in the 1960s.

[ORH_wxman]

has the quabbin resevoir ever produced a band of lake effect snow, too bad a streamer didn't develop on NNW flow and dump on union ct.

i've been wondering if we could lobby the state to flood out about 10 more miles on either side (NW-SE) of the quabbin so maybe we could get a nice lake effect band popping to help the ......umm...ecosystem...ya

It isn't large enough for lake effect. You need really a minimum of 30-40 miles.

[weathafella]

I don't know if you guys are old enough to remember Dick Albert, but he used to have a phrase: "Montreal Express". It's basically when you get these back side deep CAA with high wind events. The more I look at the guidance, we could be routinely gusting past 50mph 132 and 144 hours, from NNW.

I enjoyed Dickie but he didn't make up Montreal Express. It actually came from a Boston Gas commercial from the early 1970s.

"Boston Gas Heat is the only way to beat the Montreal Express". A whole song with it.

Dickie didn't come to Boston until after I left at the tail end of 1976. Bad timing...lol.

[ORH_wxman]

You guys on East Hill didn't have the luck as those of us on South Hill. You'd see the bands coming down the lake and voila, a 15 minute 2 inch dump. Happened frequently in the 1960s.

That used to drive me nuts sometimes. I'd see a white curtain over Ithaca College on south hill while 2 miles away we'd be flurries. They were definitely in a slightly better spot for Cayuga effect. If the wind was more 330ish to maybe 340, we'd do better, but 340-350 was better for IC...and that direction had a longer fetch on the lake so the snow would be a bit heavier.

[CoastalWx]

That's a virtual SWFE on the euro ensembles. Nice kink in the isobars to the east, south of LI.

[weathafella]

Sound the alarms for 11/28? KFS again!

[dryslot]

I don't know if you guys are old enough to remember Dick Albert, but he used to have a phrase: "Montreal Express". It's basically when you get these back side deep CAA with high wind events. The more I look at the guidance, we could be routinely gusting past 50mph 132 and 144 hours, from NNW.

I am old enough, Probably not the same Dick Albert i know as i use to smoke pot with him..........

[N. OF PIKE]

Sound the alarms for 11/28? KFS again!

with the kfs , you know what your getting

there are no half measure's or cyptic messages to decipher on kfs, no " look for this or could be a bit of this" , the kfs lays it on the line, and flops the weenie on the table, often violently.