weathafella Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 ice Also rather rare this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I didn't look to in depth, but the ECMWF and GFS are quite similar and the Total Totals for the event are rather impressive at this point. Right - convective looking, then this into the backside for some house shuttering CAA gusts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Gonna be back and forth till we know which pattern establishes. I smell a certain meltdown coming in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Agreed - WINDEX sort of appeal to that. It's been signaled for many runs, but the average poster is hooked on the big ticket events so these smaller deals tend to not be noticed. I've been very interested in the squall and upslope/lake effect mesoscale response this weekend for a while. Some models are getting more robust for accum potential downwind of lakes and in orographically favored areas of western New England. Not a surprise most on here aren't interested though. I am skiing with WINDEX paper author Weir Lundsted tomorrow so will see what he thinks about the potential haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Gonna be back and forth till we know which pattern establishes. I smell a certain meltdown coming in about a week. Lock it in. They'll always be there...as sure as the sun coming up in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Euro colder again with today's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Euro colder again with today's run Even if it cuts, you'll probably have some snow to mix beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Also rather rare this early. It actually ramps up in the climatology for 40N Nov 15 onward, and by mid December it peaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 ...I smell a certain meltdown coming in about a week. Euro colder again with today's run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Also builds an impressive block... over Iceland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I've been very interested in the squall and upslope/lake effect mesoscale response this weekend for a while. Some models are getting more robust for accum potential downwind of lakes and in orographically favored areas of western New England. Not a surprise most on here aren't interested though. I am skiing with WINDEX paper author Weir Lundsted tomorrow so will see what he thinks about the potential haha. Yeah, the true nature of the sounding won't be known until closer in. That looks downright convectively unstable right on up as that core of deeply depressed heights cuts over head. Get a load of that isobaric packing on the backside!? Wouldn't want to be on the lift when that p-wave cross the area -haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Even if it cuts, you'll probably have some snow to mix beforehand. Its pretty common to see a cutter or two before a longer term pattern sets in. Kind of a transitional phase. We saw it in 2007, we saw it in 2005 (couple days before T-day), and we saw it twice in 2010. Even 2008 had that huge torch for a couple days after the ice storm. It won't surprise me if we see a 58F screaming southeaster in here somewhere before a more favorable pattern sets in sometime during early December. The initial cold though will be impressive this weekend, so definitely we should watch for front end snow/mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Even if it cuts, you'll probably have some snow to mix beforehand. Yeah while we don't know yet if its all snow or not. You really have to like the colder trend each successive run as models sniff the block. Snow to ice is possible or maybe all snow. Too early to tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Its pretty common to see a cutter or two before a longer term pattern sets in. Kind of a transitional phase. We saw it in 2007, we saw it in 2005 (couple days before T-day), and we saw it twice in 2010. Even 2008 had that huge torch for a couple days after the ice storm. It won't surprise me if we see a 58F screaming southeaster in here somewhere before a more favorable pattern sets in sometime during early December. The initial cold though will be impressive this weekend, so definitely we should watch for front end snow/mix. Yeah we can say it until we turn blue, but some won't get it. It's an interesting pattern going forward as the whole NAMR pattern shifts around completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Pattern change starts Dec 1st, finished by Dec 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Yeah while we don't know yet if its all snow or not. You really have to like the colder trend each successive run as models sniff the block. Snow to ice is possible or maybe all snow. Too early to tell If you look at the 500mb pattern, you can see the players. Clearly there will be a huge west coast trough. The only way it stays mostly frozen is if the PV can somehow create massive confluence to our northeast. I think in the end, it's going to be difficult for all snow or snow to mix and no rain for a good chunk of SNE...but that does not mean it can't be a messy start. It's definitely had a colder look lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The only thing is some of the factors become less favorable as we head forward after days 7-day 8. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Its pretty common to see a cutter or two before a longer term pattern sets in. Kind of a transitional phase. We saw it in 2007, we saw it in 2005 (couple days before T-day), and we saw it twice in 2010. Even 2008 had that huge torch for a couple days after the ice storm. It won't surprise me if we see a 58F screaming southeaster in here somewhere before a more favorable pattern sets in sometime during early December. The initial cold though will be impressive this weekend, so definitely we should watch for front end snow/mix. not possible. kevin said no above normal days between 11/25 and 12/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Yeah we can say it until we turn blue, but some won't get it. LOL at "some don't get it.". I think you are referencing one person. Everyone else seems to accept a cutter may/will happen except someone who isn't sure if it's all snow yet or mostly snow with a tail end mix lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The only thing is some of the factors become less favorable as we head forward after days 7-day 8. Am I missing something? The OP Euro looks kind of ugly in the Pacific by D10, but it definitely doesn't agree with ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I'm not sure if I ever had a longer stretch of NE winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I'm not sure if I ever had a longer stretch of NE winds. it's ridiculous...and a solid 3 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Why do people care what I think? I'm just offering my opinion on the pattern. Go on with your bad selves and ill go on with mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The OP Euro looks kind of ugly in the Pacific by D10, but it definitely doesn't agree with ensembles. The weakening of the -EPO is on the ensembles too, but not to the significant degree of the 12z op. Just something to think about it. I'm not even sure if this will deliver as much as an "average" pattern. It certainly looks better, but it could just as easily lead to lower than average snowfall imo. I'm not impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Why do people care what I think? I'm just offering my opinion on the pattern. Go on with your bad selves and ill go on with mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The OP Euro looks kind of ugly in the Pacific by D10, but it definitely doesn't agree with ensembles. Hm, just noticing this, too - I would guess it's handling of the circulation on whole between the eastern Pac and western N/A is hugely erroneous. There's so much chaotic convoluted spaghetti gyres out there, one is forced to conclude that the model couldn't possibly have any iota of a clue for this kind of time lead. I'm really not even considering this run for anything beyond this weekend convective/windex appeal - anything after that is riskier than a dart throwing contest for the blind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Why do people care what I think? I'm just offering my opinion on the pattern. Go on with your bad selves and ill go on with mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 The weakening of the -EPO is on the ensembles too, but not to the significant degree of the 12z op. Just something to think about it. I'm not even sure if this will deliver as much as an "average" pattern. It certainly looks better, but it could just as easily lead to lower than average snowfall imo. I'm not impressed. Well the ridge does weaken and allows for more PAC flow, I agree....brought this up yesterday and this morning. However, I think this is when we'll need a -NAO to come through like the ensembles have. The leftover cold from the -EPO dump should be enough to cause a threat or two at least for the interior I think heading towards the end of the week. It's also a possible indication of a retrogression in which some sort of a weak +PNA will develop. So maybe it does relax and then some sort of a resurge of colder air after the first week? Just a speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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