Mr Torchey Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Heading up to Beckett Mass this weekend, highest spot in the Berkshires to our friends cabin. Pulling out some birch cutting it into sections and bringing it back home to split. So excited to get the stove this weekend, hot times ahead in the casa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 35 and sunny, another beautiful day on tap, dry begets dry! Mid to upper 50s later this week, a very mild Thanksgiving holiday indeed. Low of 38 and high of 52 would be normal for bdr on t-day..lol..which the lovely people at upton are forcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 It's just interesting going forward because you have arguments for the cold easing in a more -PNA regime, but some signals sort of arguing that the -PNA should not come back as quickly...and then you also have a very sout -NAO which obviously argues for cooler and potentially stormier weather over the east. So not everything agrees and I would not say it's a high confidence call at the moment. It's also important to note models may break it down a little quicker than actuality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Low of 38 and high of 52 would be normal for bdr on t-day..lol..which the lovely people at upton are forcasting They are? 06824 is my zip code timmy boy.............high of 54 tday and 56 friday, time to put trolling ass alldumb back on ignore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 When's it going to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 They are? 06824 is my zip code timmy boy.............high of 54 tday and 56 friday, time to put trolling ass alldumb back on ignore! lmao http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.18568455508004&lon=-73.18287170410156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 lmao http://forecast.weat....18287170410156 who lives in bridgeport? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Hey Timmay, congrats on the the torch man 55 56 59 wed thur and fri this week.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Can you 2 just lay off the trolling. I'm about to 5ppd both of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Clowns..lol. Thursday could be chilly on the coast with raw NE winds. Friday may be mild, especially CT...but no torch whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Anyone want to donate a room? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 time to cut the crap, guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Nah, still pretty mild. I think it may be something where areas may start as a mix though. it def came south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Impossible, climo favors all snow events, it does not rain or mix this time of year. I'd say more than half of all events end up with some ocean taint at some point, so I wouldn't say all snow is favored over a mixed/rain event any time. Granted BDR is not nearly as bad as GON, and we do go through some good stretches where storm tracks are favorable, but living along the coast you know it's just a matter of time before you're 30 and pinging or 38 and rain while ten miles inland is pounding snow. Welcome to the shore in the winter. Using normal snow and temps isn't really a good way to settle this argument. A normal snowfall of 6 inches just means BDR is capable of squeezing out a couple of low end advisory events in an average winter month, but says little about what happens the rest of the time. All it really proves is BDR isn't a snowy place (the 29.1 days with snow cover average should really seal the deal for those that refuse to believe it). The only way to do it is to go event by event over they years and calculate what portion of the events stayed all snow and which did not. I did this exercise several years ago for GON when I was living on that part of the coast, and it was about 70% of all events were tainted at some point over the years I had data for. That ratio is probably a bit lower for the SW CT shore though, but it's probably still at or above 50% if you were to look at storms where say BDL is getting a nice snowfall but BDR is getting some other form of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 40's to low 50's in your area should do it Giuseppe for tgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 it def came south Well read the follow-up post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I need Eric's cannon shooting out weenies image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 This is month is going to be way colder than I thought. Fully admit it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 LOL, yeeesss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Kevin on the Euro: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I'd say more than half of all events end up with some ocean taint at some point, so I wouldn't say all snow is favored over a mixed/rain event any time. Granted BDR is not nearly as bad as GON, and we do go through some good stretches where storm tracks are favorable, but living along the coast you know it's just a matter of time before you're 30 and pinging or 38 and rain while ten miles inland is pounding snow. Welcome to the shore in the winter. Using normal snow and temps isn't really a good way to settle this argument. A normal snowfall of 6 inches just means BDR is capable of squeezing out a couple of low end advisory events in an average winter month, but says little about what happens the rest of the time. All it really proves is BDR isn't a snowy place (the 29.1 days with snow cover average should really seal the deal for those that refuse to believe it). The only way to do it is to go event by event over they years and calculate what portion of the events stayed all snow and which did not. I did this exercise several years ago for GON when I was living on that part of the coast, and it was about 70% of all events were tainted at some point over the years I had data for. That ratio is probably a bit lower for the SW CT shore though, but it's probably still at or above 50% if you were to look at storms where say BDL is getting a nice snowfall but BDR is getting some other form of precipitation. Thanks for breaking that down. My point was that since december 2000 all snow events along the shore seem not that hard to come by.....like you said you would have to go event by event to get the % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 This is month is going to be way colder than I thought. Fully admit it. May come in - 3 in places. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 May come in - 3 in places. Wow That likely won't happen, and I was proabably one of the least torchier ideas...and yet its still cooler. The thing thats interesting, is that the airmass has not been cold. It's been the high to the north keeping lower level cold air locked in. Usually, you do this by these cold outbreaks that keep us in the 30s for a few days and near 20 at night. Other than the freak snow, we haven't seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 That likely won't happen, and I was proabably one of the least torchier ideas...and yet its still cooler. The thing thats interesting, is that the airmass has not been cold. It's been the high to the north keeping lower level cold air locked in. Usually, you do this by these cold outbreaks that keep us in the 30s for a few days and near 20 at night. Other than the freak snow, we haven't seen that. this weekends bitter cold shot and flurry outbreak should get the big 4 close to -3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Also I don't like the argument that its not cold. Cold and below normal are just that cold and below normal. Several of us discussed why we thought this AirMass would over perform with cold. Sneaky high to the north and its done exactly that. And continues all week till fropa Fri nite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Interesting that outside of the cities ASOS must of us have been recording lows 5-10 degrees below places like ORH and BOS, even BDL low temps are way below. High temps have been similar as well. my monthly average is down to 39.9 which is almost a degree less than ORH and 4-5 degrees below the cities. I am more like -3.5 below normal this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 this weekends bitter cold shot and flurry outbreak should get the big 4 close to -3 LOL, weenie. Later this week will even out departures and then if we do get a milder storm version next week..it will also raise departures, but -2 is not impossible for BOS. If it is -3, then that would be very, very impressive. ORH and its -1.7 tells you the airmass itself has not been cold, but the lower levels are doin' it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Also I don't like the argument that its not cold. Cold and below normal are just that cold and below normal. Several of us discussed why we thought this AirMass would over perform with cold. Sneaky high to the north and its done exactly that. And continues all week till fropa Fri nite You're also missing the point. The overall airmass is not cold, but the reason why we are cold is because of that high. Nobody is arguing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I can see Sunday staying near 30 with wind in hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 You're also missing the point. The overall airmass is not cold, but the reason why we are cold is because of that high. Nobody is arguing that. But that's what Jerry and I have been saying while other weenies are calling for torch tgiving lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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