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Stuffing and Snow - Late November Banter and Obs


HoarfrostHubb

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It's just interesting going forward because you have arguments for the cold easing in a more -PNA regime, but some signals sort of arguing that the -PNA should not come back as quickly...and then you also have a very sout -NAO which obviously argues for cooler and potentially stormier weather over the east. So not everything agrees and I would not say it's a high confidence call at the moment. It's also important to note models may break it down a little quicker than actuality.

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Impossible, climo favors all snow events, it does not rain or mix this time of year.

I'd say more than half of all events end up with some ocean taint at some point, so I wouldn't say all snow is favored over a mixed/rain event any time. Granted BDR is not nearly as bad as GON, and we do go through some good stretches where storm tracks are favorable, but living along the coast you know it's just a matter of time before you're 30 and pinging or 38 and rain while ten miles inland is pounding snow. Welcome to the shore in the winter. Using normal snow and temps isn't really a good way to settle this argument. A normal snowfall of 6 inches just means BDR is capable of squeezing out a couple of low end advisory events in an average winter month, but says little about what happens the rest of the time. All it really proves is BDR isn't a snowy place (the 29.1 days with snow cover average should really seal the deal for those that refuse to believe it). The only way to do it is to go event by event over they years and calculate what portion of the events stayed all snow and which did not. I did this exercise several years ago for GON when I was living on that part of the coast, and it was about 70% of all events were tainted at some point over the years I had data for. That ratio is probably a bit lower for the SW CT shore though, but it's probably still at or above 50% if you were to look at storms where say BDL is getting a nice snowfall but BDR is getting some other form of precipitation.

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I'd say more than half of all events end up with some ocean taint at some point, so I wouldn't say all snow is favored over a mixed/rain event any time. Granted BDR is not nearly as bad as GON, and we do go through some good stretches where storm tracks are favorable, but living along the coast you know it's just a matter of time before you're 30 and pinging or 38 and rain while ten miles inland is pounding snow. Welcome to the shore in the winter. Using normal snow and temps isn't really a good way to settle this argument. A normal snowfall of 6 inches just means BDR is capable of squeezing out a couple of low end advisory events in an average winter month, but says little about what happens the rest of the time. All it really proves is BDR isn't a snowy place (the 29.1 days with snow cover average should really seal the deal for those that refuse to believe it). The only way to do it is to go event by event over they years and calculate what portion of the events stayed all snow and which did not. I did this exercise several years ago for GON when I was living on that part of the coast, and it was about 70% of all events were tainted at some point over the years I had data for. That ratio is probably a bit lower for the SW CT shore though, but it's probably still at or above 50% if you were to look at storms where say BDL is getting a nice snowfall but BDR is getting some other form of precipitation.

Thanks for breaking that down. My point was that since december 2000 all snow events along the shore seem not that hard to come by.....like you said you would have to go event by event to get the %

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May come in - 3 in places. Wow

That likely won't happen, and I was proabably one of the least torchier ideas...and yet its still cooler. The thing thats interesting, is that the airmass has not been cold. It's been the high to the north keeping lower level cold air locked in. Usually, you do this by these cold outbreaks that keep us in the 30s for a few days and near 20 at night. Other than the freak snow, we haven't seen that.

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That likely won't happen, and I was proabably one of the least torchier ideas...and yet its still cooler. The thing thats interesting, is that the airmass has not been cold. It's been the high to the north keeping lower level cold air locked in. Usually, you do this by these cold outbreaks that keep us in the 30s for a few days and near 20 at night. Other than the freak snow, we haven't seen that.

this weekends bitter cold shot and flurry outbreak should get the big 4 close to -3
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Interesting that outside of the cities ASOS must of us have been recording lows 5-10 degrees below places like ORH and BOS, even BDL low temps are way below. High temps have been similar as well. my monthly average is down to 39.9 which is almost a degree less than ORH and 4-5 degrees below the cities. I am more like -3.5 below normal this month

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this weekends bitter cold shot and flurry outbreak should get the big 4 close to -3

LOL, weenie.

Later this week will even out departures and then if we do get a milder storm version next week..it will also raise departures, but -2 is not impossible for BOS. If it is -3, then that would be very, very impressive. ORH and its -1.7 tells you the airmass itself has not been cold, but the lower levels are doin' it.

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Also I don't like the argument that its not cold. Cold and below normal are just that cold and below normal. Several of us discussed why we thought this AirMass would over perform with cold. Sneaky high to the north and its done exactly that. And continues all week till fropa Fri nite

You're also missing the point. The overall airmass is not cold, but the reason why we are cold is because of that high. Nobody is arguing that.

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