Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Good hard freeze again today..26.8 currently. Hopefully killed the remaining crickets i heard the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Winters over. Next. How about we cancel December. The ensembles have lost the - NAO and my fear of what would happen is happening with the snow and cold out west. It will be their winter this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I hate commenting up here, only because you guys can get snow out of so many more patterns than NYC and south can. So when I am sure a pattern won't produce for us, I'm not sure for you. In any case, the MJO teleconnections have been pretty solid since about the end of October suggesting that the first week of December should provide a decent large scale cold/wet/trough pattern for the Eastern Seaboard. I suspect we'll see a -NAO pop around Nov 29 or 30 and then it will be game on. Until then, kinda boring. I know what you mean, but I was more curious what you thought of the overall pattern. I'm hoping for the -NAO too, but if it's weaker or maybe more east based and a low coming up from the southwest, I think it allows for more mix potential here..but I do agree about December at least getting more active. The euro ensembles are hinting at the -NAO, but it's also pretty far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I know what you mean, but I was more curious what you thought of the overall pattern. I'm hoping for the -NAO too, but if it's weaker or maybe more east based and a low coming up from the southwest, I think it allows for more mix potential here..but I do agree about December at least getting more active. The euro ensembles are hinting at the -NAO, but it's also pretty far out. If they are right, then it could get very interesting just past week 1 in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 How about we cancel December. The ensembles have lost the - NAO and my fear of what would happen is happening with the snow and cold out west. It will be their winter this year WOTY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I know what you mean, but I was more curious what you thought of the overall pattern. I'm hoping for the -NAO too, but if it's weaker or maybe more east based and a low coming up from the southwest, I think it allows for more mix potential here..but I do agree about December at least getting more active. The euro ensembles are hinting at the -NAO, but it's also pretty far out. I mean, at those lead times, you can only speak in generalities, but I suspect the first week of December will feature the standard P8/-EPO/+PNA/-NAO configuration. Not all P8s pay off, obviously, but the players will be on the field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 This board is going to be absolute painful torture to read for the next couple of weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I mean, at those lead times, you can only speak in generalities, but I suspect the first week of December will feature the standard P8/-EPO/+PNA/-NAO configuration. Not all P8s pay off, obviously, but the players will be on the field. I'd certainly be happy if we saw that. The PAC is still fairly zonal with fast flow I think through the end of the month..maybe even beginning of December is it decides to be stubborn, but I think it does change to have those players on the field as you mentioned. We'll see how it goes. I usually like to see ridging on either side of the vortex sort of jabbing the vortex from both sides as models show, so that's good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 This board is going to be absolute painful torture to read for the next couple of weeks It's been that way since last winter at times. Normal high for Toronto on December 1 is 40F. I hope he realizes that. It's not always easy to get widespread wintry events even in the beginning of December. Many of our good Decembers started out with a bang towards mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I usually like to see ridging on either side of the vortex sort of jabbing the vortex from both sides as models show, so that's good. Not ideal, since it is equatorward propagating too, but there is an upward propagating wave modeled to perturb the vortex in a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 How about we cancel December. The ensembles have lost the - NAO and my fear of what would happen is happening with the snow and cold out west. It will be their winter this year Son, I love you but you're acting like an idgit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Post count and post history name history when you click his name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Not ideal, since it is equatorward propagating too, but there is an upward propagating wave modeled to perturb the vortex in a week or so. Yeah we were discussing that in the winter thread. Those charts near 70mb actually show the vortex elongated and getting that peanut shaped look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Ryan (CT Rain) is going to teach a lesson today in my girlfriend's classroom, the kids are really excited. Really nice of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Ryan (CT Rain) is going to teach a lesson today in my girlfriend's classroom, the kids are really excited. Really nice of him. Model biases of the KFS vs GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 A nice euro fail for the storm....hopefully that shuts up idiots like Bastardi. Bustardi, Why would anyone follow him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 It was pretty simple, C~weat had not yet changed his signature..............it still said in tiny letters "this is supposed to be fun" weenies are supposed to be perceptive people I am shocked nobody picked that up, easy. Greatest fear of a mild Thanksgiving coming to fruition..........ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Model biases of the KFS vs GFS? LOL could you imagine him teaching about that to kindergartners? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Not ideal, since it is equatorward propagating too, but there is an upward propagating wave modeled to perturb the vortex in a week or so. Most modeled solutions have a decent wave 2 configuration but certainly not the strongest we've ever seen (geopotential peaks ~ 550 m'). To me, this is telling that the state of the stratosphere in the lower to middle levels is still being dictated by the troposphere more than the upper stratosphere. I'm not sure how long this will last but you have to imagine at some point, the upper stratosphere is going to have a say on the AO. In my opinion, I think the upper stratosphere will start taking a beating late December into January anyway which brings us into a very interesting "round 2" for winter but I'm not sure the strong upper vortex will be enough for a blazing +AO in round 1. I'm leaning toward the "not effective camp" for the first half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Most modeled solutions have a decent wave 2 configuration but certainly not the strongest we've ever seen (geopotential peaks ~ 550 m'). To me, this is telling that the state of the stratosphere in the lower to middle levels is still being dictated by the troposphere more than the upper stratosphere. I'm not sure how long this will last but you have to imagine at some point, the upper stratosphere is going to have a say on the AO. In my opinion, I think the upper stratosphere will start taking a beating late December into January anyway which brings us into a very interesting "round 2" for winter but I'm not sure the strong upper vortex will be enough for a blazing +AO in round 1. I'm leaning toward the "not effective camp" for the first half of winter. Yeah, the top down stuff right now argues for a strong polar vortex. We're actually ahead of last year's pace up around 5-10mb. On the other hand, the bottom up stuff is way more conducive than it was a year ago. I'd argue the tropics are behaving like a weak Nino right now, even though we're not at the threshold. There's a strong subtropical jet signature and it seems likely that we're going to get some semblance of an MJO signature to the dateline in the next 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Yeah, the top down stuff right now argues for a strong polar vortex. We're actually ahead of last year's pace up around 5-10mb. On the other hand, the bottom up stuff is way more conducive than it was a year ago. I'd argue the tropics are behaving like a weak Nino right now, even though we're not at the threshold. There's a strong subtropical jet signature and it seems likely that we're going to get some semblance of an MJO signature to the dateline in the next 2-3 weeks. I've been suggesting that as well and we are on the same page MJO wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Bustardi, Why would Kevin follow him Because sometimes he spouts off the best snow chances, even when there isn't a chance in hell for a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Why are you crying? Aren't you a warmista? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Why are you crying? Aren't you a warmista? LOL I like it hot and sunny in the summer, so I can play cornhole and drink beer on the beach, I like snow in the winter, dry and cold is useless..........i want snow all day and all night, but if its not going to snow bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I fear for Kevin, I hope he can get through the next 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 I think some folks are misunderstanding. We are moving twds a very wintry pattern come Dec. All the mets are posting that and are in agreement. So I'm not sure if weenies have their monitors upside down or are drunk, but we're on the cusp of a very speci winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Let me be clear. Assuming the Tropical Pacific goes as planned, we should have a possible widespread wintry event in early December for a NAO phase shift as several of us have been suggesting for a while. To me, this doesn't look like a KU storm ( of course, everything lately has been historic so maybe I'm underselling it lol) and may favor eastern New England more than the Mid Atlantic. I see the pattern going from very El Niño looking to La Niña looking later in December, which will favor snowfalls in more of New England and the interior / Lakes / Ohio Valley (Miller A/B and . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 LOL I like it hot and sunny in the summer, so I can play cornhole and drink beer on the beach, I like snow in the winter, dry and cold is useless..........i want snow all day and all night, but if its not going to snow bring on spring. man the editing possibilities with this are just too easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 15, 2012 Share Posted November 15, 2012 Euro ensembles look pretty good going out in the LR...they have a GOA low...but that doesn't mean the death of us by any stretch if we have a high anomaly north of AK or in the Bering straight area...we spent the better part of 2010-2011 with a GOA low and virtually all of Dec 2007 and 2008. The key is the cold coming over the top of the EPO block and into Canada...and then bringing that cold down into our region either by a little PNA ridge popped downstream of the GOA trough or with some semblance of a -NAO. I suspect when this pattern really tries to get established, we'll have some volatile weather...perhaps even a lakes cutter which will cause many souls in need of help to cancel winter on December 1st or something much like they all did in 2010. Don't fear the GOA low...fear the AK vortex as we have mentioend a million times on here. We don't have a big AK vortex on the horizon this year, so at least right now, no reason to have weenie panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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