CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Yeah up and down sort of look into early December and the gates open per GFS. I stated this before, but even though it is the op run...it may have the right idea of potential cold outbreaks. When the long range GFS op hints at big cold or warm shots..it very well may happen in some shape or form, if the ensembles agree on the similar pattern driving this cold. Ensembles have a smoothed out mean and might not get the magnitude of the cold or warmth. So if ensembles agree that the pattern can deliver cold shots, the op runs may have the right idea on the potential magnitude, if you follow. This is what I mean about a smoothed out mean perhaps not seeing the magnitude of cold and/or warm. Look at the spread in members here. That's why imo, the op runs may be able to give you the potential anomalies so long as the ensembles agree on the pattern. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_12z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 It is worth noting the developing -NAO even before it gets a boost from whatever happens on the 28th. Thats why I left the chance of a "colder" solution. I can see the Nov 28th storm, trending colder and further south for you all in New England, with this -NAO and 50/50 low setup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Again, very gradient like on the euro ensembles with the storm track close to our fannies. There seems to be a lot of wax and wane on the ensembles which to me signifies mixed signals on the ensembles at the moment as we head into early December and part of the reason for a few yellow flags. However, this may be an active pattern with weak but frequent storms? At the very beginning of December...can't be too picky. That -NAO will be key, and I want to see this inside hr 240 before getting too excited. At least for the interior, it's probably a decent pattern. We'll have to give it until late this week to tell for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Pf land is completely bare except for Mansfield, but its beautiful out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Again, very gradient like on the euro ensembles with the storm track close to our fannies. There seems to be a lot of wax and wane on the ensembles which to me signifies mixed signals on the ensembles at the moment as we head into early December and part of the reason for a few yellow flags. However, this may be an active pattern with weak but frequent storms? At the very beginning of December...can't be too picky. That -NAO will be key, and I want to see this inside hr 240 before getting too excited. At least for the interior, it's probably a decent pattern. We'll have to give it until late this week to tell for sure. 1993-94 setting up. A month later the jet will have sagged and we should be on the sweet side of the gradient in most cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 1993-94 setting up. A month later the jet will have sagged and we should be on the sweet side of the gradient in most cases. No argument here. Very gradient like. You and I both know early we can't be picky in early December, but as the weeks go by, we probably would sag that south. I'm really hoping my 3 weeks off is filled with winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Again, very gradient like on the euro ensembles with the storm track close to our fannies. There seems to be a lot of wax and wane on the ensembles which to me signifies mixed signals on the ensembles at the moment as we head into early December and part of the reason for a few yellow flags. However, this may be an active pattern with weak but frequent storms? At the very beginning of December...can't be too picky. That -NAO will be key, and I want to see this inside hr 240 before getting too excited. At least for the interior, it's probably a decent pattern. We'll have to give it until late this week to tell for sure. Yeah it's a tricky looking pattern. Plenty of caution flags. Could almost see a few cutters in that pattern or a SWFE maybe? The models have been very off and on with -NAO. Consistent with the Aleutian/Bering Strait ridge dislodging cold into NOAM but it's uncertain where the storm track will be IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Which of those winters 92-93 or 93-94 was where BDL recorded its greatest snow depth? something like 40 inches otg? I remember living in Bristol that winter and getting lots of sleet in a couple of storms while just north of hartford was all snow, max depth was never much more than a foot in Bristol CT that winter but northern ct and southern and central mass had double to triple the snow depth!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Turkey and frisbees for Thanksgiving. Looks like 50s! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Turkey and frisbees for Thanksgiving. Looks like 50s! Have to remember Thanksgiving is very early this year..the last time I remember Thanksgiving on the 22nd was 1973,,it was 70 degrees..also the day Kennedy died in 63,,it was in the low 60's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Muted MJO activity next week or so. Some of the models show increased convection in the phase 1 quadrant by week 2? Definitely doesn't teleconnect to Aleutian Ridging (as modeled) but you can see the -NAO signal on the 500mb P1 Novie composite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Have to remember Thanksgiving is very early this year..the last time I remember Thanksgiving on the 22nd was 1973,,it was 70 degrees..also the day Kennedy died in 63,,it was in the low 60's Just 5 yrs ago TD was on the 22nd. and 6 yrs before that.... etc. weenies running wild.. we need to fast forward until at least dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 40's and a few torch spots low 50's on Turkey day..Can't complain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 40's and a few torch spots low 50's on Turkey day..Can't complain Yeah looks like a nice day. Still excited about what's beyond Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 40's and a few torch spots low 50's on Turkey day..Can't complain Perfect Jarts weather.. Plug some good aeration in your obsession Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Yeah looks like a nice day. Still excited about what's beyond Thanksgiving. I'm looking forward to it. TBH..I'm happy with the wx we;ve had the past 4-5 days.. Couple cold days with highs in the upper 30's and now we've warmed to 43-45 and should stay mid-upper40's thru the holiday and 20's at night..as long as it's chilly this time of yr it's ok. And to know we're only 7 -8 days froma cold pattern makes it even more bearable. Just a totally different feel this fall. Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Not a drop of precip in most of sne through 216 hours, what a boring stretch of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 With this lower elevation cold mins it's been colder here than ORH. 23 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 With this lower elevation cold mins it's been colder here than ORH. 23 this morning. Yeah I noticed that. DXR was 22 as were a few of the Litchfield County coops. Tough forecast tonight with rad cooling and cirrus deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Which of those winters 92-93 or 93-94 was where BDL recorded its greatest snow depth? something like 40 inches otg? I remember living in Bristol that winter and getting lots of sleet in a couple of storms while just north of hartford was all snow, max depth was never much more than a foot in Bristol CT that winter but northern ct and southern and central mass had double to triple the snow depth!! Not sure of BDL but Boston had 83.9 92/93 and 96.3 93/94, 95/96 is the year they broke 100 with 107.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Not sure of BDL but Boston had 83.9 92/93 and 96.3 93/94, 95/96 is the year they broke 100 with 107.6 BDL's record depth was in January of 1996. 38" 1/8/96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 With this lower elevation cold mins it's been colder here than ORH. 23 this morning. 19F here today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Yeah I noticed that. DXR was 22 as were a few of the Litchfield County coops. Tough forecast tonight with rad cooling and cirrus deck. Yeah low was 29.8 here this morning..but 650 feet was 24. Did they can Geoff for harrassing Rachael lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 BDL's record depth was in January of 1996. 38" 1/8/96 That is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 That is awesome Here are some of the BDL records http://ryanhanrahan.com/hartford-area-records/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Here are some of the BDL records http://ryanhanrahan.com/hartford-area-records/ Amazingly I have been alive for every top weather record you have posted except least snowiest season and low high temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Amazingly I have been alive for every top weather record you have posted except least snowiest season and low high temp. Wow, that's cool. Impressive recent stretch too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Not a drop of precip in most of sne through 216 hours, what a boring stretch of weather. Save for a dusting of snow, hunters are loving the chilly nights and moderate days. I was in the woods all day yesterday in East Haddam and it was absolutely glorious. Didn't fire my rifle once but it was a perfect day. Not too cold and not too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Amazing that the record for longest below 32F stretch was in December. Another stat that shows just how obscene Dec '89 was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Amazing that the record for longest below 32F stretch was in December. Another stat that shows just how obscene Dec '89 was. Yeah we've talked about Dec 89... it really stands out to me as the most impressive monthly temperature record in SNE in the last 100+ years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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