weathafella Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Looking at the inits at h5 you'd think today was way above normal. Keep the fact that hp north mitigates warmth in mind because we're in that pattrn right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Looking at the inits at h5 you'd think today was way above normal. Keep the fact that hp north mitigates warmth in mind because we're in that pattrn right now. Very nice land-sea circulation as well if you really want to be an uber weenie. What do I mean? Well a bit of an onshore component yesterday, but at night when the air cools to well below the water temp...air flows from land to sea. Winds at Logan were NNW through most of the night. This has been a feature all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Y'all see this..Awesome ,awesome stuff Tornado hits stadium in Portugal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 That seems atypical for this setup. Neat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Y'all see this..Awesome ,awesome stuff Tornado hits stadium in Portugal I can't believe the window did not blow out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 That AO and NAO will be at October 29 levels at the end of the month, just need SW to amplify, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I can't believe the window did not blow out. Looked like Ef2 type damage. That would be me trying to film it on my phone lol ...dumb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Looked like Ef2 type damage. That would be me trying to film it on my phone lol ...dumb You kidding? I would be right there filming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 You kidding? I would be right there filming. No I meant I would too but it's dumb. If that window blew the dude is as good as dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi: GFS in totally different world operational and ensembles vs other models in longer term. Trust ECMWF, as usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 @BigJoeBastardi: GFS in totally different world operational and ensembles vs other models in longer term. Trust ECMWF, as usual He is something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Do the ensembles differ from the train wreck op. GFS? I want a negative NAO badly for my Europe trip starting next week. A fast Atlantic flow into Europe this time of the year is a lot of cold rain misery. You kidding? I would be right there filming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 But...he has been throwing out the ECM the last few days because it doesn't show his coast bashing offshore Noreaster this week. LOL He is going down on that forecast I think.... the storm looks anemic and well offshore. He is something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Do the ensembles differ from the train wreck op. GFS? I want a negative NAO badly for my Europe trip starting next week. A fast Atlantic flow into Europe this time of the year is a lot of cold rain misery. The ensembles sort of lost the -NAO. They trended higher with heights over nrn Europe and in AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Wonder what JB is thinking about the euro rolling in now through d9. Lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Looks like it will be a more gradual cold pattern. Step down pattern. Hopefully sometime in first 2 weeks of DEC one of those cold shots is timed right with a nice little wave from the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Wonder what JB is thinking about the euro rolling in now through d9. Lol.... Not too drastically different from 00z out in the d10 lalaland range so I'd assume his thinking is no different. I'm still hoping for an outside shot at some frozen toward the 29th so I'm interested to see if the ens stay cooler, but the operationals and GEFS members are liking the cutter scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Another day.. Another high in the 40's.. Looks like 44-45 will do it today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Another day.. Another high in the 40's.. Looks like 44-45 will do it today Yeah we rocket into the 40s here and stopped dead. Now mid 40s. Should be near or a tick subfreezing tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Yeah we rocket into the 40s here and stopped dead. Now mid 40s. Should be near or a tick subfreezing tonight. Any other yr would have seen 50's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Did you need to change your underwear after DTs outlook? I almost fell asleep half way thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Any other yr would have seen 50's Yeah, to have all of New England pretty much at -1F to -2F (generally speaking, there are areas more or less than that) so far for November, while 4-5,000ft (H85) temps average normal to above is pretty cool. I mean, we really should be seeing 50s/30s instead of highs of 38-45F and lows 15-25. I couldn't believe with a H85 temp of -2C that it would be 17 degrees out when I woke up this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I almost fell asleep half way thru I hope it ends up more successful than this.http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/seasonalforcst/winter01-02/winter2001-02.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Dry dry dry. Another gorgeous day......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Noticed a little ice in a very shallow bog in Wilmington on my way home from work. Nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Not too drastically different from 00z out in the d10 lalaland range so I'd assume his thinking is no different. I'm still hoping for an outside shot at some frozen toward the 29th so I'm interested to see if the ens stay cooler, but the operationals and GEFS members are liking the cutter scenario. I bet that at least starts as frozen for you. It's almost climo to do that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I hope it ends up more successful than this. http://1664596.sites...nter2001-02.htm What a rant, I don't know if it will be better but the length of it is close to this years, But he used more graphics in the 01-02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Mm, nope - this ECM run is highly suspect beyond D6.5 - more so than is even normal for those time ranges. Can't see a -4SD EPO ridge WHILE the NAO is in the process of falling well below 0.0SD in every GEFs member, allowing a +3SD warm sector to run up blithely into the upper OV into NE by D9. The L/Ws also appear to be excessively shortened not only for the time of year, but in particular given to the overall scope of geopotential gradient between middle Canada and Texas. There's like 10 isopleths curvilinearly undulating around an omega construct across the middle N/A latitudes and that just almost never happens. That much balanced mid level wind velocity would require longer wave-lengths. What that means to the dailies, who knows, but I doubt it gets to 70F at ALB in this anticipated renewal of blocking regime. Also, D5 and 6. though far from any determinism ...I wouldn't toss out the idea of a shot of quick open wave potency zipping through 90W/40N around D6. There has been an interval of amplitude flagged several times among the various runs, and the 06z operational GFS went so far as to jolt a band of 3-7" snow from ALB to PWM around D7.5 Ripper frontogenic forcing in that solution! That solution, and a lot of others for that matter don't need very much adjusting at all to pop off a NJ model low type solution. As is, that would probably be a good bet for seeing flakes in the air either way ....maybe WINDEXy we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I bet that at least starts as frozen for you. It's almost climo to do that now. Initially, It would be frozen before the changeover, fwiw this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 It is worth noting the developing -NAO even before it gets a boost from whatever happens on the 28th. Thats why I left the chance of a "colder" solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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