dryslot Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 That's the mother of all cutters on the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 You are like Jekyll and Hyde, nice in person and nasty online I think you misinterpret my tone too much on the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Lol...what I originally saw was atrocious. I couldn't figure out why he had posted it. There were high heights all over the central and eastern part of the county and a big +NAO. I couldn't see what image it was just knew it looked like poo I saw the same. But, I checked back at the ensembles and it did look different..lol...but I figured let it roll to scare some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 That's the mother of all cutters on the 12z GFS You're not kidding. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 That's the mother of all cutters on the 12z GFS All part of the step down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I saw the same. But, I checked back at the ensembles and it did look different..lol...but I figured let it roll to scare some. Scared me into thinking I had Alzheimer's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Scared me into thinking I had Alzheimer's. I thought of you yesterday at the Arboretum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 All part of the step down. Not complaining, I said yesterday we would probably see a couple of these before the pattern sets in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I thought of you yesterday at the Arboretum. My wife talked me out of walking there. Would have been perfect. Too much other stuff to do today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I'd rather have a bottle in front of me then a frontal lobotomy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Lol at anyone thinking a cutter can happen in that pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 All part of the step down. But I thought it was all snow and cold after the 25th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 But I thought it was all snow and cold after the 25th? Quite the yo-yo on the op which I can envision, but a general colder push as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Lol at anyone thinking a cutter can happen in that pattern You really believe a cutter can't happen? I actually think its a fairly high probability that something goes west of us before the cold air can fully come southeast. That cold shot next weekend/early next week looks very transient...with the usual lake effect and orographic snow showers, before we warm up again and get a good sized cutter. I actually think we sort of want this cutter as it looks to form a block and cause the cold to become more entrenched across the northern tier of the central/eastern U.S.... its behind that system that we really have a good starting point to get more wintery storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Quite the yo-yo on the op which I can envision, but a general colder push as time goes on. Maybe I'm just making things up, but I think a lot of good winters seem to have that 1 or 2 big cutters in either late Nov or early Dec, and then winter starts up after that. The big cutters tend to stall out creating a nice block that forces everything after that under New England... I think we almost want that to happen because without a cutter to really pull the cold SEward (setting the table for winter storm down the road after that), we may open ourselves up to more interior tracks down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 You really believe a cutter can't happen? I actually think its a fairly high probability that something goes west of us before the cold air can fully come southeast. That cold shot next weekend/early next week looks very transient...with the usual lake effect and orographic snow showers, before we warm up again and get a good sized cutter. I actually think we sort of want this cutter as it looks to form a block and cause the cold to become more entrenched across the northern tier of the central/eastern U.S.... its behind that system that we really have a good starting point to get more wintery storms. If the blocking and -nao occurs as progged..then no there will be no cutter. Something will secondary or shoot under us or something. If blocking or -nao is neutral or weaker then yes there's a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 If the blocking and -nao occurs as progged..then no there will be no cutter. Something will secondary or shoot under us or something. If blocking or -nao is neutral or weaker then yes there's a chance Cutters happen all the time in NAO patterns. Negative PNA can yank the height fields and the NAO may not be strong enough to fight back all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Maybe I'm just making things up, but I think a lot of good winters seem to have that 1 or 2 big cutters in either late Nov or early Dec, and then winter starts up after that. The big cutters tend to stall out creating a nice block that forces everything after that under New England... I think we almost want that to happen because without a cutter to really pull the cold SEward (setting the table for winter storm down the road after that), we may open ourselves up to more interior tracks down the road. Well I don't have that stats to say that good winters begin that way, but the reason why it may seem that way is because the physics behind it allows for a -NAO. Basically, you sometimes see a favorable Pacific develop that in turn allows the pattern to feature -NAOs with the help of ridging and the associated warm push from strong low pressure heading into SE Canada. This is the kick start process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I think some might be missing the whole point of this and it's getting muddied up by some claiming snowcover from now through Easter, and some claiming the hr 384 GFS op shows a cutter. The pattern will change. Totally. Expect that. Wintry chances will increase heading into December and not because of climo. Expect that. Is it ideal, no...not quite and the direct impacts can't be determined this far out. We may be on the verge of ecstasy on the right side of the gradient..or perhaps be in a bit of agony walking the line. The -NAO is key and that will have a say. Based on what is modeled, I think we will need that greatly. Personally, I like the way things are looking, but it has some looks that I'm iffy on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 Sneaky scooter caution crabby flags flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Sneaky scooter caution crabby flags flying Best thread title ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 Best thread title ever! I am optimistic about this season. Could be decent for BOS, Cape Ann Coastals aplenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Hope everyone is enjoying the 1040mb+ day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I am optimistic about this season. Could be decent for BOS, Cape Ann Coastals aplenty. 1979-80 is behind us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Sneaky scooter caution crabby flags flying LOL, it's not caution just because....just going by a few things I see. It's fine for the interior and I like the overall evolution. I don't throw flags around for no reason, but I understand people don't like to see that. People only like to read posts about heavy snow imminent, but just throwing my 2 pennies in as a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 Scooter said heavy snow imminent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Ensembles end 12z 12/04. Climo max is AOA 40 in most of sne still at that point. Similar to 3/5 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 FTW Allan Huffman @RaleighWx Cold pattern to be in place it seem for December. Dont think Dec 89/10 levels just yet. Bur certainly to favor cold for Lakes/East.#weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 First time I utter this during the cold season. Euro is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 FTW Allan Huffman @RaleighWx Cold pattern to be in place it seem for December. Dont think Dec 89/10 levels just yet. Bur certainly to favor cold for Lakes/East.#weather Did you need to change your underwear after DTs outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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