Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Nice looking cold shot next weekend. Very transient look for now though as it sweeps seaward quick with ridging coming in on the backside right away. Just my opinion but feel like we have a ways to go yet before we truly settle in to a consistently cold pattern...2-3 weeks from now or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Another frosty morning, toasty tday, then cold then warm again. Natural ebb and flow of the late fall season, same things happen every fall LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Well, hope he is ok. Nice and chilly this morning. What did I miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Cutting down the Xmas tree next Saturday in temps near 30 with wind and lake effect flurries flying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Cutting down the Xmas tree next Saturday in temps near 30 with wind and lake effect flurries flying? Depending on the timing of the fropa that may not be tooooo far fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 HGH. Erythropoietin (EPO), actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 EC ensembles keep it cooler than normal from Saturday onwards. (can't see past day 10) Not a bad collection indicies really, strong -WPO, weak -EPO/weak -AO/weak -NAO/weak -PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 So much for the Bustardi storm. It never had much of a chance with him hyping it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Nice looking cold shot next weekend. Very transient look for now though as it sweeps seaward quick with ridging coming in on the backside right away. Just my opinion but feel like we have a ways to go yet before we truly settle in to a consistently cold pattern...2-3 weeks from now or so? I think this pattern may be good for the interior, but I'm still thinking more into the 1st week of December in general for many. There are still some things I don't like and if you look at the GEFS...they are all over the place. That might be "muting" the cold shots which I agree with....but also indicate not every storm may be white. However, if we can keep that thumb look of ridging into Greenland or Davis Straits, that wil greatly help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 18.9F was the low here, We are on a nightly cold run up here teens and low 20's, Starting to get some ice on the smaller ponds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I think this pattern may be good for the interior, but I'm still thinking more into the 1st week of December in general for many. There are still some things I don't like and if you look at the GEFS...they are all over the place. That might be "muting" the cold shots which I agree with....but also indicate not every storm may be white. However, if we can keep that thumb look of ridging into Greenland or Davis Straits, that wil greatly help out. GFS ensembels keep the favorable pattern relatively temporary. I'm not sure if that verifies but something to think about it. In the other thread you mentioned the 50mb polar vortex anomalies. Why is it important that the wave breaking reaches up there when it's above the trop? Is it because the lower stratospheric circulation will reassert itself after the Wave 2 forcing decreases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Kinda surprising to be -2.7 for the month of November and only have a trace to show for it. At least there's some chances the last week of November to throw some measurable on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I think this pattern may be good for the interior, but I'm still thinking more into the 1st week of December in general for many. There are still some things I don't like and if you look at the GEFS...they are all over the place. That might be "muting" the cold shots which I agree with....but also indicate not every storm may be white. However, if we can keep that thumb look of ridging into Greenland or Davis Straits, that wil greatly help out. Yeah I could see the interior and/or NNE having some wintry weather. Sort of climo favored areas anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Kinda surprising to be -2.7 for the month of November and only have a trace to show for it. At least there's some chances the last week of November to throw some measurable on the board. I know you know but it's been a funky way to run low departures. This airmass thats been stuck here this week for example is not "cold" in the traditional sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 GFS ensembels keep the favorable pattern relatively temporary. I'm not sure if that verifies but something to think about it. In the other thread you mentioned the 50mb polar vortex anomalies. Why is it important that the wave breaking reaches up there when it's above the trop? Is it because the lower stratospheric circulation will reassert itself after the Wave 2 forcing decreases? Well the whole topic is about the stratospheric vortex. Around the vortex you have the polar night jet which develops from relative warm lower stratospheric air to the south as compared to the very cold lower stratosphere air near the pole. The whole idea is for this wave breaking to add warmth, ozone, and potentially less westerly momentum to this vortex. If you warm the vortex, you lose the temp gradient causing the strong polar night jet. In some stronger cases, the winds could reverse because now the air near the poles at this level is warmer than the lower stratospheric air to the south. Even though we have the tropopause separating the troposphere from the stratosphere, there is some exchange within these levels simply because they are so close to each other. So the idea of a strong lower stratosphere vortex tied to a stronger vortex in the upper troposphere seems to be valid. Same with a warming vortex creating that top down method of warming and then raising heights in the upper reaches of the troposphere. HM was saying that the circulation still appears to be strong when you move higher up in the stratosphere and that is a potential issue if this wave 2 does not significantly disrupt the vortex. It may build back down. I do see what he means in my limited knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I know you know but it's been a funky way to run low departures. This airmass thats been stuck here this week for example is not "cold" in the traditional sense. Yeah it's this rotting airmass with colder NNE winds and limited mixing. The airmass aloft is not cold at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Well the whole topic is about the stratospheric vortex. Around the vortex you have the polar night jet which develops from relative warm lower stratospheric air to the south as compared to the very cold lower stratosphere air near the pole. The whole idea is for this wave breaking to add warmth, ozone, and potentially less westerly momentum to this vortex. If you warm the vortex, you lose the temp gradient causing the strong polar night jet. In some stronger cases, the winds could reverse because now the air near the poles at this level is warmer than the lower stratospheric air to the south. Even though we have the tropopause separating the troposphere from the stratosphere, there is some exchange within these levels simply because they are so close to each other. So the idea of a strong lower stratosphere vortex tied to a stronger vortex in the upper troposphere seems to be valid. Same with a warming vortex creating that top down method of warming and then raising heights in the upper reaches of the troposphere. HM was saying that the circulation still appears to be strong when you move higher up in the stratosphere and that is a potential issue if this wave 2 does not significantly disrupt the vortex. It may build back down. I do see what he means in my limited knowledge. okay...that's kind of what I was thinking, cool. It definitely disrupts the vortex into the upper levels of the trop/lower stratosphere but it appears above 70/50mb is still left in tact. At least from the EC model forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Yeah it's this rotting airmass with colder NNE winds and limited mixing. The airmass aloft is not cold at all. Yeah... the inversion has been impressive. The summits have all been between like 28-36F consistently this week, while down in the mountain valleys we are hitting the teens nightly with freezing fog and light rime at times. To have 4,000ft hitting highs in the mid 30s, usually means 50F+ down below 1,000ft with standard 5F/1000ft or 15F/3000ft afternoon lapse rate. If one just looks at H85 temps, you would think all of New England below 1,000ft should be maxing in the 50s, not 40-45F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 I'm thinking Thursday and Friday won't be quite as warm as progged...still AOA though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 Love the new model center. Eek, or whoever (Wow?) did a nice job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Yeah... the inversion has been impressive. The summits have all been between like 28-36F consistently this week, while down in the mountain valleys we are hitting the teens nightly with freezing fog and light rime at times. To have 4,000ft hitting highs in the mid 30s, usually means 50F+ down below 1,000ft with standard 5F/1000ft or 15F/3000ft afternoon lapse rate. If one just looks at H85 temps, you would think all of New England below 1,000ft should be maxing in the 50s, not 40-45F. Yeah which is why people saying the cold is "overperforming" are not exactly correct. If we had west winds with this airmass we'd all be playing hackysack, but nobody wants to hear that....they only care about cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I'm thinking Thursday and Friday won't be quite as warm as progged...still AOA though correct ,those thinking 50's and 60's basting the turkey in thongs are going to be a little chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 correct ,thise thinking 50's and 60's basting the turkey in things are going to be a little chilly 60s? 50s probably for a good chunk and a little above like Hubba dubb dubb said. There isn't anything wrong with that. Life will go on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Here comes toronto blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 From what the GEFS shows it looks like a few days or cold then heights rise despite the -NAO. Do the the euro ens show this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 From what the GEFS shows it looks like a few days or cold then heights rise despite the -NAO. Do the the euro ens show this? Doesn't look like they change much, maybe rise slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Doesn't look like they change much, maybe rise slightly. I don't get how that happens with a - PNA and -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I don't get how that happens with a - PNA and -NAO I highlighted why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Weenies, you will never ever have constant heights. Of course heights will rise and fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 Here comes toronto blizzard. Your #1 fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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