weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Coastals. Coastals. Coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Well low 50s here is just a few ticks above climo given this years early turkey day. It's all just having fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I haven't seen Jerry this fired up since Dec 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 11/29/95 repeat? It seems to me that there are similarities in 1995 evolution though pacific in mid winter won't likely be replicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 It seems to me that there are similarities in 1995 evolution though pacific in mid winter won't likely be replicated. Congrats Phil on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 It seems to me that there are similarities in 1995 evolution though pacific in mid winter won't likely be replicated. I remember 11/29/95 quite well. A brief morning blitz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I am fired up. I see things and I'm liking them! But, however, there are just enough flags to keep me somewhat in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I remember 11/29/95 quite well. A brief morning blitz. Strange day. Joy of snow tempered by the sadness of my mothers death. But snow was very helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 What a weenie inverted trough there for IZG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Operational Euro is cooking up a great pattern for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Nice. Loop to see where it's going. Best start to met winter in many years is signaled in the past few model runs. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!240!North%20hemisphere!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2012111712!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I'd take that euro run in a heart beat. Earlier than expected cold shots and then Davis Strait blocking day 9/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Nice. Loop to see where it's going. Best start to met winter in many years is signaled in the past few model runs. http://www.ecmwf.int...s!2012111712!!/ 1994 evolving, that is some great LES and upslope prior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 All AWT.. All of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 KFS has taken over folks. Ride it hard this magical winter which begins in 8 days and locks in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 In Kevin's defense, this week really will not be much warmer than seasonal to maybe a little above at times. With that low hanging out just SE, it will keep his high pressure nrly flow and light mixing nearby. Yeah I don't think its every looked warm... its just that we are now in that in-between time when people get antsy. 45/25 or 50/30 is pretty much dead on average for a good chunk of New England. Today's average up here at 730ft in mtn valley only one county away from Canada is 44/26. Today's high was 40F so far... so another below average day. I don't think its as much that next week will be warm, just boring as all heck. I remember Will going off one spring about how awful days and days of 40-50F is even if its sunny... its like right in between seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 KFS has taken over folks. Ride it hard this magical winter which begins in 8 days and locks in What a.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 you guys are funny - cabin fever has clearly kicked in and we are only 1/3 of the way through the boring interval. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 KFS has taken over folks. Ride it hard this magical winter which begins in 8 days and locks in Really hoping you are right... GFS looks atrocious in the long range with a fast flow way up north, but using any one model (GFS or ECM) is pretty useless in the long range. Ensembles are the way to go. But I'm holding you to that magical winter locking in on the 25th and then never lets go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Really hoping you are right... GFS looks atrocious in the long range with a fast flow way up north, but using any one model (GFS or ECM) is pretty useless in the long range. Ensembles are the way to go. But I'm holding you to that magical winter locking in on the 25th and then never lets go. KFS has a progressive and cold bias. We cool down the 25th or so, then low pressure approaches with maybe a rain or mix to rain and then cooler wx. Maybe even another repeat a few days later. I do think early Deember offers a decent chance of a winter event for some. It's natural to have ups and downs as we cool down and shift regimes. If we somehow play our cards right the storm post 11/25 will be more wintry here, but that may be tough. Unfortunately the KFS snow event on Wednesday is replaced by sunshine and temps upper 40s to near 50. We'll give it another chance next week. Obviously your pattern may not be what I describe here. SFS with another win here for temps when local folks had 50s this weekend. Rip and read FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 GEFS is full steam ahead on winter by 11/25. Maybe the KFS was right???? Pattern appears to be breaking just right with the GOA low becoming much more muted and mega NAO blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Mega block is not one of my favorite words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Mega block is not one of my favorite words You'll be fine with its progged location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 GEFS is full steam ahead on winter by 11/25. Maybe the KFS was right???? Pattern appears to be breaking just right with the GOA low becoming much more muted and mega NAO blocking. With any luck, maybe we can get a SWFE out of the 11/27 or so date. It's hard to tell which is why I'm gonna wait until beyond 11/25. I don't think a few days means a lot, but for some it's eternity I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 You'll be fine with its progged location. Did not look West based? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Did not look West based? Retrograding west in the longer range. My theory is this eventually retros into a huge pna by mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Sunny...mid 40s. This November has muted most torch attempts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Retrograding west in the longer range. My theory is this eventually retros into a huge pna by mid December. -PNA /-NAO............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 -PNA /-NAO............... Probably dominant winter pattern this year with relaxations rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Probably dominant winter pattern this year with relaxations rare. I would be happy with avg, We could use a good one after a couple stinkers over the last few years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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