weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Cold pattern not looking so good now. For where? Costa Rica? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Ensembles rarely have huge 12 or 24 hr shifts in the long range. They are usually gradual. Still shows an Aleutian ridge, GOA trough, and a -NAO. Out of those 3 factors...2 are favorable. The GOA low is not, but hopefully the other two can try to overwhelm that. I think that it's also important to note that we are in early December at this point....climo could still use a couple of weeks of cooling...but we'll take what we can get. I think if this pattern were later in the month, we'd all be money in the bank. To be honest Scott, you and me both know that a -NAO isn't the best pattern for my neck of the woods (except in the snowbelts) In Dec 2010 London had nearly a metre of LES due to the -NAO. So maybe I have to rely on clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 What? I'm not analyzing too in depth, I just noticed that the string of negative anomalies on the GFS have been replaced with very positive ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Ensembles rarely have huge 12 or 24 hr shifts in the long range. They are usually gradual. Still shows an Aleutian ridge, GOA trough, and a -NAO. Out of those 3 factors...2 are favorable. The GOA low is not, but hopefully the other two can try to overwhelm that. I think that it's also important to note that we are in early December at this point....climo could still use a couple of weeks of cooling...but we'll take what we can get. I think if this pattern were later in the month, we'd all be money in the bank. It seems to me that the goa low wants to migrate further south into an EPO position. What do you think? It appears with a throng enough Aleutian ridge it can get pushed around a little. Pattern night and day vs a year ago and sensible wx this month following suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 To be honest Scott, you and me both know that a -NAO isn't the best pattern for my neck of the woods (except in the snowbelts) In Dec 2010 London had nearly a metre of LES due to the -NAO. So maybe I have to rely on clippers. I bet if you correlate Toronto snow totals annually to NAO you'd find out your perception is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 To be honest Scott, you and me both know that a -NAO isn't the best pattern for my neck of the woods (except in the snowbelts) In Dec 2010 London had nearly a metre of LES due to the -NAO. So maybe I have to rely on clippers. You don't want a +NAO for YYZ. If you have a some sort of a trough out west with a -NAO, that probably means lows coming up through the Ohio valley and even if they redevelop...the primary low will give you snow. Like everything, there can be too much or too little of a good thing. I find it hard to believe a modest -NAO would be bad for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Model center is way cool... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I bet if you correlate Toronto snow totals annually to NAO you'd find out your perception is wrong. A neutral NAO seems to be best for a great lakes storm track coming out of the gulf. Personally I prefer a -NAO for lake effect and clipper potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 You don't want a +NAO for YYZ. If you have a some sort of a trough out west with a -NAO, that probably means lows coming up through the Ohio valley and even if they redevelop...the primary low will give you snow. Like everything, there can be too much or too little of a good thing. I find it hard to believe a modest -NAO would be bad for YYZ. Well I guess it can't be that bad but it has to be primarily an east-based block for those miller B's to bring us good snow. A +NAO like last winter was horrible but then again wasn't 2007-08 mostly a +NAO. We had 90'' that winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 It seems to me that the goa low wants to migrate further south into an EPO position. What do you think? It appears with a throng enough Aleutian ridge it can get pushed around a little. Pattern night and day vs a year ago and sensible wx this month following suit. Yeah that retrogression is hinted at on the euro ensembles and even on the GEFS. It may being try to fit the week 3 depiction on the weeklies. Since it is just occurring at the tail end of the ensembles, it's tough to say whether that is a hiccup or a legit trend. If the tropical cionvection decides to move towards P1 or P2, then perhaps it's legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Well I guess it can't be that bad but it has to be primarily an east-based block for those miller B's to bring us good snow. A +NAO like last winter was horrible but then again wasn't 2007-08 mostly a +NAO. We had 90'' that winter Well, see the Pacific. You want some sort of ridge near AK or Aleutians. That made all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Meanwhile at the legion of doom....it's still freaking 43-46 and windy. This fall sucks. FALMOUTH PTSUNNY 46 34 61 NE13G22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I'm not analyzing too in depth, I just noticed that the string of negative anomalies on the GFS have been replaced with very positive ones. Well let me say again, we may yo-yo for a time into early December. As December roles in, I don't think we'll have continuous frigid temps since climo is barely wintry at this point. We also still fight the PAC jet which may keep the "coldest" weather into Canada, but I would expect chunks of it to break off if the pattern modeled comes true, and the overall looks is below normal as of now. With the -NAO we still may be having a gradient pattern across the northeast given how the west looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Well, see the Pacific. You want some sort of ridge near AK or Aleutians. That made all the difference. And the euro SIPS has at least hinted at a similar setup like 07-08 for my area and NNE if I read correctly with a big ridge over the Aleutians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Weenies need to chillax a bit. I understand that a winter like last year can make you a negative nelly, but it is still mid Novmber and the upcoming pattern looks nothing like last season. Try to rein in the panic before you hit "post". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 For the Sultan, on my way home yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Valdez snow depth slowly coming up. 16 inches November snow so far with a current depth of 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 You don't want a +NAO for YYZ. If you have a some sort of a trough out west with a -NAO, that probably means lows coming up through the Ohio valley and even if they redevelop...the primary low will give you snow. Like everything, there can be too much or too little of a good thing. I find it hard to believe a modest -NAO would be bad for YYZ. I think he wants -NAO, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Valdez snow depth slowly coming up. 16 inches November snow so far with a current depth of 10. I don't think we want to be rooting for Valdez snow, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Here comes the coastal on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I don't think we want to be rooting for Valdez snow, right? Right. Because if it happens, I'm there for a spell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 The coastal would certainly thwart a warm thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Right. Because if it happens, I'm there for a spell. What a mess for models this has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I would think it pretty much stays offshore except maybe some drizzle or light rain on the Cape at the worst, but I suppose it bears watching. I would be surprised if the Canadian happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Weenies need to chillax a bit. I understand that a winter like last year can make you a negative nelly, but it is still mid Novmber and the upcoming pattern looks nothing like last season. Try to rein in the panic before you hit "panic". lol....fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Warm tgiving in deep Doo Doo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Warm tgiving in deep Doo Doo Frisbees will fly T-Day or Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Thanksgiving dinner on the deck & patio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I think the lower levels may blunt the thanksgiving warmth considerably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I think the lower levels may blunt the thanksgiving warmth considerably. Just have some fun trolling Kev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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