NJwinter23 Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 It certainly does look interesting around the magical December 5th time frame. Someone on here brought up the idea (maybe it was Chris) that after the Scandanavian block, we transition into something resembling a more omega-styled block in the North Atlantic. Perhaps a "thumb" projection into Greenland is possible if we can muster up a good cyclonic wave breaker in the last week or so of November that can force the block west. The nature of a thumb/omega block would fit nicely with the wave 2 forecast and would certainly be different than the rex-styled blocking in 2009-10 and 2010-11. Block or no block, both scenarios would favor New England over the Mid Atlantic. being that I now live about 5 miles northeast of the mid-Atlantic/New England border, I shall take this as hook, line and sinker snow heaven on the way for my backyard. Anything less and I'm taking my complaints to you.. Lol anyhow, yeah I was jogging those ideas about the nao earlier today, we'll see I guess! At this point I am satisfied to see very cold air filling Canada for the beginning of Met winter, and going from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 As someone who has to work the busiest travel week of the year, I am loving the quiet stretch. I am actually enjoying it, We are getting the ground to dry in turn will make things easier to freeze up, Folks that are hunting right now are noticing with the colder temps over this week at night low 20's and the high 30's the woods are staying frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 This is perfect weather for seasoning all the wood I have cut over the last couple weeks, looks like another ten days as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 The EC ensembles are quite notable with the -NAO. Very impressive for an hr 360 prog. The EC ensembles are quite notable with the -NAO. Very impressive for an hr 360 prog. It is also weakening the Aleutian ridge, but a shift WSW is noted with that and the AK trough. Perhaps it's the pattern shuffling around maybe due to P1 or so from tropical forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 The EC ensembles are quite notable with the -NAO. Very impressive for an hr 360 prog. It is also weakening the Aleutian ridge, but a shift WSW is noted with that and the AK trough. Perhaps it's the pattern shuffling around maybe due to P1 or so from tropical forcing. Definitely a good ensemble run today in that regard, and not a run of the mill north atlantic ridge verbatim... Again, i'll believe it when i see it within day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I' m ready for winter to fire up Nov 25th. 9 days.. 9 days left in the period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I' m ready for winter to fire up Nov 25th. 9 days.. 9 days left in the period Did you get my PM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Definitely a good ensemble run today in that regard, and not a run of the mill north atlantic ridge verbatim... Again, i'll believe it when i see it within day 10 Yeah many signs are pointing that way. If I may extrapolate, that WSW shift I noted ended with heights trying to come up in the west. I wonder if that is the hint of week 3 +PNA on the weeklies. I like seeing the "handoff" if you will, of the end of the ensembles into the weeklies. They sort of jive right now, and given everything else in the world of global oscillations and teleconnections..it makes sense. Like you, inside hr 240 will be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 As someone who has to work the busiest travel week of the year, I am loving the quiet stretch. blasphemy you'd be enjoying a foot or two on the s shore more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 No cred at all for the GFS moving west again? The Euro shifted 500 miles east after the GFS, now the GFS shifts back west. If anything its has been an interesting modeling week. good point ginx, haven't checked to see if gefs support it, but if they do , would be intersting to see if euro ens shift west in next day or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 With a couple of Steel Reserve 40s, Two of those in a half hour on an empty stomach last weekend were damaging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Yeah many signs are pointing that way. If I may extrapolate, that WSW shift I noted ended with heights trying to come up in the west. I wonder if that is the hint of week 3 +PNA on the weeklies. I like seeing the "handoff" if you will, of the end of the ensembles into the weeklies. They sort of jive right now, and given everything else in the world of global oscillations and teleconnections..it makes sense. Like you, inside hr 240 will be nice. The forecast for the MJO to go into phase 1/2 and potentially strengthen in phase 2 would match well for western ridging in early December. That El Nino influence might be doing that. It won't be nearly strong enough to get rid of the Aleutian ridge in all likelihood...but it could push that GOA trough westward and pump up the ridge a bit in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 The forecast for the MJO to go into phase 1/2 and potentially strengthen in phase 2 would match well for western ridging in early December. That El Nino influence might be doing that. It won't be nearly strong enough to get rid of the Aleutian ridge in all likelihood...but it could push that GOA trough westward and pump up the ridge a bit in the west. That's what it kind of looked like to me. As the low shifted a bit, heights were rising in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 New Model center is cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 New Model center is cool Who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Who? Look up http://models.americanwx.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Look up http://models.americanwx.com/ Cool. Didn't see it on my phone, but nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 16, 2012 Author Share Posted November 16, 2012 Look up http://models.americanwx.com/ Sweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I guess the west trend is done on the goofus lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 I' m ready for winter to fire up Nov 25th. 9 days.. 9 days left in the period You may be right... your favorite model, the GFS at 18z agrees with a FROPA on the 25th, followed by our first decent upslope snowstorm of the season on the 26th-28th with NW CAA flow and a cut-off low over the Maritimes/Northern ME region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Amen. Same for all of those folks who have to drive/fly/train to whereever they celebrate thanksgiving. Meh.....I'm fine driving through a blizzard for 275 miles from Boston to Princeton, NJ. Having dinner with HM on Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 You may be right... your favorite model, the GFS at 18z agrees with a FROPA on the 25th, followed by our first decent upslope snowstorm of the season on the 26th-28th with NW CAA flow and a cut-off low over the Maritimes/Northern ME region . Hope its right, I plan on skiing in the greens that time frame! I can swing 116 for the two day pass, just give me ice free conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Gfs is nice tonite. It's coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Gfs is nice tonite. It's coming! It has a modestly strong cold shot after Thanksgiving with -10C 850s coming into the area. In the long range, the -NAO and Aleutian ridge go crazy and bring the hounds down: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Check this out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Hammer drop coming soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Stuffing and what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 17, 2012 Author Share Posted November 17, 2012 Big event on Jerry's birthday incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I've had more frosts over the last 4-5 mornings than I've had combined since I've lived in this house the last 7+ yrs. Odd. Maybe this is the first normal cold, wintry type fall we've had in that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 Euro says winter starts Nov 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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