wxhstn74 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/11/weak-el-nino-this-winter-much-ado-about.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceJA91 Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Here are two links from WTHI here in the Wabash Valley winter forecasts. They are the main Meteorologists down here. http://www.wthitv.com/dpp/weather/kevin_orpurt/kevins-2012-2013-winter-forecast#.UKQO0DCM30Y http://www.wthitv.com/dpp/weather/winter_weather/daves-2012-2013-winter-weather-forecast#.UKQOCzCM30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 16, 2012 Share Posted November 16, 2012 Here is DTX's outlook for SE Michigan. Basically near to slightly colder than normal temps and average snowfall http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/dtx/web/dtx_winter_2012_2013.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 17, 2012 Share Posted November 17, 2012 I'd take it over last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Here is the www.midwestweather.org winter forecast the map basically tells it all click the link for more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Looks like most are calling for clippers to bring most of our snow...I'm fine with that. Usually those are cold winters locally, good for snow cover. Lake effect should be plentiful for lake belts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Sorry gotta run with this as of now.. Gotta factor in the New Climo and plus long term trends aren't looking the hottest.TempsPrecip/Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Sorry gotta run with this as of now.. You're trying too hard. Nice sig BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 You're trying too hard. Haha i'm not anti-jynxking or anything trust me.. I'm dead serious. I've fully hopped on the Cromartie bandwagon sorry Torch away!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 What about the white areas inbetween the squiggles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Haha i'm not anti-jynxking or anything trust me.. I'm dead serious. I've fully hopped on the Cromartie bandwagon sorry Torch away!! And LOL thanks! I'm greeted by it almost daily up at the top when I browse the forums, might as well keep it! lol, you have zero reasoning/explanation for your outlook. Not that UW-weather has an ounce for his either. We don't need more trolls. Thought you were cool. Alas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 What about the white areas inbetween the squiggles? Covered in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 What about the white areas inbetween the squiggles? Strange microclimates. Always end up with a few of those when you look back at temp/precip plots.. lol, you have zero reasoning/explanation for your outlook. Not that UW-weather has an ounce for his either. We don't need more trolls. Thought you were cool. Alas... -GOA Low STILL Torching away at the mid-section. (Our friend Doesn't look to go away anytime soon) - Plains Drought Still going strong although some improvement for Eastern Lakes. (WIll create one hell of a feedback cycle like we saw this past Spring and Summer) Don't see any hope in the near team to knock this bad boy down unfortunately so the problem will be with us through the winter. - East Coast Storm track due to Warm waters off of the Coast.. I am still cool! I just don't like cold/snow anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 lol, you have zero reasoning/explanation for your outlook. Not that UW-weather has an ounce for his either. We don't need more trolls. Thought you were cool. Alas... Its such a reasonable, meteorologically well-thought out outlook. But it contradicts with my outlook. Trends clearly show the midwest -2 to -5F with much above normal snowfall. Jokes/trolling aside....you can be sure that outlook is wrong. Id love to see a winter thats significantly colder than normal up and down the eastern seaboard and warm everywhere else. Wonder when Bill issues the rest of his outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Looks like most are calling for clippers to bring most of our snow...I'm fine with that. Usually those are cold winters locally, good for snow cover. Lake effect should be plentiful for lake belts. Its actually crazy how many outlooks have been harping on the clipper express. Like you, a winter like that is fine by me. May not have the gawdy snowfall totals at seasons end but those are the perfect winters for the folks who simply enjoy "winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Its actually crazy how many outlooks have been harping on the clipper express. Like you, a winter like that is fine by me. May not have the gawdy snowfall totals at seasons end but those are the perfect winters for the folks who simply enjoy "winter". Those are the winter's usually where the snow cover stays for long periods. Instead of multiple thaws during the season. I'd gladly take a winter with a NW flow and smaller systems. ...Would like at least one big storm in late winter to close out the season! ...We keep on getting storms off the east coast and that water will cool off more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 - Plains Drought Still going strong although some improvement for Eastern Lakes. (WIll create one hell of a feedback cycle like we saw this past Spring and Summer) I'm certainly not an expert on climo, but I'd wager the drought feedback processes are considerably less a factor on synoptic weather evolution during the cold season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Those are the winter's usually where the snow cover stays for long periods. Instead of multiple thaws during the season. I'd gladly take a winter with a NW flow and smaller systems. ...Would like at least one big storm in late winter to close out the season! ...We keep on getting storms off the east coast and that water will cool off more! Me too. Even in a clipper-laden winter, at least a few cutters will come up with some of the bigger totals (just have to hope youre areas in or near the sweetspot lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I'm certainly not an expert on climo, but I'd wager the drought feedback processes are considerably less a factor on synoptic weather evolution during the cold season. Absolutely they are less of a factor. If anything, I welcome a dry, hard ground for the snow to lay on. It wont suck up the snow as easily like a sponge. An example, last year the ground was so abnormally wet, we had a 2.4" snowfall on Dec 5th that the ground soaked up like a sponge with temps only a few degrees above freezing the next day. Only snow on the rooftops remained with bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 I'm certainly not an expert on climo, but I'd wager the drought feedback processes are considerably less a factor on synoptic weather evolution during the cold season. Correct, the feedback is much worse in the summer time vs the winter time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 -GOA Low STILL Torching away at the mid-section. (Our friend Doesn't look to go away anytime soon) - Plains Drought Still going strong although some improvement for Eastern Lakes. (WIll create one hell of a feedback cycle like we saw this past Spring and Summer) Don't see any hope in the near team to knock this bad boy down unfortunately so the problem will be with us through the winter. - East Coast Storm track due to Warm waters off of the Coast.. I am still cool! I just don't like cold/snow anymore lol Point 1 is probably the biggest concern or at least thing to watch going forward. Haven't seen much evidence of the drought having a big effect on large scale winter patterns but if it's out there then I'd be interested. As far as the ocean temps off the east coast, it might have some effect on lows that would already be there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 lol, you have zero reasoning/explanation for your outlook. Not that UW-weather has an ounce for his either. We don't need more trolls. Thought you were cool. Alas... Agree, it is just silliness to post something like that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Well I've made my predictions here and in the Snowfall Contest thread. We'll see how things shake out.. Feel free to bump troll in April if i'm wrong.. Alpena MI (APN): 76.8" Under Chicago IL (ORD): 35.2" Under Cleveland OH (CLE): 64.6" Under Columbus OH (CMH): 26.2" Under Detroit MI (DTW): 40.9" Under Dubuque IA (DBQ): 39.9" Under Fort Wayne IN (FWA): 32.2" Under Green Bay WI (GRB): 48.1" Under Indianapolis IN (IND): 25.3" Under La Crosse WI (LSE): 41.4" Under Louisville KY (SDF): 12.3"Under Marquette MI (MQT): 181.2" Under Milwaukee WI (MKE): 44.5" Under Muskegon MI (MKG): 91.2" Under Paducah KY (PAH): 9.0" Under St. Louis MO (STL): 17.3" Under Springfield IL (SPI): 20.6" Under Toronto ON (YYZ): 43.0" Under Tiebreaker #1: Over/under on normal December snowfall at DTW: 9.7" Under Tiebreaker #2: Over/under on normal January snowfall at ORD: 10.8" Under Tiebreaker #3: Over/under on normal February snowfall at LSE: 8.2" Under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Well I've made my predictions here and in the Snowfall Contest thread. We'll see how things shake out.. Feel free to bump troll in April.. Lol... We don't need MSPaint maps to go along with Tropical's torch spamming, come on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Sorry gotta run with this as of now.. Gotta factor in the New Climo and plus long term trends aren't looking the hottest.Temps Precip Is this even possible? Unless you think something is going to stall out on the east coast for 3 months, I wonder how the below normal temps are going to make it down south. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted November 20, 2012 Author Share Posted November 20, 2012 Entire Winter Outlook For Southeast Lower Michigan 11/19 http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/11/weak-el-nino-this-winter-much-ado-about.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 20, 2012 Share Posted November 20, 2012 Entire Winter Outlook For Southeast Lower Michigan 11/19 http://weatherhistor...-ado-about.html Excellent work as always! The below normal temps and normal snowfall you forecast would be very welcome by me (above normal snowfall preferred though ). The extensive cold air building in Canada right now and the above-average North American snowcover in October is a fantastic sign for winter, and certainly should give many-a-snowlover a sigh of relief during this mild Thanksgiving week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 LOT's thoughts on winter. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lot/Winter%20outlook%202013%20final.pdf Notice the Amwx graphics toward the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 24, 2012 Share Posted November 24, 2012 LOT's thoughts on winter. http://www.crh.noaa.... 2013 final.pdf Notice the Amwx graphics toward the bottom. Lots of forecasters in this region seem to like the chances of a normal to colder than normal winter. nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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