HighStakes Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 yeah...people forget about that storm (3-3/4?) and there was a smaller one a few days before that...good pattern It really was a good pattern. It's ashame we can't get that kind of set up a little more frequently. March that year saved winter. I don't think we had any measurable snow in February. You might recall the models showing a major storm around Valentine's Day, that of course never materialized. We finally got colder the second half of February but there were no storms that delivered until March. The first half of January that year was very cold with a nice event on the 8th. After the 15th we blowtorched for 30 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 The ideas that are getting tangled in this thread are, 1. Higher up in the thread, the chat was more about Winchester, NW Virginia and IAD, now the focus is shifted to DCA. 2. You (DC snow hounds) well know that IAD is really emerging during the most recent six decades as a different snow micro-climate than DCA especially given the proximity to a tidal river that no longer really freezes over and of course the heat island. It would actually be interesting to know if DCA got easier accumulations during intervals when the river was frozen, especially during events with marginal boundary layer temperatures. I would think that it would make a difference during events with marginal boundary layer temperatures and in events with little if any CAA. Are we unlikely to see the Potomac freeze in DC any year soon? Will it freeze much again during the next two or three decades with ongoing 'climate change'? 2. Ian: your chart doesn't show single events over 4 inches in March going back six decades. Is that certain? If so, it suggests a change in the local snow climate. You misread the chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 You misread the chart Obvi.... His tabular chart has recent events >4" but the Excel chart doesn't, or does it? Ah....it is the fooking scale, I thought it would be inches but the y-axis is # of events. So...the years with accumulating March events >3 has a drought going back seven decades. Still something suggesting climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Good info from GYM East....You had to get at least 4"-6"+ from the 3/9/95 snow..very unlikely that was minor.....given that you can't remember the 3/17/07 snow, I am going to assume you may just forget this one Yeah, it looks quite possible. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 26, 2013 Author Share Posted January 26, 2013 I am fairly pleased so far...of course that doesnt mean I wont totally bust in FEB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Your winter outlook has been fantastic as well as your short and medium range thoughts ahead of storms. Great stuff man. I still like the Feb 8-10 weekend and really any small event is possible Feb 1-20 with the +PNA in the means. The system we were discussing toward 2/20 could work out if we can get NAO help mid-month. There are finally some signals showing up that this may happen, but I'm not holding my breath. The reason we cannot call for monsters/KUs this month is basically because of the NAO. But that doesn't mean we can't get a few good snow events. Last year we would have killed for cold air and a +PNA, but I know that doesn't justify another lousy winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2013 Author Share Posted January 27, 2013 Your winter outlook has been fantastic as well as your short and medium range thoughts ahead of storms. Great stuff man. I still like the Feb 8-10 weekend and really any small event is possible Feb 1-20 with the +PNA in the means. The system we were discussing toward 2/20 could work out if we can get NAO help mid-month. There are finally some signals showing up that this may happen, but I'm not holding my breath. The reason we cannot call for monsters/KUs this month is basically because of the NAO. But that doesn't mean we can't get a few good snow events. Last year we would have killed for cold air and a +PNA, but I know that doesn't justify another lousy winter! Thanks man. I mentioned feb 8-10 yesterday as well as feb 8th a while back though it is all low confidence for me. When do you think we get a block back if at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 27, 2013 Share Posted January 27, 2013 Thanks man. I mentioned feb 8-10 yesterday as well as feb 8th a while back though it is all low confidence for me. When do you think we get a block back if at all? Well, you can see the models are trying to "dip" the NAO a little bit in our suspect time frame. If these clippers next weekend that help to drop the PV southward can pull up a thumb ridge, it may act to bring a temporary-neg NAO setup for us. As the southern stream / pac low piles into this, it could bring a decent setup. The timing of course will be huge here and we won't have our typical leeway, like with classic -NAO setups, because of how fragile this thumb ridge will be. The stratospheric guidance, while growing colder in the upper levels, is still favorable for a -AO in the lower levels. The latest EC suggest the vortex "reconfiguration" over the N atlantic will try to pull toward Europe by day 10. This could also support a thumb ridge into Greenland. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 28, 2013 Author Share Posted March 28, 2013 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/winter-outlook-2012-13-for-washington-dc-near-normal-cold-and-snow/2012/11/13/034a7552-2d1b-11e2-89d4-040c9330702a_blog.html I feel like I did pretty well, but I am not going to get a great grade..I was too cold and too snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Matt...I think you're forecast was one of the best that I saw, maybe the best. Certainly on the temps side, hitting the sign of the departures for each month is alone a pretty big accomplishment, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 I agree with wxusaf. Best I've seen for our yards as well. If grading on a curve then you set the curve. Nobody was getting this march right (i don't think anyone even includes it anymore). Going -4+ would have been considered counter-intuitive and down right crazy. Can we get a dang Nino next year for criminy sakes? Even dead neutral would be fine. If enso is even hinting at neg departures in Nov them I'm going with Phin's forecast door to door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Really great job with the forecast. Set the tone of the winter rather well. Of course, as you said, you were way too cold and snowy. Your job now is to figure out how we can get a good winter next year without a Nino (doesn't look too promising at this time). MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Really great job with the forecast. Set the tone of the winter rather well. Of course, as you said, you were way too cold and snowy. Your job now is to figure out how we can get a good winter next year without a Nino (doesn't look too promising at this time). MDstorm on the contrary..... Cherry picked of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 28, 2013 Author Share Posted March 28, 2013 Matt...I think you're forecast was one of the best that I saw, maybe the best. Certainly on the temps side, hitting the sign of the departures for each month is alone a pretty big accomplishment, IMO. I agree with wxusaf. Best I've seen for our yards as well. If grading on a curve then you set the curve. Nobody was getting this march right (i don't think anyone even includes it anymore). Going -4+ would have been considered counter-intuitive and down right crazy. Can we get a dang Nino next year for criminy sakes? Even dead neutral would be fine. If enso is even hinting at neg departures in Nov them I'm going with Phin's forecast door to door. Really great job with the forecast. Set the tone of the winter rather well. Of course, as you said, you were way too cold and snowy. Your job now is to figure out how we can get a good winter next year without a Nino (doesn't look too promising at this time). MDstorm Thanks...FWIW, I would have gone cold in March, but I dont do march anymore, except for including the snow for the entire season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 on the contrary..... nino.PNG Cherry picked of course... Lol...the blue ones kinda suck MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 28, 2013 Share Posted March 28, 2013 Really a good one Mr Z. I grade Dec:B Jan:B+ Feb:A- Overall:B+ Snowfall:C+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 29, 2013 Share Posted March 29, 2013 Thanks...FWIW, I would have gone cold in March, but I dont do march anymore, except for including the snow for the entire season I think you did a great job. I also think your snow forecast was good. IIRC, you were calling for climo to slightly above. That's exactly what many areas got. It just didn't work out for most of the low elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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