Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2013 Author Share Posted January 4, 2013 FWIW, here are my analog snow events for DCA from current date through the end of winter - Average - 9.8" Some dates to look for - 2/8, 2/20, 3/1 This is all 90% for entertainment purposes only...though I doubt we do worse than 6" (I would favor 1997 amounts over 1947 amounts)....I think we can expect any of the scenarios below with the 1947 SECS unlikely...I think 6-10" is a good range for DCA on top of our whopping 0.2"... 1947 - 14.0" 1/7 - 0.3" 2/4 - 0.6" 2/7-8 - 1.4" 2/20-21 - 8.3" 3/1-2 - 2.3" 3/8 - 0.1" 3/27 - 1.0" 1969 - 9.1" 1/6-7 - 0.2" 2/8 - 1.0" 2/20 - 1.2" 3/1-2 - 4.2" 3/7 - 2.0" 3/9 - 0.5" 1997 - 6.3" 1/9 - 1.6" 1/11 - 0.7" 2/8 - 3.2" 2/13-14 - 0.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 looks like I may continue the streak of my analogs working well as an aggregate mean....1st the bad news January looks a lot like December, but it is just a mean and doesnt mean we cant have a decent period janmeh.png Now the good news...Feb/March look great...I'm a little nervous about this coming to fruition with a nina state, though I think a feb 1997 with a good PAC/Bad Atl is more unlikely than the reverse febbetter.png march.png I hope you're right Matt decent snowfall at BWI for the 2 months combined in 3 of those years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 im definitely going to troll you if it doesn't snow on march 1. and i also hope you're wrong about it being cold for that long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Zwyts, I broke Jan of 97 and 69 in half and ran composites of the 2 halves. 97 looks quite a bit different than what we are seeing now so I won't bother posting those but 69 is like the perfect reverse. 69 had a good 1st half and bad second half: 69 looks really good overall irt to the features in the pac imo. When they time doesn't really matter. It would not surprise me at all if the second half of this Jan looks like the first half of 69. I couldn't pull dailies for 47. ESRL daily data starts in Jan of 48. If someone knows another place for daily reanalysis before then let know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2013 Author Share Posted January 4, 2013 Zwyts, I broke Jan of 97 and 69 in half and ran composites of the 2 halves. 97 looks quite a bit different than what we are seeing now so I won't bother posting those but 69 is like the perfect reverse. 69 had a good 1st half and bad second half: 1sthalfjan69.JPG 2ndhalfjan69.JPG 69 looks really good overall irt to the features in the pac imo. When they time doesn't really matter. It would not surprise me at all if the second half of this Jan looks like the first half of 69. I couldn't pull dailies for 47. ESRL daily data starts in Jan of 48. If someone knows another place for daily reanalysis before then let know. 97 was mostly an early analog...it had a torch FEB which I don't expect with the Bad ATL.....I like it from here out only for snow amounts...I like a 1947/69 combo without the FEB secs unless we get lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 97 was mostly an early analog...it had a torch FEB which I don't expect with the Bad ATL.....I like it from here out only for snow amounts...I like a 1947/69 combo without the FEB secs unless we get lucky getting lucky with secs I have found was always difficult Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2013 Author Share Posted January 4, 2013 getting lucky with secs I have found was always difficult I'd take a vow of celibacy (for a year) for a KU...dead serious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Keep 61-62 on the radar too. Dec 61 was close enough to this year. Especially with blocking and the pac at times. Jan 62 was a mixed bag of good and bad. Pretty much like this one is going to be. At least the bad is locked in this Jan. lol Jan - Feb of 62 looks like it was mixed with period of + & - pna and same with the epo/ao/nao. Strong ridging in the pac shows in good spots and bad spots throughout the period. The remaining winter here could easily just be variable. Things line up good for a bit and then notsogood. I'm skeptical (and I hope I'm wrong) about any decent period lasting more than 10-12 days at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2013 Author Share Posted January 4, 2013 Keep 61-62 on the radar too. Dec 61 was close enough to this year. Especially with blocking and the pac at times. Jan 62 was a mixed bag of good and bad. Pretty much like this one is going to be. At least the bad is locked in this Jan. lol Jan - Feb of 62 looks like it was mixed with period of + & - pna and same with the epo/ao/nao. Strong ridging in the pac shows in good spots and bad spots throughout the period. The remaining winter here could easily just be variable. Things line up good for a bit and then notsogood. I'm skeptical (and I hope I'm wrong) about any decent period lasting more than 10-12 days at a time. 61-62 isnt bad...I never liked it much because it was in the middle of a warm/neutral ENSO and followed an epic cold and snowy winter...but no analogs are perfect and it did ok in DEC despite it being way colder...I think I am riding 1947 all the way in the monthly means and if I bust so be it....I like a -2 to -4 february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 where you live maybe not...what is your elevation? Sorry, missed this post. 750' at my house. I put absolutely zero faith in any modeled march snow. Haven't seen measureable (<1") snow here since 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2013 Author Share Posted January 4, 2013 Sorry, missed this post. 750' at my house. I put absolutely zero faith in any modeled march snow. Haven't seen measureable (<1") snow here since 1993. ..Not sure how old you are, but this post is lol....sorry...I know too much about climo here to let that pass...you didnt just get measurable...you got some significant events...nice try dude not sure how you can make this post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Keep 61-62 on the radar too. Dec 61 was close enough to this year. Especially with blocking and the pac at times. Jan 62 was a mixed bag of good and bad. Pretty much like this one is going to be. At least the bad is locked in this Jan. lol Jan - Feb of 62 looks like it was mixed with period of + & - pna and same with the epo/ao/nao. Strong ridging in the pac shows in good spots and bad spots throughout the period. The remaining winter here could easily just be variable. Things line up good for a bit and then notsogood. I'm skeptical (and I hope I'm wrong) about any decent period lasting more than 10-12 days at a time. Don't know the stats for that year, but on a side-note: a while back, I found some old letters my dad wrote to my mom before they were married, one of which (dated Dec 24, 1961) included a weather obs of 6" of snow on the ground in Front Royal at Christmas. Found the coincidence between that White Christmas and this years, as well as your statement, very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 ..Not sure how old you are, but this post is lol....sorry...I know too much about climo here to let that pass...you didnt just get measurable...you got some significant events...nice try dude Kid you not; I can't recall a single event since that storm. My memory is far from infallible, so if any of the guys from the Dulles area can chime in..... WinterWxLvr, and WVclimo are probably not representative of my location since almost any March event is a marginal event, and they seem to do much better in those than the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 4, 2013 Author Share Posted January 4, 2013 Kid you not; I can't recall a single event since that storm. My memory is far from infallible, so if any of the guys from the Dulles area can chime in..... WinterWxLvr, and WVclimo are probably not representative of my location since almost any March event is a marginal event, and they seem to do much better in those than the rest of us. well..youre dead wrong...sorry...putting aside the small ones, you got moderate to big march events in 1994, 1995, 1999, 2005, 2007 at the very least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 March '99 was a 20"+ month at Martinsburg which included a 13.6" snowfall. If that one missed East Coast NPZ, he definitely needs to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 March '99 was a 20"+ month at Martinsburg which included a 13.6" snowfall. If that one missed East Coast NPZ, he definitely needs to move. Wow, I don't recall that. Wxunderground doesn't show any snow at KOKV that month, but I don't think the history precip for that site is accurate. Do you recall the date? I can see that Mar 9 was an abnormally cold day (27 / 23), so if there was snow it looked to occur on that date. Checked the cocorahs site and records for local stations don't go back that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 well..youre dead wrong...sorry...putting aside the small ones, you got moderate to big march events in 1994, 1995, 1999, 2005, 2007 at the very least... According to the closest cocorahs station (middletown) to Front Royal I can find : 2007: March 8 - 1.3" March 17 - 4.0" (Don't recall either) The weather records don't go back beyond 2006, so I can't find anything before. 2007 was a pretty crappy winter aside from the decent Feb snow/sleet storm, so I can't believe I wouldn't remember a 4" March storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Wow, I don't recall that. Wxunderground doesn't show any snow at KOKV that month, but I don't think the history precip for that site is accurate. Do you recall the date? I can see that Mar 9 was an abnormally cold day (27 / 23), so if there was snow it looked to occur on that date. Checked the cocorahs site and records for local stations don't go back that far. We can try to help you figure these out, but seriously, you're talking about forgetting 6-15" snowstorms.March 2-4, 1994 was a monster snowstorm for west of the DC area. IAD got 6" switching to rain, but the Shenandoah Valley was slammed with 20-40" of snow. There's no way Front Royal would have missed out on heavy snows with that storm--- On the KU Volume II map (as off in location as the numbers tend to fall, you can still see the snowfall contours for a given region), every single location anywhere near Front Royal got 12-40" of snow. March 8, 1995 was a post-super-cold-front blast of snow that dropped 1.8" at IAD with a total of 1.16" of precip. Hagerstown, MD, picked up 6.8" of snow with 1.18" of precip. Again, given that profile, it's almost certain that Front Royal would have gotten more than 1" of snow. March 9, 1999 was a narrow band of heavy snow right through NOVA. All the reports around Front Royal through the DC region were in the 8-10" range. There's absolutely no way you missed out on a 6"+ snow that day. March 14-15, 1999 was a classic mid-March snowstorm that was mostly rain for downtown DC, but 5.4" of snow at IAD with 1.1" total precip. Hagerstown, MD, picked up 12.4" of snow, and the entire area around Front Royal was in the 5-15" range. March 8, 2005 was another snow shot after a dynamic cold-front passage that dropped more snow in western areas. IAD picked up 1" and even DCA managed 0.8". Hagerstown- 1.6", Sterling, VA- 2.0" And you already covered 3/2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 We can try to help you figure these out, but seriously, you're talking about forgetting 6-15" snowstorms. March 2-4, 1994 was a monster snowstorm for west of the DC area. IAD got 6" switching to rain, but the Shenandoah Valley was slammed with 20-40" of snow. There's no way Front Royal would have missed out on heavy snows with that storm--- On the KU Volume II map (as off in location as the numbers tend to fall, you can still see the snowfall contours for a given region), every single location anywhere near Front Royal got 12-40" of snow. March 8, 1995 was a post-super-cold-front blast of snow that dropped 1.8" at IAD with a total of 1.16" of precip. Hagerstown, MD, picked up 6.8" of snow with 1.18" of precip. Again, given that profile, it's almost certain that Front Royal would have gotten more than 1" of snow. March 9, 1999 was a narrow band of heavy snow right through NOVA. All the reports around Front Royal through the DC region were in the 8-10" range. There's absolutely no way you missed out on a 6"+ snow that day. March 14-15, 1999 was a classic mid-March snowstorm that was mostly rain for downtown DC, but 5.4" of snow at IAD with 1.1" total precip. Hagerstown, MD, picked up 12.4" of snow, and the entire area around Front Royal was in the 5-15" range. March 8, 2005 was another snow shot after a dynamic cold-front passage that dropped more snow in western areas. IAD picked up 1" and even DCA managed 0.8". Hagerstown- 1.6", Sterling, VA- 2.0" And you already covered 3/2007. Thanks. Your recollection of these events is amazing. Based on your accounts of the 1994 storm I do now remember that storm, but I'd thought it was a Feb storm for some reason. I measured 14" from that snow. It was a good front-end thump that turned to rain and sleet for much of the afternoon and evening. Later that night it changed back to snow and gave us another good pasting. Had that storm remained all snow, it would've been one for the record books. Still have no recollection of the 1995 snow. Post-frontal snows rarely work out for us. Even if HGR got 6.8" I wouldn't bet on FR seeing anything of that nature. Could've been light accumulation that got disregarded from the memory. 1999 is the one that bothers me. How could I not remember two back-to-back sig March storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 5, 2013 Author Share Posted January 5, 2013 We can try to help you figure these out, but seriously, you're talking about forgetting 6-15" snowstorms. March 2-4, 1994 was a monster snowstorm for west of the DC area. IAD got 6" switching to rain, but the Shenandoah Valley was slammed with 20-40" of snow. There's no way Front Royal would have missed out on heavy snows with that storm--- On the KU Volume II map (as off in location as the numbers tend to fall, you can still see the snowfall contours for a given region), every single location anywhere near Front Royal got 12-40" of snow. March 8, 1995 was a post-super-cold-front blast of snow that dropped 1.8" at IAD with a total of 1.16" of precip. Hagerstown, MD, picked up 6.8" of snow with 1.18" of precip. Again, given that profile, it's almost certain that Front Royal would have gotten more than 1" of snow. March 9, 1999 was a narrow band of heavy snow right through NOVA. All the reports around Front Royal through the DC region were in the 8-10" range. There's absolutely no way you missed out on a 6"+ snow that day. March 14-15, 1999 was a classic mid-March snowstorm that was mostly rain for downtown DC, but 5.4" of snow at IAD with 1.1" total precip. Hagerstown, MD, picked up 12.4" of snow, and the entire area around Front Royal was in the 5-15" range. March 8, 2005 was another snow shot after a dynamic cold-front passage that dropped more snow in western areas. IAD picked up 1" and even DCA managed 0.8". Hagerstown- 1.6", Sterling, VA- 2.0" And you already covered 3/2007. Thanks. Your recollection of these events is amazing. Based on your accounts of the 1994 storm I do now remember that storm, but I'd thought it was a Feb storm for some reason. I measured 14" from that snow. It was a good front-end thump that turned to rain and sleet for much of the afternoon and evening. Later that night it changed back to snow and gave us another good pasting. Had that storm remained all snow, it would've been one for the record books. Still have no recollection of the 1995 snow. Post-frontal snows rarely work out for us. Even if HGR got 6.8" I wouldn't bet on FR seeing anything of that nature. Could've been light accumulation that got disregarded from the memory. 1999 is the one that bothers me. How could I not remember two back-to-back sig March storms? Good info from GYM East....You had to get at least 4"-6"+ from the 3/9/95 snow..very unlikely that was minor.....given that you can't remember the 3/17/07 snow, I am going to assume you may just forget this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 Dulles has had over an inch of snow or more 20 out of the previous 38 March periods, a bit better than one out of two probability. Dulles snow March by season 74-75--------1.2 75-76--------6.4 77-78-------10.3 79-80--------9.8 83-84-------10.8 86-87--------1.4 89-90--------6.4 90-91--------3.5 91-92--------1.2 92-93--------15.5 93-94--------7.9 94-95--------1.9 95-96--------6.0 96-97--------1.5 98-99--------14.6 00-01--------1.0 02-03--------1.9 04-05--------1.2 06-07--------3.1 08-09--------6.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 MRB had accumulating snow in March in 56 of the 75 years that they measured there before stopping in 2000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 5, 2013 Share Posted January 5, 2013 I still count the 09 storm as February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 5, 2013 Author Share Posted January 5, 2013 I still count the 09 storm as February. March has definitely been a paltry month in terms of decent snow for us in DC...we got measurable in the following winters in the last 20 years..the bolded had a 3"+ event 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997 1999, 2005, 2007, 2009 , 2011....I might be missing an event in the 2000-2004 period? and perhaps a very minor 0.5" ish in another winter.....so 9-10 out of the last 20 winters had a measurable event more than a T....so I think that is a fair assessment...about 50% of winters in DC proper we can expect at least a cartopper-2" event and about 1 out of 5 winters we can expect a moderate to large event.....I would probably use the same percentages this winter....50% chance nothing, 50% chance measurable event after 3/1 and 20% chance 2-3"+ event..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 March has definitely been a paltry month in terms of decent snow for us in DC...we got measurable in the following winters in the last 20 years..the bolded had a 3"+ event 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997 1999, 2005, 2007, 2009 , 2011....I might be missing an event in the 2000-2004 period? and perhaps a very minor 0.5" ish in another winter.....so 9-10 out of the last 20 winters had a measurable event more than a T....so I think that is a fair assessment...about 50% of winters in DC proper we can expect at least a cartopper-2" event and about 1 out of 5 winters we can expect a moderate to large event.....I would probably use the same percentages this winter....50% chance nothing, 50% chance measurable event after 3/1 and 20% chance 2-3"+ event..... here's back to 1971 and a chart showing accum in mar. i guess i don't totally write it off per se, but you'll of course note that most of the better events come before 3/15 or even 3/10. so, if nothing else we always need a qualification for march in dc at least. i guess it's possible dec 5 has made dec feel like a better month overall of late -- at least since i've been here... tho it sorta feels like no contest that mar is more likely to be futile here. i like march volatility but i have a hard time getting excited in advance.. or using it as last hope. i'd certainly want to have seen a snowier time leading into it etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I have lived in fred co va in 1994. I don't remember a huge snow storm in march, but that year is remembered for severe artic cold as well as lots of ice. In march 1993, We did get about two feet of snow as a result of the superstorm. With that their was a sharp east west cut off and the higher totals, over 40 inches were farther west and at higher elevations. I think east I of winchester snow totals dropped of quickly. That winter included another big snow in mid december of 1992. Again with a sharp east west cutoff right through the middle of fred co va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I don't know if it was mentioned but there was another event in March 1999. I think it was a few days before the event on the 9th. A powerful storm dumped very heavy amounts in western PA and NY and I'm pretty sure most north and west areas around here switched over to heavy snow for several hours before ending in the early morning hours. Not sure if the airports recorded anything, but I know Hagerstown got about 6 and Westminster got 4 plus. I got about 3 in Reisterstown. I would assume higher elevations in NW Virginia and WV did well also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 I don't know if it was mentioned but there was another event in March 1999. I think it was a few days before the event on the 9th. A powerful storm dumped very heavy amounts in western PA and NY and I'm pretty sure most north and west areas around here switched over to heavy snow for several hours before ending in the early morning hours. Not sure if the airports recorded anything, but I know Hagerstown got about 6 and Westminster got 4 plus. I got about 3 in Reisterstown. I would assume higher elevations in NW Virginia and WV did well also. yeah...people forget about that storm (3-3/4?) and there was a smaller one a few days before that...good pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 6, 2013 Author Share Posted January 6, 2013 here's back to 1971 and a chart showing accum in mar. i guess i don't totally write it off per se, but you'll of course note that most of the better events come before 3/15 or even 3/10. so, if nothing else we always need a qualification for march in dc at least. i guess it's possible dec 5 has made dec feel like a better month overall of late -- at least since i've been here... tho it sorta feels like no contest that mar is more likely to be futile here. i like march volatility but i have a hard time getting excited in advance.. or using it as last hope. i'd certainly want to have seen a snowier time leading into it etc. yeah...pretty much in agreement with what I said,.Not sure we disagree at all..one small advantage is that NW will do better than DCA more often in March and with a bigger discrepancy.....1993 was a much bigger event where you live....there was an event in 1997 that was maybe 2" where you live? that isnt even on there...some of the T at DCA are probably 0.5's in NW DC..a lot depends if you like small events or not...but chasing only 4"+ events in DC in any month is sort of foolish imo unless you dont care about failure most of the time....but yeah...it is a much more fruitful month for MRB/HGR etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 ...here's back to 1971 and a chart showing accum in mar... The ideas that are getting tangled in this thread are, 1. Higher up in the thread, the chat was more about Winchester, NW Virginia and IAD, now the focus is shifted to DCA. 2. You (DC snow hounds) well know that IAD is really emerging during the most recent six decades as a different snow micro-climate than DCA especially given the proximity to a tidal river that no longer really freezes over and of course the heat island. It would actually be interesting to know if DCA got easier accumulations during intervals when the river was frozen, especially during events with marginal boundary layer temperatures. I would think that it would make a difference during events with marginal boundary layer temperatures and in events with little if any CAA. To snow in downtown DC more than four inches in March seems to be a once in seven decades event now, eh? Are we unlikely to see the Potomac freeze in DC any year soon? Will it freeze much again during the next two or three decades with ongoing 'climate change'? 3. Ian: your chart doesn't show single events over 4 inches in March going back seven decades. Is that certain? If so, it suggests a change in the local snow climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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