Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I wonder if that means the euro monthlies have turned cold or whether he is just basing it one the snow cover and the neg ao look that the extended 240 hour euro and 360 GFS ensemble means have been showing recently. It's hard to ignore the blocking sig showing up. It's all but a lock at this point I would think. The ridge out west is prob the thing that I like the most. Anything riding the NS will have a chance at doing something and most importantly, it would likely pass to our south. Whether this early showing of a -nao is something that will continue into winter or not I really have no idea other than cautious optimism. But any window of opportunity will be fun. I miss tracking stuff. Well, I miss tracking stuff that actaully whitens the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 It's hard to ignore the blocking sig showing up. It's all but a lock at this point I would think. The ridge out west is prob the thing that I like the most. Anything riding the NS will have a chance at doing something and most importantly, it would likely pass to our south. Whether this early showing of a -nao is something that will continue into winter or not I really have no idea other than cautious optimism. But any window of opportunity will be fun. I miss tracking stuff. Well, I miss tracking stuff that actaully whitens the ground. I read his reasoning, much of it was based on Cohen's work with snow cover. Dave likes going for the jugular. The models certainly are showing a negative ao look though not yet where we want it (at least on the 06Z gefs ensemble mean). The stratosphere certainly still is not where we'd like it and has the look of the positive phase of the NAM which may or may not be problematical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 It's hard to ignore the blocking sig showing up. It's all but a lock at this point I would think. The ridge out west is prob the thing that I like the most. Anything riding the NS will have a chance at doing something and most importantly, it would likely pass to our south. Whether this early showing of a -nao is something that will continue into winter or not I really have no idea other than cautious optimism. But any window of opportunity will be fun. I miss tracking stuff. Well, I miss tracking stuff that actaully whitens the ground. Northern stream digging is our best bet for snows this winter, IMO. Like you, I'm feeling the blocking. We may get a shot at a gulf storm or two, but I have a sneaking suspicion that any snows we get will be from vorts diving south and giving us your standard 3-6" snowfalls. But if we can capitalize on a few of those types of snowfalls, then we could see a half-decent winter in the end. Throw in a chance perfect-setup storm, and it could be better than decent. I have a suspicion that I'll stay out of the New England forum this winter. I have a hard time living vicariously through others when it comes to snow, which I think they'll get plenty of this year (as normal, right?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 I read his reasoning, much of it was based on Cohen's work with snow cover. Dave likes going for the jugular. The models certainly are showing a negative ao look though not yet where we want it (at least on the 06Z gefs ensemble mean). The stratosphere certainly still is not where we'd like it and has the look of the positive phase of the NAM which may or may not be problematical. I skimmed it but I really don't like dt all that much so I avoid his "1st calls". lol Leading into Dec is just a continuation of mixed signals. I can't imagine any of you mets feeling "confident" in any one given outcome over another irt long range stuff. This winter looks like a box of chocolates if that makes any sense. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 Northern stream digging is our best bet for snows this winter, IMO. Like you, I'm feeling the blocking. We may get a shot at a gulf storm or two, but I have a sneaking suspicion that any snows we get will be from vorts diving south and giving us your standard 3-6" snowfalls. But if we can capitalize on a few of those types of snowfalls, then we could see a half-decent winter in the end. Throw in a chance perfect-setup storm, and it could be better than decent. I have a suspicion that I'll stay out of the New England forum this winter. I have a hard time living vicariously through others when it comes to snow, which I think they'll get plenty of this year (as normal, right?). Well, I don't really see any reason to think that the stj will go wild or anything. NS stuff can do us right though even without the gulf. It all depends on how far south it can dig. Even if the pattern doesn't favor storms strengthening along the gulf coast, if the trough and blocking is aligned right (doesn't even have to be perfect) there is plenty of room for deepening off the carolina's. Our heartbreak normally lies with needing something to jump to the coast. Models love giving us virtual snow and the storms love giving us nothing. The last coastal is a good example of what could give us a big snow this winter. That type of setup with just a better track and a bit stronger as it passes and we can easily get 6"+ widespread. Maybe the setup progged towards the end of the month lets a nice little vort come around the bottom? Just don't look at the 12z gfs. It seems to have other ideas for us now and it isn't pretty. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 The chances of actually having a weak El Nino have risen sharply since just one week ago thanks to some apparent VERY strong warming (at least per the OISST loop). The weekly to be issued tomorow morning for Nino 3.4's anomaly has a shot at getting to a whopping +1.0 based on the OISST loop from +0.4 just last week!! IF it does that, it would be warmest week since 3/24/2010, warmer than ANY week of the 2004-5 weak Nino, only 0.1 cooler than the same weeks both in 1994 (oncoming moderate Nino) and 1991(oncoming strong Nino), and only 0.2 cooler than the same week in 2006 (oncoming borderline moderate/weak Nino). So, even if it were to reverse some down for the following week (which wouldn't be surprising after such a massive warming), it would likely not be enough to take Nino back to close to being out of the ballgame, especially since historic precedent would suggest Nino. If we can get the -NAO/-AO. things would be looking up for a good shot at a cold winter in much of the E US. If we can get a weak Nino to go along with -NAO/-AO, things would surely be looking even better for cold to possibly very cold prospects, especially since this Nino would be following a Nina. Now, if we could somehow manage to add a DJF averaged +PDO to the same mix of weak Nino and -NAO/-AO, look out below! Link to SST anom loop: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.anom.anim.week.html Go here for more details about ENSO: http://www.americanw...80#entry1869811 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 The chances of actually having a weak El Nino have risen sharply since just one week ago thanks to some apparent VERY strong warming (at least per the OISST loop). The weekly to be issued tomorow morning for Nino 3.4's anomaly has a shot at getting to a whopping +1.0 based on the OISST loop from +0.4 just last week!! IF it does that, it would be warmest week since 3/24/2010, warmer than ANY week of the 2004-5 weak Nino, only 0.1 cooler than the same weeks both in 1994 (oncoming moderate Nino) and 1991(oncoming strong Nino), and only 0.2 cooler than the same week in 2006 (oncoming borderline moderate/weak Nino). So, even if it were to reverse some down for the following week (which wouldn't be surprising after such a massive warming), it would likely not be enough to take Nino back to close to being out of the ballgame, especially since historic precedent would suggest Nino. If we can get the -NAO/-AO. things would be looking up for a good shot at a cold winter in much of the E US. If we can get a weak Nino to go along with -NAO/-AO, things would surely be looking even better for cold to possibly very cold prospects, especially since this Nino would be following a Nina. Now, if we could somehow manage to add a DJF averaged +PDO to the same mix of weak Nino and -NAO/-AO, look out below! Link to SST anom loop: http://www.esrl.noaa....anim.week.html Go here for more details about ENSO: http://www.americanw...80#entry1869811 It is already waning again....not sure it is legit.....maybe just a sizable fluctuation...would be rare for Nino to get going this late... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 It is already waning again....not sure it is legit.....maybe just a sizable fluctuation...would be rare for Nino to get going this late... It has, indeed, waned the last two days, but only slowly. I'm guessing it is just an inverted dead cat bounce. Per Stormvista, it was only near +0.3 to +0.4 as of around 11/10 and the days prior to it. Then 3.4 suddenly went on steroids and was near +0.9 on 11/12 (about two days later), +1.0 on 11/13, +1.35 on 11/14, and +1.5 on 11/15, the peak. It fell only to +1.4 on 11/16 and +1.3 on 11/17 (latest map). So, to this point, it has not fallen as quickly as it rose per SV. It has fallen only about half as fast. So, it doesn't look like an inverted "V" pattern just yet. I'm guessing that that means that a sizable portion of this impressive warmth will be retained once the current drop ends. Yes, it would be rather rare to get a Nino this late. However, a similar pattern did occur in 1939: after warming in Sep., it cooled in Oct. to similar levels to Oct. 2012. It then warmed in Nov. and into the winter. That weak Nino also followed a Nina. Also, that autumn had a very strong -PDO(it became a strong +PDO in time for DJF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 It has, indeed, waned the last two days, but only slowly. I'm guessing it is just an inverted dead cat bounce. Per Stormvista, it was only near +0.3 to +0.4 as of around 11/10 and the days prior to it. Then 3.4 suddenly went on steroids and was near +0.9 on 11/12 (about two days later), +1.0 on 11/13, +1.35 on 11/14, and +1.5 on 11/15, the peak. It fell only to +1.4 on 11/16 and +1.3 on 11/17 (latest map). So, to this point, it has not fallen as quickly as it rose per SV. It has fallen only about half as fast. So, it doesn't look like a "V" pattern just yet. I'm guessing that that means that a sizable portion of this impressive warmth will be retained once the current drop ends. Yes, it would be rather rare to get a Nino this late. However, a similar pattern did occur in 1939: after warming in Sep., it cooled in Oct. to similar levels to Oct. 2012. It then warmed in Nov. and into the winter. That weak Nino also followed a Nina. Also, that autumn had a very strong -PDO(it became a strong +PDO in time for DJF). Does SV have subsurface graphs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Does SV have subsurface graphs? Actually, I don't know because I'm actually not a member. Harry from SV was nice enough to post the recent 3.4 SST anomalies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 Folks, I was just told by Michelle at NOAA that the OISST data (which is used by StormVista for their own updates) had a "bug" in it. She told me that they reran the data and put out this week's update based on that. There were initially asterisks instead of numbers for the SST anom.'s. They did that because of their immediate suspicion that the OISST data was wrong. The numbers didn't replace the asterisks until ~9 AM. I've never seen anything like this before and I've been following these weeklies for nearly 10 years. I'm going to call her again later to see if she'll give me more details. No, I'm not making this up!! Go here (main ENSO thread) for more details: http://www.americanw...80#entry1871482 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 Folks, I was just told by Michelle at NOAA that the OISST data (which is used by StormVista for their own updates) had a "bug" in it. She told me that they reran the data and put out this week's update based on that. There were initially asterisks instead of numbers for the SST anom.'s. They did that because of their immediate suspicion that the OISST data was wrong. The numbers didn't replace the asterisks until ~9 AM. I've never seen anything like this before and I've been following these weeklies for nearly 10 years. I'm going to cal her later to see if she'll give me more details. No, I'm not making this up!! Go here (main ENSO thread) for more details: http://www.americanw...80#entry1871482 0.5 doesn't seem that far off....Nino didnt blow up until 11/14 and it was almost dormant before then...it probably should be 0.7 or 0.8 if centered on 11/14....FWIW today (3 -3.4 - 4) is 0.5, 1.1, 0.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 19, 2012 Share Posted November 19, 2012 0.5 doesn't seem that far off....Nino didnt blow up until 11/14 and it was almost dormant before then...it probably should be 0.7 or 0.8 if centered on 11/14....FWIW today (3 -3.4 - 4) is 0.5, 1.1, 0.9 Matt, I respect you because I think you're a very smart guy, but I disagree vehemently with you on this. I guarantee you that +0.5 is WAY too cool vs. what the OISST maps show for 11/11-17. If you look at the loop, 11/11-17 is WAY warmer than 11/4-10!! Per Harry per StormVista, these were the approximate numbers (all of these are in the ENSO thread) and they all look reasonable to me per my own eyes: Days prior to 11/11: as low as +0.3, which were close to TAO, NOAA, etc. Sun 11/11: nothing given but the warming had clearly already started on 11/11 per the loops Mon 11/12: +0.9..so this is already ~0.6 warmer than a few days prior per Harry; one can see good warming again on this day per the loop Tue 11/13: +1.0 Wed 11/14: +1.35...yes, sig. warming obvious on this day, too Thu 11/15: +1.50 Fri 11/16: +1.40..slight cooling evident on loop Sat 11/17: +1.30.." " " " If I assume ~+0.6 for 1/11, I get +1.15 for the calendar week centered on 11/14. Reminder: Michelle told me, herself, that there was a bug in the OISST data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 19, 2012 Author Share Posted November 19, 2012 Matt, I respect you because I think you're a very smart guy, but I disagree vehemently with you on this. I guarantee you that +0.5 is WAY too cool vs. what the OISST maps show for 11/11-17. If you look at the loop, 11/11-17 is WAY warmer than 11/4-10!! Per Harry per StormVista, these were the approximate numbers (all of these are in the ENSO thread) and they all look reasonable to me per my own eyes: Days prior to 11/11: as low as +0.3, which were close to TAO, NOAA, etc. Sun 11/11: nothing given but the warming had clearly already started on 11/11 per the loops Mon 11/12: +0.9..so this is already ~0.6 warmer than a few days prior per Harry; one can see good warming again on this day per the loop Tue 11/13: +1.0 Wed 11/14: +1.35...yes, sig. warming obvious on this day, too Thu 11/15: +1.50 Fri 11/16: +1.40..slight cooling evident on loop Sat 11/17: +1.30.." " " " If I assume ~+0.6 for 1/11, I get +1.15 for the calendar week centered on 11/14. Reminder: Michelle told me, herself, that there was a bug in the OISST data. sounds like you are right...I thought it was cooler before 11/14...hopefully they fix it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 26, 2012 Author Share Posted November 26, 2012 there was more to it than this, but if you take my 3 analogs, you can see how you can go warm here in December with an aleutian ridge and a -NAO if there is a -PNA....Most frigid decembers have the huge block in the WPO region but also a -NAO and a +PNA.... I feel pretty good about my analogs heading into DEC...Perhaps they are a little too strong with the -PNA..I still like 65/35 warm versus cold which is a big enough ratio to go +1 to +2...so I did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 there was more to it than this, but if you take my 3 analogs, you can see how you can go warm here in December with an aleutian ridge and a -NAO if there is a -PNA....Most frigid decembers have the huge block in the WPO region but also a -NAO and a +PNA.... Looks like you may nail it man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 Looks like you may nail it man. thanks....unfortunately my analogs paint a similar picture for January....let's hope I am wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 thanks....unfortunately my analogs paint a similar picture for January....let's hope I am wrong Those are scarey analogs. Hopefully, the pattern in the Pacific shifts quicker than that or at least shifts sometime in Jan. I'm guessing none of those Januaries were very snowy. P.S. to the Weenies, I have no idea when the pattern is likely to shift away from the negative PNA pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 46-47 was a pretty snowy December north of you guys up my way. In fact, there was a pretty big storm on the 20th. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 46-47 was a pretty snowy December north of you guys up my way. In fact, there was a pretty big storm on the 20th. haha yes....could happen? I am not expecting much here until February/March.....a huge March miller A wouldn't surprise me....hopefully not too warm here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 yes....could happen? I am not expecting much here until February/March.....a huge March miller A wouldn't surprise me....hopefully not too warm here.... I was just looking at the 1946 Dec monthly 500mb anomalies and that's pretty good. I wish I could see down to the day but it shows you what kind of options exist between Dec 14-24 this year. 1992 was one of my analog years for the stratosphere and it is interesting how the ECMWF took on that look next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I was just looking at the 1946 Dec monthly 500mb anomalies and that's pretty good. I wish I could see down to the day but it shows you what kind of options exist between Dec 14-24 this year. You can get the dailies for '47 here (every 6 hours actually) - http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/subdaily_20thc/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 You can get the dailies for '47 here (every 6 hours actually) - http://www.esrl.noaa...subdaily_20thc/ That's awesome thanks. I think 1946 is my new favorite analog looking at the 500mb heights by week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 7, 2012 Share Posted December 7, 2012 I would take 46-47 here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 7, 2012 Author Share Posted December 7, 2012 I was just looking at the 1946 Dec monthly 500mb anomalies and that's pretty good. I wish I could see down to the day but it shows you what kind of options exist between Dec 14-24 this year. 1992 was one of my analog years for the stratosphere and it is interesting how the ECMWF took on that look next week. Another winter with a big march storm. 69, 93, 97, 47. All big march storms. I don't take analogs too literally but some dates pop up. Not surprisingly feb 7-9 is a window. Lindsay. A good snow in 97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 so far I am doing really well with my analogs which is a bad thing if they keep working because they paint a pretty bleak picture for January (though a better one for February) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 looks like I may continue the streak of my analogs working well as an aggregate mean....1st the bad news January looks a lot like December, but it is just a mean and doesnt mean we cant have a decent period Now the good news...Feb/March look great...I'm a little nervous about this coming to fruition with a nina state, though I think a feb 1997 with a good PAC/Bad Atl is more unlikely than the reverse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 looks like I may continue the streak of my analogs working well as an aggregate mean....1st the bad news January looks a lot like December, but it is just a mean and doesnt mean we cant have a decent period janmeh.png Now the good news...Feb/March look great...I'm a little nervous about this coming to fruition with a nina state, though I think a feb 1997 with a good PAC/Bad Atl is more unlikely than the reverse febbetter.png march.png Great, cold March rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 Great, cold March rain..... where you live maybe not...what is your elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 LYH had 3 8 inch storms after Feb 19th in 1947... plus a three incher. I'd take that in a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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