Deck Pic Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/winter-outlook-2012-13-for-washington-dc-near-normal-cold-and-snow/2012/11/13/034a7552-2d1b-11e2-89d4-040c9330702a_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Thanks man, looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Thanks man, looks good. Thanks HM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 I think a normal dc winter like this is what to expect with more snow the further north you go...what's new! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 A "normal" winter around DC would be highly abnormal given the last decade around here. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Great write-up, Matt. For whatever reason, your forecast for this winter makes more sense to me than any previous year's outlook. You explain things very clearly for many to see how the playing field is shaping up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 http://www.washingto...0702a_blog.html Very nice and frank discussion, Matt. Good luck with the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 A "normal" winter around DC would be highly abnormal given the last decade around here. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 I'll take it. me too, but keep my faith we'll go AN with snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Great job as usual Matt! Great info, well reasoned! My wishcast is wishing that you are wrong and we get a lot more snow. In reality, I think we will be close to normal this year! Whether it is closer on the warmer or on the cooler side, I would go a bit cooler as I think AO and NAO will help.. but not much! Great job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 there was more to it than this, but if you take my 3 analogs, you can see how you can go warm here in December with an aleutian ridge and a -NAO if there is a -PNA....Most frigid decembers have the huge block in the WPO region but also a -NAO and a +PNA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Good write-up. Of course, this always raises the question......how do you like your seasonal snowfall? 1-2 snowfalls, or a handful of small events spread out. If BWI (the reporting location I'm closest to) were to have a winter of 18", I would be pleased with one 6" snowfall and four 3 inchers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Excellent write up Matt, also it was very easy to understand for a layman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Solid and easy logic to follow. I was big time on the warm Dec train early in the fall but I've changed my mind a bit. The pac looks nothing like it did last year at this time. Even the "warm period" that the models were advertising for the next couple of weeks is changing rapidly. It's actually looking like this month is going to end up aob normal as a whole. That's a big change from a long string of aoa months. Is this part of a larger scale and longer term pattern switch irt temps? You've been looking at the season stuff much longer than I have so I have more confidence in your forecast than anything I try and put together. Thanks for taking the time to put it together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Solid and easy logic to follow. I was big time on the warm Dec train early in the fall but I've changed my mind a bit. The pac looks nothing like it did last year at this time. Even the "warm period" that the models were advertising for the next couple of weeks is changing rapidly. It's actually looking like this month is going to end up aob normal as a whole. That's a big change from a long string of aoa months. Is this part of a larger scale and longer term pattern switch irt temps? You've been looking at the season stuff much longer than I have so I have more confidence in your forecast than anything I try and put together. Thanks for taking the time to put it together. Thanks...I know a cold DEC is a popular forecast....I don't really see any stable feature except probably an aleutian ridge....It is low confidence...I could bust easily...I am probably 60/40 in favor of a warmish DEC so that is not high confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 It's been feast or famine over the last decade. When was our last normal/average winter? Very nice write-up. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Solid and easy logic to follow. I was big time on the warm Dec train early in the fall but I've changed my mind a bit. The pac looks nothing like it did last year at this time. Even the "warm period" that the models were advertising for the next couple of weeks is changing rapidly. It's actually looking like this month is going to end up aob normal as a whole. That's a big change from a long string of aoa months. Is this part of a larger scale and longer term pattern switch irt temps? You've been looking at the season stuff much longer than I have so I have more confidence in your forecast than anything I try and put together. Thanks for taking the time to put it together. Thanks...I know a cold DEC is a popular forecast....I don't really see any stable feature except probably an aleutian ridge....It is low confidence...I could bust easily...I am probably 60/40 in favor of a warmish DEC so that is not high confidence FWIW the correlation between cold Novembers and December is pretty much nonexistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Thanks...I know a cold DEC is a popular forecast....I don't really see any stable feature except probably an aleutian ridge....It is low confidence...I could bust easily...I am probably 60/40 in favor of a warmish DEC so that is not high confidence A lot of the cold Dec forecasts are based solely on wishcasting though. lol tbh- there really isn't a dominating signal so anyone who puts forth a "high confidence" forecast is taking quite the chance. I totally get where you are coming from when you say things like 60/40 etc. It's exactly how I think irt all seasonal forecasting. I always treat it like "if I HAD to put money on it what would I favor and why" but upsets are more common in weather than college football. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 FWIW the correlation between cold Novembers and December is pretty much nonexistent Quite true. November is a transition month so the signal isn't a reliable as months like December. However, I'm willing to bet there is a correlation with a cold last 10 days of Nov and the following December. Late Nov is when we start to see stable patterns set up. Not always the case but I can't remember a cold Dec following a thanksgiving weekend that didn't require a jacket or long sleeves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 It's been feast or famine over the last decade. When was our last normal/average winter? Very nice write-up. MDstorm Using BWI as an example, you really need to go back to 2003-2004 thru 2005-2006 to see the last run of normal snowfall in consecutive years. 18.3, 18.0 and 19.6. Granted, slightly below normal, but its good enough for me. Before that, 93-94 was closest to a normal winter with 17.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Using BWI as an example, you really need to go back to 2003-2004 thru 2005-2006 to see the last run of normal snowfall in consecutive years. 18.3, 18.0 and 19.6. Granted, slightly below normal, but its good enough for me. Before that, 93-94 was closest to a normal winter with 17.3. It's too volatile this far south anyway. We've had plenty of normal or near normal precip winters but snow will always be a wildcard. Our enemy is temps. Like many of us say "I'd prefer a cold winter and take my chances with precip". The last decade has had some really warm winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 It's been feast or famine over the last decade. When was our last normal/average winter? Very nice write-up. MDstorm In my area, the last normal winter was 2008-09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Matt, Nice job. I think two of the big players will be the AO and the mjo this winter as the latter usually ends up being more active during La Nada winters. Unfortunately, the MJO is not easy to forecast but it is something worth watching closer this year than last. Wes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 13, 2012 Author Share Posted November 13, 2012 Matt, Nice job. I think two of the big players will be the AO and the mjo this winter as the latter usually ends up being more active during La Nada winters. Unfortunately, the MJO is not easy to forecast but it is something worth watching closer this year than last. Wes Thanks...I am sure we'll be watching the MJO constantly in this forum this winter, praying it doesn't rot in the circle of death during one of the bad phases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 Good job, Matt! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Good stuff, Matt. If it works out as well as the analysis of election polling, we shall have snowfall just below the mean. Klaus Wolter seems to think that a neutral ENSO state is as good a guess as any. While it is too early to write an obituary for the short-lived El Niño event of 2012, the odds for a rebound have dwindled since last month. Therefore, we are facing our first ENSO-neutral winter since 2003-04. Furthermore, every 'double-dip' La Niña of the last century has been followed by either one more La Niña winter or a switch to El Niño, so this is even more unusual. Meanwhile, we will have a few months before a return to La Niña becomes a possibility in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 18, 2012 Author Share Posted November 18, 2012 David Tolleris went for an epic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 David Tolleris went for an epic winter. Yeah, just skimmed his outlook. He really didn't get into final details of above/below normal for specific locations, but certainly seems to favor a cold/snowy winter for the eastern US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 18, 2012 Share Posted November 18, 2012 David Tolleris went for an epic winter. I wonder if that means the euro monthlies have turned cold or whether he is just basing it one the snow cover and the neg ao look that the extended 240 hour euro and 360 GFS ensemble means have been showing recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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