psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Judging from ewall there seems to be another storm around day 6... anyone have specifics on that one? Looks pretty potent and even cuts off at h5 for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I'd say .75 to 1 is GREAT for DC. That is, if tombo's map is right I see around 0.59" for DCA and 0.66" for BWI on my data. DCA is also showing 0.90" for the Tues/Wed event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I see around 0.59" for DCA and 0.66" for BWI on my data. DCA is also showing 0.90" for the Tues/Wed event. DOes the Tuesday event take a similar sort of track as this weekends event, or is it a completely different set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I see around 0.59" for DCA and 0.66" for BWI on my data. DCA is also showing 0.90" for the Tues/Wed event. Say what?!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 141 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010 VALID 12Z SUN DEC 19 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 23 2010 ...INCREASING THREAT OF MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM... ...CONTINUED HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I see around 0.59" for DCA and 0.66" for BWI on my data. DCA is also showing 0.90" for the Tues/Wed event. DOes the Tuesday event take a similar sort of track as this weekends event, or is it a completely different set up? I thought that event was a clipper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 DOes the Tuesday event take a similar sort of track as this weekends event, or is it a completely different set up? Just glancing at model data now...if someone else with better maps can chime in...would be appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I thought that event was a clipper? Well, just going off what I saw what the GFS was trying to do was it was a clipper, but then a secondary pops off of the MA coast and sits off of Cape Cod.... The EURO though is obviously showing something totally different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Wow...I was so focused on this storm, I didn't even realize the storm a few days later...not major but still shows a few inches at least for many areas in the northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dg12x Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Say what?!?! Just reporting what I see on the data. You made be go back to verify and I see the same thing for the Tues/Wed storm...Baltimore is around 0.70". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is the second run that has gone back to a coastal. This one was just further west than even last nights. O-o; Not to mention the bonus -8mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The ECMWF on the accupro site confirm both Tombo's precip map (though I believe it is a total precip accumulated map (?), so subtract whatever is falling today) and the significant precip that falls in the DC/northern VA region. The clipper secondaries around hour 144-150, but moves out instead of up. Widespread 0.50-0.75+ for much of that region. Closer to 0.25" in the Philly area, more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I guess I'm just confused on the clipper's evolution...on the GFS it is a rather weak wave, but now the Euro is showing a large swath of .50+ QPF back west into PA and OH? I know it pops a secondary, but what is it doing back in the OV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Wow...I was so focused on this storm, I didn't even realize the storm a few days later...not major but still shows a few inches at least for many areas in the northeast Sort of reminds me of the storm after the Jan 96 blizzard. Wasnt a big deal up here, but I know some areas in the lower MA got a significant amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Say what?!?! I see .34" for IAD on Sun and I think it's .70 for Wed into very early Thurs at IAD. It's important to note that the EC's accomplishing much of Wed/Thur with a bit of an inverted trof as it basically explodes the SFC low, and temporarily cuts off the UL, out over the gulf stream to the east of NC. This is a scenario that it's attempted a few times this season and particularly in the 132 - 168hr range. It hasn't yet been right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 If anyone can give a general idea on QPF for the clipper, that would be greatly appreciated for people who are not in the big cities and are further inland in PA/MD. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoD Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I guess I'm just confused on the clipper's evolution...on the GFS it is a rather weak wave, but now the Euro is showing a large swath of .50+ QPF back west into PA and OH? I know it pops a secondary, but what is it doing back in the OV? Is this by any chance what Roger Smith was talking about in one of his earlier threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 What sort of liquid to frozen ratio will be looking at with this storm? Preciep hr 108 DCA-.50+ BWI-.50+ PHL-.1.25 NYC 1.50+ BOS 1.50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Is this by any chance what Roger Smith was talking about in one of his earlier threads? This will probably get deleted, but no...he was predicting a cutter or apps runner, this is more of a clipper that forms a secondary that heads OTS after hitting the DCA/Balt area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 I guess I'm just confused on the clipper's evolution...on the GFS it is a rather weak wave, but now the Euro is showing a large swath of .50+ QPF back west into PA and OH? I know it pops a secondary, but what is it doing back in the OV? Ok this is just my best educated guess from viewing the free data on ewall but at 120 hours there is a closed H5 low over Ohio with a duel low pressure area, one center over western PA, the other starting to deepen off the Carrolina coast. 144 there is a bomb off the mid atlantic coast but fairly far OTS. From the evolution I would say the "clipper" is on sterroids and has a LOT of upper level energy associated with it and that is the reason for the heavy precip ammounts over the midwest into PA. The coastal bombs but moves east and that probably produces a second round of precip along the mid atlantic. The gap around Philly east is probably because the initial precip with the primary low dies out as it heads east because of the coastal taking over so they get screwed and then the coastal slides out mostly south of them. That is my best guess but I am using incomplete data so anyone with the precip output can clear this up better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Ok this is just my best educated guess from viewing the free data on ewall but at 120 hours there is a closed H5 low over Ohio with a duel low pressure area, one center over western PA, the other starting to deepen off the Carrolina coast. 144 there is a bomb off the mid atlantic coast but fairly far OTS. From the evolution I would say the "clipper" is on sterroids and has a LOT of upper level energy associated with it and that is the reason for the heavy precip ammounts over the midwest into PA. The coastal bombs but moves east and that probably produces a second round of precip along the mid atlantic. The gap around Philly east is probably because the initial precip with the primary low dies out as it heads east because of the coastal taking over so they get screwed and then the coastal slides out mostly south of them. That is my best guess but I am using incomplete data so anyone with the precip output can clear this up better. Thank you hoffman...very much appreciated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Euro has a blob of 0.1-0.25" for hour 144 in the Ohio, western PA region, reaching into the Altoona region. HR 150 has 0.1-0.25" over the central 2/3s of PA and into NE Ohio. By 156, most of the energy has is now in the secondary, but another 0.1 or so for CPA and closer to 0.25" in south CPA. Winners here are close to the PA/MD border. More south of this of course. Oh, and any PSU meteo students/alum, you have rights to Accuweather Pro. And it now has the EURO in detail. PM me for the username/password If anyone can give a general idea on QPF for the clipper, that would be greatly appreciated for people who are not in the big cities and are further inland in PA/MD. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Umm ETA5 anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 15Z SREF's are way west now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Euro has a blob of 0.1-0.25" for hour 144 in the Ohio, western PA region, reaching into the Altoona region. HR 150 has 0.1-0.25" over the central 2/3s of PA and into NE Ohio. By 156, most of the energy has is now in the secondary, but another 0.1 or so for CPA and closer to 0.25" in south CPA. Winners here are close to the PA/MD border. More south of this of course. Oh, and any PSU meteo students/alum, you have rights to Accuweather Pro. And it now has the EURO in detail. PM me for the username/password Thanks! Appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 last run of the SREF (9z) 3 hours sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 last run of the SREF (9z) 3 hours sooner The trend is our friend... one more run with that kind of shift and we're in serious business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 <br />Sort of reminds me of the storm after the Jan 96 blizzard. Wasnt a big deal up here, but I know some areas in the lower MA got a significant amount.<br /> Yeah it was kinda a surprise snow. No one expected another 9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Did anyone see the Euro ensembles? CoastalWX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 not to burst the happy party.. how far west is to much seems now there all moving west.. to much west would be BADD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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