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12z Model Thread - 12/16/10


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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

141 PM EST THU DEC 16 2010

VALID 12Z SUN DEC 19 2010 - 12Z THU DEC 23 2010

...INCREASING THREAT OF MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM...

...CONTINUED HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEST...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

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The ECMWF on the accupro site confirm both Tombo's precip map (though I believe it is a total precip accumulated map (?), so subtract whatever is falling today) and the significant precip that falls in the DC/northern VA region. The clipper secondaries around hour 144-150, but moves out instead of up. Widespread 0.50-0.75+ for much of that region. Closer to 0.25" in the Philly area, more west.

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Wow...I was so focused on this storm,  I didn't even realize the storm a few days later...not major but still shows a few inches at least for many areas in the northeast

Sort of reminds me of the storm after the Jan 96 blizzard.  Wasnt a big deal up here, but I know some areas in the lower MA got a significant amount.

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Say what?!?! :o

I see .34" for IAD on Sun and I think it's .70 for Wed into very early Thurs at IAD. It's important to note that the EC's accomplishing much of Wed/Thur with a bit of an inverted trof as it basically explodes the SFC low, and temporarily cuts off the UL, out over the gulf stream to the east of NC. This is a scenario that it's attempted a few times this season and particularly in the 132 - 168hr range. It hasn't yet been right.

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I guess I'm just confused on the clipper's evolution...on the GFS it is a rather weak wave, but now the Euro is showing a large swath of .50+ QPF back west into PA and OH? I know it pops a secondary, but what is it doing back in the OV?

Is this by any chance what Roger Smith was talking about in one of his earlier threads?

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I guess I'm just confused on the clipper's evolution...on the GFS it is a rather weak wave, but now the Euro is showing a large swath of .50+ QPF back west into PA and OH? I know it pops a secondary, but what is it doing back in the OV?

Ok this is just my best educated guess from viewing the free data on ewall but at 120 hours there is a closed H5 low over Ohio with a duel low pressure area, one center over western PA, the other starting to deepen off the Carrolina coast. 144 there is a bomb off the mid atlantic coast but fairly far OTS. From the evolution I would say the "clipper" is on sterroids and has a LOT of upper level energy associated with it and that is the reason for the heavy precip ammounts over the midwest into PA. The coastal bombs but moves east and that probably produces a second round of precip along the mid atlantic. The gap around Philly east is probably because the initial precip with the primary low dies out as it heads east because of the coastal taking over so they get screwed and then the coastal slides out mostly south of them. That is my best guess but I am using incomplete data so anyone with the precip output can clear this up better.

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Ok this is just my best educated guess from viewing the free data on ewall but at 120 hours there is a closed H5 low over Ohio with a duel low pressure area, one center over western PA, the other starting to deepen off the Carrolina coast. 144 there is a bomb off the mid atlantic coast but fairly far OTS. From the evolution I would say the "clipper" is on sterroids and has a LOT of upper level energy associated with it and that is the reason for the heavy precip ammounts over the midwest into PA. The coastal bombs but moves east and that probably produces a second round of precip along the mid atlantic. The gap around Philly east is probably because the initial precip with the primary low dies out as it heads east because of the coastal taking over so they get screwed and then the coastal slides out mostly south of them. That is my best guess but I am using incomplete data so anyone with the precip output can clear this up better.

Thank you hoffman...very much appreciated!

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Euro has a blob of 0.1-0.25" for hour 144 in the Ohio, western PA region, reaching into the Altoona region. HR 150 has 0.1-0.25" over the central 2/3s of PA and into NE Ohio. By 156, most of the energy has is now in the secondary, but another 0.1 or so for CPA and closer to 0.25" in south CPA. Winners here are close to the PA/MD border. More south of this of course.

Oh, and any PSU meteo students/alum, you have rights to Accuweather Pro. And it now has the EURO in detail. PM me for the username/password

If anyone can give a general idea on QPF for the clipper, that would be greatly appreciated for people who are not in the big cities and are further inland in PA/MD.

Thanks!

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Euro has a blob of 0.1-0.25" for hour 144 in the Ohio, western PA region, reaching into the Altoona region. HR 150 has 0.1-0.25" over the central 2/3s of PA and into NE Ohio. By 156, most of the energy has is now in the secondary, but another 0.1 or so for CPA and closer to 0.25" in south CPA. Winners here are close to the PA/MD border. More south of this of course.

Oh, and any PSU meteo students/alum, you have rights to Accuweather Pro. And it now has the EURO in detail. PM me for the username/password

Thanks! Appreciate it.

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