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12z Model Thread - 12/16/10


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Im telling you now you cant totally sleep on this storm, Im not saying its going to hit, but to call it done isn't wise...The trend of last winters and looks like this one again is for storms to trend NW inside 84 hours...The GFS Seems to try to phase it a touch faster, and if 00Z is another touch faster then your looking at least at some snow DC-NYC

I agree with this 100%. Another thing that me and my roommate were discussing earlier is that fact it seems as if its going up the the eastern edge of the gulf stream now. That is something (at least from what I have seen and read in various HPC discussions) that doesn't happen very often....more often than not, its the Western edge that gets the track. Not saying this will happen for this event, but something to keep in mind.

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Guest someguy

Models playing follow the leader. Euro shows storm. Others follow a few later. Euro goes ots; others follow later. Euro shows storm again (all be it.. not exactly the same.. ;x); etc... Emotions henge on the Euro? :P

yeah I agree.... 12z ggem and gfs are big snows for se VA up to RIC

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yeah I agree.... 12z ggem and gfs are big snows for se VA up to RIC

I have noticed for a couple years now that many times the other globals play follow the leader with the euro. Certainly last year with the Dec and Feb 6th storm that was the case, Euro had it first then lost it...others picked it up then lost it...euro brought it back, others did 12 hours later. Just proves what we already know that euro is king and the other models have serious catching up to do.

Richmond looks really good for this event IMO, DC/Balt/Philly need the low to phase and start to bomb about 6 hours sooner to get in the game...of course that would screw NYC and Boston so either way someone will be unhappy unfortunately.

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