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12z Model Thread - 12/16/10


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This is true. There isn't much difference in the southern stream at all. It's maybe 25 mi farther north.

Yes, the ridging is a major positive though.

I think if the current system affecting the Mid Atlantic is any indication, the southern energy should trend stronger in roughly 24-36 hours, which is when the current event appeared on DC's radar (about 60 hours out, I'd say?). But then again, maybe not. The EURO last night, although potentially a blip, was definitely enough to stoke confidence in a storm...

& FYI: the NAM's positioning of the PV at hr 60 is identical to the 0z Euro's at 72. Just food for thought.

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Yes, the ridging is a major positive though.

I think if the current system affecting the Mid Atlantic is any indication, the southern energy should trend stronger in roughly 24-36 hours, which is when the current event appeared on DC's radar (about 60 hours out, I'd say?). But then again, maybe not. The EURO last night, although potentially a blip, was definitely enough to stoke confidence in a storm...

& FYI: the NAM's positioning of the PV at hr 60 is identical to the 0z Euro's at 72. Just food for thought.

To me that would be the most important thing. At least based upon how HPC views this

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One problem we have is the extension of the PV over Quebec to the east. The psuedo 50/50 some have been talking about. In a normal situation when there is a stronger STJ wave we need the 50/50 low to prevent a track cutting inland and to keep the cold air source available. In this setup, however, when there is very little STJ involvement and the initial wave is weak and late to develop we almost need a track that would cut due north from off NC for DC to get a significant storm. The elongation of the PV to the east prevents the trough from going severely negative tilt early enough to cut the storm due north from NC. It continues a NE trajectory for a while then cuts back in well too late. Basically for DC to get a big snow Boston needs to be rain. The only other way would be if the models are way off on the strength of the STJ and the initial wave is much stronge and further north...but that is very unlikely now that the energy is on shore and being picked up.

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Im telling you now you cant totally sleep on this storm, Im not saying its going to hit, but to call it done isn't wise...The trend of last winters and looks like this one again is for storms to trend NW inside 84 hours...The GFS Seems to try to phase it a touch faster, and if 00Z is another touch faster then your looking at least at some snow DC-NYC

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Someone mentioned 12/26/04 yesterday. I haven't looked to see the model progression leading up to that event, but the precip swath after that event looks very close to today's 12z GFS run for the weekend storm.

It seems I can recall the models having a hard time with that event with the forecast for ESVA being T-0.5 less than 12 hours before the storm. The central ESVA totaled 14 in.

This scenario looks very similar as far as storm track, any other thoughts?

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