am19psu Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Not much difference in the NAM through T+54. Maybe a slightly stronger polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 NAM looks like a miss south of SNE once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Not much difference in the NAM through T+54. Maybe a slightly stronger polar vortex. Strongly disagree... everything is N&W, and there is much more ridging out in front of the system. One of the major differences is closing off of the PV lobe SE of Newfoundland, acting as a pseudo-50/50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 16, 2010 Author Share Posted December 16, 2010 and there is much more ridging out in front of the system This is true. There isn't much difference in the southern stream at all. It's maybe 25 mi farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 according to hpc model diagnostics...their beef with the Euro is that it is retrograding the PV too much allowing too much ridging in the nw atlantic and therefore closer to coast solution. How does the NAM look on this compared to the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Man, 66HR is a tease... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Man, 66HR is a tease... Yeah, I'm not hoping back on that train again. I think only SNE is in the game for this one. NAM is just enough to bring some folks back in, only to crush their dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 This is true. There isn't much difference in the southern stream at all. It's maybe 25 mi farther north. Yes, the ridging is a major positive though. I think if the current system affecting the Mid Atlantic is any indication, the southern energy should trend stronger in roughly 24-36 hours, which is when the current event appeared on DC's radar (about 60 hours out, I'd say?). But then again, maybe not. The EURO last night, although potentially a blip, was definitely enough to stoke confidence in a storm... & FYI: the NAM's positioning of the PV at hr 60 is identical to the 0z Euro's at 72. Just food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yeah, I'm not hoping back on that train again. I think only SNE is in the game for this one. NAM is just enough to bring some folks back in, only to crush their dreams It is way closer though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It does appear the short wave (second feature) is a bit stronger than guidance suggests as it treks across the SW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Yes, the ridging is a major positive though. I think if the current system affecting the Mid Atlantic is any indication, the southern energy should trend stronger in roughly 24-36 hours, which is when the current event appeared on DC's radar (about 60 hours out, I'd say?). But then again, maybe not. The EURO last night, although potentially a blip, was definitely enough to stoke confidence in a storm... & FYI: the NAM's positioning of the PV at hr 60 is identical to the 0z Euro's at 72. Just food for thought. To me that would be the most important thing. At least based upon how HPC views this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It does appear the short wave (second feature) is a bit stronger than guidance suggests as it treks across the SW... Did the center of the LP come ashore in California or further south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 The NAM is definitely an improvement. The system overall seems a bit slower (trough axis west of the 6z position) allowing for more amplification ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It's still way too flat for most of the mid atlantic. If I lived on eastern LOng Island and Cape Cod I might be interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Is it feasible for the Nam to be 200-300 miles off from 72 hours out? It just seems like it's getting late early as Yogi would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 It's still way too flat for most of the mid atlantic. If I lived on eastern LOng Island and Cape Cod I might be interested. Yeah I think anyone at SW of NYC is out of anything but light snow at this point, NYC is not looking great but still on the fence, SNE is the current jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 One problem we have is the extension of the PV over Quebec to the east. The psuedo 50/50 some have been talking about. In a normal situation when there is a stronger STJ wave we need the 50/50 low to prevent a track cutting inland and to keep the cold air source available. In this setup, however, when there is very little STJ involvement and the initial wave is weak and late to develop we almost need a track that would cut due north from off NC for DC to get a significant storm. The elongation of the PV to the east prevents the trough from going severely negative tilt early enough to cut the storm due north from NC. It continues a NE trajectory for a while then cuts back in well too late. Basically for DC to get a big snow Boston needs to be rain. The only other way would be if the models are way off on the strength of the STJ and the initial wave is much stronge and further north...but that is very unlikely now that the energy is on shore and being picked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GFS is going to drag the DCA to NYC crowd back in... its pretty close. SNE gets a huge hit by the GFS. The storm is still 84 hours away it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Man, GGEM is close to an I-95 hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GFS looks much better. Its still to late for those of us to the west of DCA and BWI. Maybe some light overrun before the main event for SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Im telling you now you cant totally sleep on this storm, Im not saying its going to hit, but to call it done isn't wise...The trend of last winters and looks like this one again is for storms to trend NW inside 84 hours...The GFS Seems to try to phase it a touch faster, and if 00Z is another touch faster then your looking at least at some snow DC-NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ridingtime Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Remember how the GGEM was like in Bermuda yesterday? I feel like it's more inconsistent than the GFS. Really none of the models have given us a good idea what the heck this storm is going to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Man, GGEM is close to an I-95 hit. Things have taken a change, maybe the server change out was good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 84hrs.. 96hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 GGEM 66 - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 ... Sacrus, are you going to be able to put together a "tracking" thread here on american like we used to have on Eastern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Sacrus, are you going to be able to put together a "tracking" thread here on american like we used to have on Eastern? Yes of course! Wish I could go back and get the links but I'l throw it up friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MACoastWx Posted December 16, 2010 Share Posted December 16, 2010 Someone mentioned 12/26/04 yesterday. I haven't looked to see the model progression leading up to that event, but the precip swath after that event looks very close to today's 12z GFS run for the weekend storm. It seems I can recall the models having a hard time with that event with the forecast for ESVA being T-0.5 less than 12 hours before the storm. The central ESVA totaled 14 in. This scenario looks very similar as far as storm track, any other thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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