bluewave Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 A recent NCAR study lends support to more aggressive scenarios of climate change. Climate model projections showing a greater rise in global temperature are likely to prove more accurate than those showing a lesser rise, according to a new analysis by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The findings, published in this week’s issue of Science, could provide a breakthrough in the longstanding quest to narrow the range of global warming expected in coming decades and beyond... The climate models that most accurately captured these complex moisture processes and associated clouds, which have a major influence on global climate, were also the ones that showed the greatest amounts of warming as society emits more greenhouse gas into the atmosphere. https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/8264/future-warming-likely-be-high-side-climate-projections-analysis-finds The related journal article can be found here: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/338/6108/792.full.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 It's important not to draw conclusions about the entire globe/climate based on one relatively small area (the Arctic). Yes, scientists have underestimated the amount of change that has occurred there to this point. However, global temperature change, the truest measure of global climate change, has not exceeded expectations - in fact, it has underwhelmed compared to early scenarios presented in the 1980s and early 1990s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 It's important not to draw conclusions about the entire globe/climate based on one relatively small area (the Arctic). Yes, scientists have underestimated the amount of change that has occurred there to this point. However, global temperature change, the truest measure of global climate change, has not exceeded expectations - in fact, it has underwhelmed compared to early scenarios presented in the 1980s and early 1990s. The AR4 IPCC projections from 2007 are currently too bullish as well on global temperatures, though the models have only 12 years worth of verification, but it is extremely unlikely they will be within their confidence intervals even by 2030...they will probably drift further and further away. Arctic sea ice has a lot of nuances that are obviously not well understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 The AR4 IPCC projections from 2007 are currently too bullish as well on global temperatures, though the models have only 12 years worth of verification, but it is extremely unlikely they will be within their confidence intervals even by 2030...they will probably drift further and further away. Arctic sea ice has a lot of nuances that are obviously not well understood. https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/8264/future-warming-likely-be-high-side-climate-projections-analysis-finds "The authors focused on climate models used for the 2007–08 assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The next-generation models being used for the upcoming 2013–14 IPCC assessment were found to behave in a similar fashion, as described in a preliminary analysis by the authors in a supplement to their paper." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 https://www2.ucar.ed...-analysis-finds "The authors focused on climate models used for the 2007–08 assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The next-generation models being used for the upcoming 2013–14 IPCC assessment were found to behave in a similar fashion, as described in a preliminary analysis by the authors in a supplement to their paper." Yeesh, so they are using a narrow zone of subtropical air to say that the models with faster warming are correct. We better drastically speed up the process globally because they are out to lunch so far. I'm sure some models are better at reproducing things like relative humidiy in certain climate zones, but it appears to be a stretch to say that these models will be the most accurate globally for temperature going forward. Especially since the warmer models have been the worst thus far. Obviously it could change, but that would require a very rapid warming at some point here in the next decade or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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