Nickysixes Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 From the Gaylord, MI AFD this afternoon: TELECONNECTIONS/LARGE SCALE PATTERN: TELECONNECTION INDICES TODAY REVEAL A POSITIVE AO...WEAKLY NEGATIVE PNA AND NEUTRAL /BUT TRENDING POSITIVE/ NAO. GEFS PLUME DIAGRAMS INDICATE THIS SETUP IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST /AND LIKELY SOMEWHAT BEYOND THIS/. IN TERMS OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...THE PRIMARY FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE THE CURRENT LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY RETROGRESSING OVER THE PAST WEEK...WITH INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE /WITH LACK OF ANY DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING/...BUT WILL RELOAD SOMEWHAT FURTHER WEST...SO THAT BY THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...TROUGHING WILL TAKE SHAPE WEST OF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR US? CERTAINLY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD AS THE INITIAL WESTERN TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY. BEYOND THIS.../AFTER A BRIEF INTRUSION OF POLAR AIR/ BRISK PACIFIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...SUGGESTING A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER WEATHER-MAKER BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ENERGY ROTATES OUT OF THE RELOADING WESTERN TROUGH. CPC DAY 8 ANALOGS: NUMEROUS EXAMPLES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH COOL DOWNS ONLY BACK TO NORMAL/JUST BELOW SIGNIFYING AN ACTIVE...BUT MILD PATTERN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 The GFS is also picking up this idea, even out to 15 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 From the Gaylord, MI AFD this afternoon:TELECONNECTIONS/LARGE SCALE PATTERN: TELECONNECTION INDICES TODAY REVEAL A POSITIVE AO...WEAKLY NEGATIVE PNA AND NEUTRAL /BUT TRENDING POSITIVE/ NAO. GEFS PLUME DIAGRAMS INDICATE THIS SETUP IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST /AND LIKELY SOMEWHAT BEYOND THIS/. IN TERMS OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN...THE PRIMARY FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE THE CURRENT LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN GRADUALLY RETROGRESSING OVER THE PAST WEEK...WITH INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD. THE INITIAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE /WITH LACK OF ANY DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING/...BUT WILL RELOAD SOMEWHAT FURTHER WEST...SO THAT BY THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...TROUGHING WILL TAKE SHAPE WEST OF THE WEST COAST OF NOAM. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR US? CERTAINLY AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO START THE PERIOD AS THE INITIAL WESTERN TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY. BEYOND THIS.../AFTER A BRIEF INTRUSION OF POLAR AIR/ BRISK PACIFIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS...SUGGESTING A SEASONABLY MILD PERIOD...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER WEATHER-MAKER BY NEXT WEEKEND AS ENERGY ROTATES OUT OF THE RELOADING WESTERN TROUGH. CPC DAY 8 ANALOGS: NUMEROUS EXAMPLES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH COOL DOWNS ONLY BACK TO NORMAL/JUST BELOW SIGNIFYING AN ACTIVE...BUT MILD PATTERN. This month will continue the above normal Novembers we have been accustomed to. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 This month will continue the above normal Novembers we have been accustomed to. Jon Actually we are sitting quite a bit below normal temp-wise so far for November. Just been so benign on the weather front. Hopefully Ma Nature is saving it all for Dec-Mar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 11, 2012 Share Posted November 11, 2012 Actually we are sitting quite a bit below normal temp-wise so far for November. Just been so benign on the weather front. Hopefully Ma Nature is saving it all for Dec-Mar! It's going to be close.... We are at -6 or so right now. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 No snow yet... if this keeps up through the end of the month, it would be the first time there was not at least a trace of snow during the month of November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 No snow yet... if this keeps up through the end of the month, it would be the first time there was not at least a trace of snow during the month of November. 2/3 of November to go...TONS of Novembers had no snow the first 11 days lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Where do you live entropy? I have had 3 days with snow already this winter. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entropy Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 2/3 of November to go...TONS of Novembers had no snow the first 11 days lol. Well, the forecast for the next seven days shows only a slight chance of snow tonight. So if it doesn't occur tonight, it will be November 18th at least before it does occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Well be lucky if we see measurable snow this month. I'm still thinking we have a painfully slow start to winter this year. Maybe mid-January is when we see real winter kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Where do you live entropy? I have had 3 days with snow already this winter. Jon Ive had a T on Oct 29, 30, Nov 2....DTW had a T on Oct 29, 30 but not Nov 2, so technically DTW is at 0 for Nov so far...but I mean, its Nov 12th, so much of the month to go, and in a location like ours its not very hard to get some flakes lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Well be lucky if we see measurable snow this month. I'm still thinking we have a painfully slow start to winter this year. Maybe mid-January is when we see real winter kick in. You obviously have an unrealistically bad feeling about this winter, as Ive witnessed in other posts, but you wont be "lucky" to have measurable snow this month. You probably have at least an 80% chance of measurable snow this month. Now, whether its any snow of consequence or whether its just a tenth or two, or whether it stays on the ground for days or hours, thats up in the air, because after all, its November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Well be lucky if we see measurable snow this month. I'm still thinking we have a painfully slow start to winter this year. Maybe mid-January is when we see real winter kick in. February will be rockin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 February will be rockin'. As much as I have been saying this winter could be boring, I'm thinking because we've seen the southern stream of the jet this fall that may provide for another GHD 2011. Maybe with not those snow amounts but a 10-16'' snowstorm for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 February will be rockin'. We are VERY overdue for a bookend winter. Say December through early Jan snow-blitz, then a boring mid-Jan to mid-Feb then a mid-Feb to late Mar snow-blitz. Not saying I want this, just saying we seem very overdue. In the end, the past decades trends here are below normal Nov & Mar snow, with above normal Dec, Jan, Feb snow (Apr has been near normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 As much as I have been saying this winter could be boring, I'm thinking because we've seen the southern stream of the jet this fall that may provide for another GHD 2011. Maybe with not those snow amounts but a 10-16'' snowstorm for the area. 1998-99 redux? Would you be satisfied with a repeat of that winter? Because it had some really awful times, but some really fun times as well...though overall, it was a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Where do you live entropy? I have had 3 days with snow already this winter. Jon Really? Wow, I haven't even had one. We had a day in October with graupel, but that's it. This is the one time of year I don't like living near Lake Michigan! Very irritating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 12, 2012 Share Posted November 12, 2012 Well be lucky if we see measurable snow this month. I'm still thinking we have a painfully slow start to winter this year. Maybe mid-January is when we see real winter kick in. Well if this winter doesn't work, there is always next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 1998-99 redux? Would you be satisfied with a repeat of that winter? Because it had some really awful times, but some really fun times as well...though overall, it was a torch. I'd love a repeat of that winter. It got off to a very slow start, but the first major snowstorm of the season was a massive one here in Detroit. Officially about a foot at DTW, 16" at my house, and we got hammered three times in a row after that with big snowstorms giving us either the 1st or 2nd greatest snowpack of all time at Detroit. I don't remember for certain where it ranked, but it was in the 20"-30"+ range for most of the metro area, I remember the city of Detroit struggling to find places to put all of the snow it was removing from the roads and they would just pile it up over and over in vacant lots. There was this one lot down the street from me that once housed a corner store, across from a school, and I remember me and a bunch of kids sledding down a 10-15' tall mountain of snow that filled up an area about the size of two city lots. It was awesome. Never seen anything like that before and who knows when I will again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted November 13, 2012 Share Posted November 13, 2012 The best part of 1999 was the severe weather outbreak that followed the blizzard by a couple of weeks. It was awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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