Uncertainties with Earth's Energy Imbalance

[Snow_Miser]

A new paper authored by Graeme Stephens et al. conclude that significant uncertainties remain with calculating the Earth's Energy Imbalance. Here are a few quotes from the paper:

"This lack of precise knowledge of surface energy fluxes profoundly affects our ability to understand how Earth’s climate responds to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases."

Yet, even though we do not have a good grasp at all with regard to the fundamental aspect of how Earth's Energy Budget changes with an increase in Greenhouse Gases, some would prefer to say that the science be "settled science."

The authors conclude that:

“For the decade considered [2000-2010], the average imbalance is 0.6 = 340.2 − 239.7 − 99.9 Wm² when these TOA fluxes are constrained to the best estimate ocean heat content (OHC) observations since 2005 (refs 13,14). This small imbalance is over two orders of magnitude smaller than the individual components that define it and smaller than the error of each individual flux. The combined uncertainty on the net TOA flux determined from CERES is ±4 Wm²(95% confidence) due largely to instrument calibration errors^12,15. Thus the sum of current satellite-derived fluxes cannot determine the net TOA radiation imbalance with the accuracy needed to track such small imbalances associated with forced climate change¹¹.”

The uncertainty with measuring the Imbalance is significantly larger than the actual imbalance itself.

Discuss.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Before reading any papers or doing any other sort of research.

I think us melting over ONE TRILLION TONNES OF LAND ICE IN 2010, 2011, AND 2012.

Speaks volumes about the energy budget, expecially when you consider OHC levels are at record highs, SST's are at record highs for the ENSO state, and temperatures are also at record highs per climate states.

You can't melt out that much ice and not have a massive energy imbalance.

[Snow_Miser]

Before reading any papers or doing any other sort of research.

I think us melting over ONE TRILLION TONNES OF LAND ICE IN 2010, 2011, AND 2012.

Speaks volumes about the energy budget, expecially when you consider OHC levels are at record highs, SST's are at record highs for the ENSO state, and temperatures are also at record highs per climate states.

You can't melt out that much ice and not have a massive energy imbalance.

And all of that ice is confined to tiny portions of the Earth. That doesn't tell us anything about the global energy imbalance at all.

[skierinvermont]

A new paper authored by Graeme Stephens et al. conclude that significant uncertainties remain with calculating the Earth's Energy Imbalance. Here are a few quotes from the paper:

"This lack of precise knowledge of surface energy fluxes profoundly affects our ability to understand how Earth’s climate responds to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases."

Yet, even though we do not have a good grasp at all with regard to the fundamental aspect of how Earth's Energy Budget changes with an increase in Greenhouse Gases, some would prefer to say that the science be "settled science."

The authors conclude that:

“For the decade considered [2000-2010], the average imbalance is 0.6 = 340.2 − 239.7 − 99.9 Wm² when these TOA fluxes are constrained to the best estimate ocean heat content (OHC) observations since 2005 (refs 13,14). This small imbalance is over two orders of magnitude smaller than the individual components that define it and smaller than the error of each individual flux. The combined uncertainty on the net TOA flux determined from CERES is ±4 Wm²(95% confidence) due largely to instrument calibration errors^12,15. Thus the sum of current satellite-derived fluxes cannot determine the net TOA radiation imbalance with the accuracy needed to track such small imbalances associated with forced climate change¹¹.”

The uncertainty with measuring the Imbalance is significantly larger than the actual imbalance itself.

Discuss.

It appears some revisions to Trenberth's energy diagram are in order.

However, you will note that the paper is not questioning the fact that there is an imbalance which can be very narrowly constrained by OHC. The paper is addressing the imprecise measurements of this flux through the atmosphere.

[Snow_Miser]

It appears some revisions to Trenberth's energy diagram are in order.

However, you will note that the paper is not questioning the fact that there is an imbalance which can be very narrowly constrained by OHC. The paper is addressing the imprecise measurements of this flux through the atmosphere.

There is a lag though with the OHC change just like there is with temperature to a change in the energy imbalance, thus satellites would be the best way to determine if there is an energy imbalance or not. Unfortunately, there are substantial uncertainties that still remain with the satellites that measure ISR and OLR.