bluehens Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Shorts and t-shirts Sunday/Monday. Impressive cold month of November though at ILG....likely to finish around -4.0 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I don't know what that means. They're toasty. It's that weird pattern though, where we have a weak -NAO, but the Pac jet/GoA low dominates. metfan..i mean snow88' was saying the weeklies came in with a 93-94ish type pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 metfan..i mean snow88' was saying the weeklies came in with a 93-94ish type pattern. Was it 93-94 or 94-95 with a **** load of ice events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Was it 93-94 or 94-95 with a **** load of ice events? 93-94' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 metfan..i mean snow88' was saying the weeklies came in with a 93-94ish type pattern. How much stock can we reasonably put into the Euro weeklies beyond week two though? Seems like the latter weeks flip quite a bit, but as would be expected, shorter term is more consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 metfan..i mean snow88' was saying the weeklies came in with a 93-94ish type pattern. [sarcasm]Why would you listen to metfan's descriptions of a pattern[/sarcasm] In all seriousness, I'm not a big analog guy, I'm a synoptician. So whenever the analog brigade starts showing up telling us what 1955 looked like in NYC, I just kinda shrug and go away. It doesn't tell me anything about why a pattern looks the way it does or what the primary forcing mechanisms are, so it's not intellectually stimulating to me. That's a roundabout way of saying I haven't a clue what the 1993-94 pattern looked like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 How much stock can we reasonably put into the Euro weeklies beyond week two though? Seems like the latter weeks flip quite a bit, but as would be expected, shorter term is more consistent. Yeah, clearly Weeks 3 and 4 need to be taken with a grain of salt. I use them if they line up with other intraseasonal variables I'm considering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 93-94' That winter I had a 3 foot depth of ice on the sidewalk had 8 hours to clear it per local police because of some complaints but the apartment complex was not told to remove it but us only on the corner. It was the townships fault for plowing it onto the damn sidewalk and it all froze over, radnor has a problem where they plow all the way onto the fricken sidewalks worse then any other area around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 [sarcasm]Why would you listen to metfan's descriptions of a pattern[/sarcasm] In all seriousness, I'm not a big analog guy, I'm a synoptician. So whenever the analog brigade starts showing up telling us what 1955 looked like in NYC, I just kinda shrug and go away. It doesn't tell me anything about why a pattern looks the way it does or what the primary forcing mechanisms are, so it's not intellectually stimulating to me. That's a roundabout way of saying I haven't a clue what the 1993-94 pattern looked like. Weak positive ENSO, positive NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Weak positive ENSO, positive NAO. but i believe it had a big -epo block which brought down the cold air... phl had like 22 inches while abe had 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 but i believe it had a big -epo block which brought down the cold air... phl had like 22 inches while abe had 75 Hmm... maybe I'm reading this wrong, but it doesn't look that bad on this listing... ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/tele_index.nh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Hmm... maybe I'm reading this wrong, but it doesn't look that bad on this listing... ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wd52dg/data/indices/tele_index.nh on what the -epo? Their had to be a big mechanism to bring down the cold because that was a pretty cold year. I was only in 4th grade but i remember the ice and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 on what the -epo? Their had to be a big mechanism to bring down the cold because that was a pretty cold year. I was only in 4th grade but i remember the ice and cold. I remember it too, but unless I'm reading that wrong, it looks like it ran positive in January 1994. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 I remember it too, but unless I'm reading that wrong, it looks like it ran positive in January 1994. what mechanism brought the cold then? Was their a big pna ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 what mechanism brought the cold then? Was their a big pna ridge? PNA averaged negative (-.80). So no. The EP/NP listed in the chart... maybe that's not the same thing as the EPO. CPC doesn't list a typical correlation for January, describing it as a spring/summer/fall pattern only, but for the spring, summer and fall, the EP/NP correlates negatively with eastern North America temps. In other words, positive EP/NP (as occurred in January 1994) means cold. The East Atlantic West Russia pattern was the other strong index, which correlates positively to eastern North America temps in January. In other words, positive means warm, negative means cold. EA/WR was negative in January 1994. This lists daily values for EPO, which if you average all the days together, turns out negative (-64). http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/epo.daily not sure if that's how you are supposed to calculate the average for the month, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 Oh, of note also is that AO in January 1994 was negative (though only weakly). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 PNA averaged negative (-.80). So no. The EP/NP listed in the chart... maybe that's not the same thing as the EPO. CPC doesn't list a typical correlation for January, describing it as a spring/summer/fall pattern only, but for the spring, summer and fall, the EP/NP correlates negatively with eastern North America temps. In other words, positive EP/NP (as occurred in January 1994) means cold. The East Atlantic West Russia pattern was the other strong index, which correlates positively to eastern North America temps in January. In other words, positive means warm, negative means cold. EA/WR was negative in January 1994. This lists daily values for EPO, which if you average all the days together, turns out negative (-64). http://www.esrl.noaa...ation/epo.daily not sure if that's how you are supposed to calculate the average for the month, though. EP/NP is the inverse of EPO (negative EP = positive EPO, and vice versa) I did a monthly analog match-up for the EPO on my still-unfinished teleconnections page: http://madusweather....eleconnections/ Specifically, here's the -EPO (+EP/NP) for January: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted November 30, 2012 Share Posted November 30, 2012 EP/NP is the inverse of EPO (negative EP = positive EPO, and vice versa) I did a monthly analog match-up for the EPO on my still-unfinished teleconnections page: http://madusweather....eleconnections/ Specifically, here's the -EPO (+EP/NP) for January: Well, that's helpful. Looking at the map, either the EPO was extreme or it had help, since PHL was -6. TTN was -7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 No mention yet in this thread, but slight mention of some freezing drizzle up this way overnight. Probably limited to northern Northampton/Lehigh counties and upwards to southern Poconos and NW NJ, but I guess something to watch. Currently 33.7° here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 No mention yet in this thread, but slight mention of some freezing drizzle up this way overnight. Probably limited to northern Northampton/Lehigh counties and upwards to southern Poconos and NW NJ, but I guess something to watch. Currently 33.7° here. 33.6° here in Bangor. Watching the returns to see if we might get a bit of -SN tonight. Thin overcast at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 33.6° here in Bangor. Watching the returns to see if we might get a bit of -SN tonight. Thin overcast at the moment. keep us updated. You will probably have a better chance than I will. Down slightly to 33.2° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Not really sold on this for the Lehigh Valley, and may be overkill with the WWA issued for Pike and Monroe.... but better safe than sorry I suppose.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Not really sold on this for the Lehigh Valley, and may be overkill with the WWA issued for Pike and Monroe.... but better safe than sorry I suppose.... ...and makes sense. If only a slight chance, its OK to mention, (imo). Glad you're on here Bobby. Need a voice up here in the LV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 I did notice there is very little of a Lehigh Valley contingent on here.... but will be well represented Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 ...and makes sense. If only a slight chance, its OK to mention, (imo). Glad you're on here Bobby. Need a voice up here in the LV. Only shot lehigh valley has is frz rain or sleet. The temps above the surface are not conducive for snow. Warm layer with the warm advection just above the surface and above 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 Only shot lehigh valley has is frz rain or sleet. The temps above the surface are not conducive for snow. Warm layer with the warm advection just above the surface and above 850 Agree. Walt Drag had a nice write up in the AFD earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 I honestly don't see the LV getting anything... unless you were to believe the 4km NAM HI RES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 keep us updated. You will probably have a better chance than I will. Down slightly to 33.2° Will do. RH increasing region-wide, but those radar returns are few and far between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 And as I say that, NWS/KDIX has extended the advisory to Carbon county.... O_o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 1, 2012 Share Posted December 1, 2012 And as I say that, NWS/KDIX has extended the advisory to Carbon county.... O_o FYI... KDIX is the radar site. KPHI is the office. Usually just referred to without the K. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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