johnc Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 The "Ray effect" in full force today, several showers but no hail. 18 hail reports for the CWA... but none in your backyard. How do you manage to do it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 18 hail reports for the CWA... but none in your backyard. How do you manage to do it? I'm just a force of nature, I can't be denied Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 19, 2012 Author Share Posted December 19, 2012 Webcam from Blue Mountain for Quakertown Needs Snow. Looking good! paybacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 thi pacific december pattern is wretched... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 I know I'm waay late to the party but I was driving on Rt. 38 yesterday by chance and hit that hail core near Mount Laurel. The hail was pea sized but plentiful. Pretty cool convection yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ago4snow Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 thi pacific december pattern is wretched... Right now I'm listening to WHO radio in Des Moines and I have all the Iowa webcams up and running. Considering our lack of snow, I'll just have to enjoy a virtual blizzard from a distance. Looks like their biggest storm since 1996, so it is interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 19, 2012 Share Posted December 19, 2012 Right now I'm listening to WHO radio in Des Moines and I have all the Iowa webcams up and running. Considering our lack of snow, I'll just have to enjoy a virtual blizzard from a distance. Looks like their biggest storm since 1996, so it is interesting to watch. ive been to iowa before. What a boring state.... lol. But good for them. Somebody has to cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I don't think our area gets a ton of snow in December. Isn't the average pretty measly? I realize we cashed in with storms in 2010 and 2011, but that was the exception, not the rule. I think PHL should expect little (if any) snow in December and pray the pattern is improved by January. You just have to hope this isn't a winter where the cold and snow is always ten days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I don't think our area gets a ton of snow in December. Isn't the average pretty measly? I realize we cashed in with storms in 2010 and 2011, but that was the exception, not the rule. I think PHL should expect little (if any) snow in December and pray the pattern is improved by January. You just have to hope this isn't a winter where the cold and snow is always ten days away. I did a writeup about December snow setting the "trend" for winter this last week. 5"+ by 12/31 typically yields a good winter...not always the case but it happens that way more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 I did a writeup about December snow setting the "trend" for winter this last week. 5"+ by 12/31 typically yields a good winter...not always the case but it happens that way more often than not. Nice article. What I gather from it is that, if we receive no snow (or a trace) in December, we have about a 30% chance of hitting our average snowfall (and I use the term "average" loosely)? Pretty poor chances, overall, but it certainly makes sense. Obviously bigger snows in December count more significantly to the average, so it takes less throughout the winter to hit the average after. I find this amusing, though, because just from anecdotal evidence, I always found October snow to result in pretty low snowfall through the rest of the winter. I think there is some correlation there. I have to wonder if snowfall in our area runs more cyclical based on how much the snow varies from year to year. Has there ever been a period when we've hit out "average" say five years in a row? I've learned pretty quickly to go elsewhere if I want snow--somewhere that sees snow much more consistently than PHL. There are just way too many variables to account for on the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Off topic but there is another major power outage here in marlboro nj monmouth county!! Spreading to other parts of the area too. Jcp&l has no idea why either. Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Nice article. What I gather from it is that, if we receive no snow (or a trace) in December, we have about a 30% chance of hitting our average snowfall (and I use the term "average" loosely)? Pretty poor chances, overall, but it certainly makes sense. Obviously bigger snows in December count more significantly to the average, so it takes less throughout the winter to hit the average after. I find this amusing, though, because just from anecdotal evidence, I always found October snow to result in pretty low snowfall through the rest of the winter. I think there is some correlation there. I have to wonder if snowfall in our area runs more cyclical based on how much the snow varies from year to year. Has there ever been a period when we've hit out "average" say five years in a row? I've learned pretty quickly to go elsewhere if I want snow--somewhere that sees snow much more consistently than PHL. There are just way too many variables to account for on the coastal plain. Thanks! Answering your question, the closest since the '70's was 83-84 to 87-88: 21.6, 16.5, 16.4, 25.7, 15.0. The other decent stretch of five where things were consistent was 61-62 to 65-66: 29.2, 20.5, 32.9, 26.2, 27.4 (there was a 49.1 before that and a 44.3 after that). Most winters in most locations, even in the Midwest, are variable to an extent but a place like Minneapolis has an average of 45 so a "bad" winter there is 25 while a big winter would be in the 70's or 80's for snow...but even there winter-to-winter would bounce around a fair amount (25 one winter, 67 the next, 44 the third, 58 the fourth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 And God said, Let their be light!! Hahaha Yes we just got our power back on. Only an hour without power. Not too bad, but it brought back alot of horrible memories from November for my wife and kids. Hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Just back from Longwood Gardens. Nice chill in the air. Lights were beautiful, although not picked up too well on my iPhone. Definetely worth the trip to see IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 February 23 1994. Low tracked into the Lakes, however there was strong CAD in our area from a pretty strong HP. There was barely even a redeveloping low. Precip overrode the cold that was in place, it dumped a few inches of snow in our parts before changing to rain I guess. I see a lot of similarities with how that storm looks at 500mb and the potential pattern for Dec 28 storm. Check it out. Just showing an example of how we can get snow even with a low that tracks far into the Lakes. Even if it's just a front-end dump. http://www.raymondcm.../23-Feb-94.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS loses the Christmas wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 GFS loses the Christmas wave. But it does have a Friday evening vort. max flizzard for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Given the choice I think i would rather have 1-2 inches on christmas then a 6+ inch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 February 23 1994. Low tracked into the Lakes, however there was strong CAD in our area from a pretty strong HP. There was barely even a redeveloping low. Precip overrode the cold that was in place, it dumped a few inches of snow in our parts before changing to rain I guess. I see a lot of similarities with how that storm looks at 500mb and the potential pattern for Dec 28 storm. Check it out. Just showing an example of how we can get snow even with a low that tracks far into the Lakes. Even if it's just a front-end dump. http://www.raymondcm.../23-Feb-94.html issue their is, the high is a lot stronger and in a better spot than this coming storm as modeled now. It has a 1036 high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 But it does have a Friday evening vort. max flizzard for our area. lol just going off what the model is showing, but thats more like sprinkles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 lol just going off what the model is showing, but thats more like sprinkles Thanks for destroying my dreams We should "cash in" on a few flurries at some point. Oh well, sweet sunrise this morning with the pinks/violets/purples.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Thanks for destroying my dreams We should "cash in" on a few flurries at some point. Oh well, sweet sunrise this morning with the pinks/violets/purples.... you should get some flizzards sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Tom - I would bet on some squalls making it at least as far as our neck of the woods in the N and W burbs of Philly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Tom - I would bet on some squalls making it at least as far as our neck of the woods in the N and W burbs of Philly! Yea i would to Paul especially after midnight fri through sat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 wouldn't also be shocked to see some wind advisories posted for saturday. The 925mb winds are 55-70 mph. So any kind of mixing could bring down some gusts to 40-50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Current Wxsim has rain arriving a bit earlier than my current NWS forecast by around 6pm with moderate rain by 9pm this evening. Total rain 1.33" . Wxsim also sees a mix of snow/IP arriving Christmas eve around midnight transitioning to plain rain on Christmas morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Tom - I would bet on some squalls making it at least as far as our neck of the woods in the N and W burbs of Philly! Yea i would to Paul especially after midnight fri through sat Does a Huron connection help you down there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 20, 2012 Share Posted December 20, 2012 Does a Huron connection help you down there? i have no clue honestly. I think we do better when their is lake enhancement from ULL's and what not. Especially in this flow to its going to be pretty windy and a cold airmass going through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 20, 2012 Author Share Posted December 20, 2012 It feels and smells like snow outside. Mid 30's clouds rolling in. Weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.