tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 No, I meant A PV retreating to the pole makes a +AO more likely well for your torch monger mind thats clapping..for the rest of the eastern seaboard its a monumental fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 is it possible though once the pv retreats back to the pole that a -nao could form? Or is the nao and ao basically a shared relationship? They're highly correlated, but they don't always have to be the same direction (like now for example). What you'd really like to see if the PV retreats to the pole is a strong MJO push to buckle the mid-latitude flow. Otherwise, what else is there to block things up? Solar stuff, maybe, but I'm not too good there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 They're highly correlated, but they don't always have to be the same direction (like now for example). What you'd really like to see if the PV retreats to the pole is a strong MJO push to buckle the mid-latitude flow. Otherwise, what else is there to block things up? Solar stuff, maybe, but I'm not too good there. need that stronger wave from the mjo in phase 8ish to occur as progged around christmas time to trend stronger if the scenario you stated happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 need that stronger wave from the mjo in phase 8ish to occur as progged around christmas time if the scenario you stated happens. Yep. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Thanks for the clarification... I made it three years, but was starting to figure that was year four stuff. Makes perfect sense what you said. I thought I was missing something when I caught this earlier from Paul Pastelok... "Well, for the first time in a while, I am starting to see signs of warming at the stratospheric level over the pole. The latest AO shows negative values through the 15-day period. But looking at the cross-section, you can see the beginning signs of warming. However, classic warming begins high then sinks in the stratosphere, forcing cold into the troposphere then eventually to the surface and midlatitudes but with a significant delay. This tells me the pattern will change mid-month" And then Steve D... "The observations from the stratosphere is the fact the the QBO is negative at both 30 MB and 50 MB, which allows for the transport of very warm air from the stratospheric tropical regions to the polar regions. This process is leading to a shift in the location of warm anomalies towards North America and away from Europe. The second factor is the activity of the sun This is a wild card to watch for sure. The last time I saw a decrease in solar flare activity like this was 2009/10 winter period. So for the final two weeks of December and much of January I’m expecting a far colder and stormier pattern for the eastern two thirds of the United States. The coldest conditions should be focused over the northern and central Plains, Ohio Valley, and Great Lakes. Look out for very stormy winter weather pattern for New England, Mid Atlantic, and portions of the Southeast." Interesting stuff... but they don't usually hype and are pretty straightforward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I'll try to post something tomorrow to illustrate I was talking about. Going to bed now. Night y'all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I'll try to post something tomorrow to illustrate I was talking about. Going to bed now. Night y'all sounds good...i think i might make a thread on questions for meteorologists like explanations. For instance, if someone who doesn't grasp the mjo, would be good for someone who understands it or a met to help a novice out. I would like to know more about the QBO since i hear that being thrown around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 sounds good...i think i might make a thread on questions for meteorologists like explanations. For instance, if someone who doesn't grasp the mjo, would be good for someone who understands it or a met to help a novice out. I would like to know more about the QBO since i hear that being thrown around. Absolutely... I second that... stratospheric influences on the troposphere for me is a weakness for sure. Would love to learn more about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 No, but Pronger went down in first 5 mins of the only game I attended all season---surely just a coincidence, like little snowfall in the LV in last few years. ever since colin was banned from here the lv hasnt cashed in...its the curse of colin.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 guess we won't be hearing from Parsley tomorrow.... poor guy... at least us eagles fans know we don't have a chance. Giants fans still believe in the tooth fairy as well !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I'll try to post something tomorrow to illustrate I was talking about. Going to bed now. Night y'all When I'm talking about a wave 1 response, this is what I mean: The polar vortex is shifted to the Western Hemisphere, with high heights and warm temperatures located in the Eastern Hemisphere. That's a "wave 1" pattern - where the PV gets dislodged from the pole. A wave 2 pattern has two areas of lower heights and two areas of higher heights. This pattern is also sometimes referred to as vortex splitting. Right now, we have a wave 2 pattern, but it's not classic, with the heights over the North Atlantic muted. Here are the current stratospheric temps in the polar region. There is warm up expected this week with the wave 1 response, but it's not a SSW and it's not going to be long lasting. What's more interesting is that the E-P flux vectors are pointed poleward around mid-month, but they aren't pointed upward, so I'm not sure we'll see serious vortex disruption through mid-month. I can't post the images here because they are from a paysite, but the Euro ensemble shows the polar vortex retreating the pole by mid-month. The good news is that the heights associated with it aren't particularly low, but that would still indicate a return to a +AO base state, if it occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 When I'm talking about a wave 1 response, this is what I mean: The polar vortex is shifted to the Western Hemisphere, with high heights and warm temperatures located in the Eastern Hemisphere. That's a "wave 1" pattern - where the PV gets dislodged from the pole. A wave 2 pattern has two areas of lower heights and two areas of higher heights. This pattern is also sometimes referred to as vortex splitting. Right now, we have a wave 2 pattern, but it's not classic, with the heights over the North Atlantic muted. Here are the current stratospheric temps in the polar region. There is warm up expected this week with the wave 1 response, but it's not a SSW and it's not going to be long lasting. What's more interesting is that the E-P flux vectors are pointed poleward around mid-month, but they aren't pointed upward, so I'm not sure we'll see serious vortex disruption through mid-month. I can't post the images here because they are from a paysite, but the Euro ensemble shows the polar vortex retreating the pole by mid-month. The good news is that the heights associated with it aren't particularly low, but that would still indicate a return to a +AO base state, if it occurs. whats causing the heights over north america to be muted? Is it the lack of any mjo forcing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 whats causing the heights over north america to be muted? Is it the lack of any mjo forcing? I don't have a great answer for you outside of that the wave 2 forcing originated over Europe and there wasn't a real strong signal for it over the Pacific at the same time. That's why this was only a moderate wave 2 signal (see some of HM's posts in the Winter 2012-13 thread in SNE from mid-November) versus a strong signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 guess we won't be hearing from Parsley tomorrow.... poor guy... at least us eagles fans know we don't have a chance. Giants fans still believe in the tooth fairy as well !!!! NFC East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 guess we won't be hearing from Parsley tomorrow.... poor guy... at least us eagles fans know we don't have a chance. Giants fans still believe in the tooth fairy as well !!!! WTF. This lack of snow is really irking you. Ha? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 ok, back to weather.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 ok, back to weather.... I think it's time to trade in your snow skis for water skis. I may need to cut the grass by mid-month too. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I can only imagine that this is Adam down the road forecasting the day's temp...Mid January: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I think it's time to trade in your snow skis for water skis. I may need to cut the grass by mid-month too. Lol. I got my bike out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Tony's bike pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I got my bike out. What's that white stuff in the background? DOn't get that stuff this side of the States Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 4, 2012 Author Share Posted December 4, 2012 I got my bike out. NOOOOOOOOOooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 What's that white stuff in the background? DOn't get that stuff this side of the States It was imported from the Arctic Ocean this past August, I don't think it had an impact up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 I've been downplaying the sledding outlook at home with a certain toddler... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 i get a feeling Adam sits on his computer at night a just glares at sights like these and laughs like the grinch swooping down and stealing all the toys in whooville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Sweating outside doing yard work. This is great. Embrace the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Sweating outside doing yard work. This is great. Embrace the warmth. No matter how much work you do, You'll never get back that loss to the 'Skins last night. ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 Word around here is that Mt. Holly is working on an SPS for "Significantly Awesome Weather". Precautionary / Preparedness actions include golf, barbecue, and hanging Christmas decorations. I could get used to this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 No matter how much work you do, You'll never get back that loss to the 'Skins last night. ! lol. you are so miserable. Maybe Ruiz could let you borrow some of his drugs to cheer ya up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 4, 2012 Share Posted December 4, 2012 The only "white" irishbri is going to see anytime soon..... I bet that is the look on your face checking out the 240 hour Euro every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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