NorEastermass128 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 It doesn't have a drop (or flake) of QPF in CT next week. Next week isn't t-giving week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Next week isn't t-giving week I meant the week of the 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Confusing when is TDay? 12 days away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 It doesn't have a drop (or flake) of QPF in CT next week. Talking about the week after..The one Gibbs texted us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Confusing when is TDay? 12 days away? Yup. We're cruising through Nov... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Talking about the week after..The one Gibbs texted us decent storm but high heights and no cold air source. Where is the cold air coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Some signs on the models continue to show the ridge building and perhaps a weakening of the PAC jet very late Novie and heading into December. I think patience will be needed....yes weenies....patience as this tries to cool slowly. It's also interesting lower height anomalies continue to hang off the SE coast, similar to the week 3 weeklies. I think people are getting impatient because of the early snowfall. Down in this area, we rarely see anything significant until mid-December. The epic 10-11 winter didn't start until we had 1" of snow with an arctic front on 12/14. A poor pattern in November really means nothing. And this isn't a torch pattern: most days have highs in the 50s. Averages for coastal areas are still well into the 50s. I had a high of 53.7F today, which felt warm, but it's actually about -2F departure. We still have the threat for Nor'easters with the low anomaly off the Southeast coast, as you say, but the threat is for warmer storms with the polar jet being fast and displaced north due to the developing +EPO/+NAO. The Aleutian ridge should develop later in the month, warming the stratosphere and causing cold air to pool in Canada. I think by the last week of November we'll be seeing a more interesting pattern. There are also some hints of blocking near Greenland, especially on the GEFS. Climo still favors rain here in late November, however, as average highs are near 50F. My average high on December 1st is 47F. By January 1st, it is around 39F. So I'd rather have the poor pattern now than a month later when it cuts into prime snowfall time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 decent storm but high heights and no cold air source. Where is the cold air coming from? We're not going to have cold air. The polar jet is not phased in and is well to the north over Labrador. The 12z ECM shows a small pool of sub 0C 850s over the Mid-Atlantic at Day 10 due to the strength of the upper low, but the actual 0C 850 line is over James Bay/Hudson Bay extending towards Newfoundland. This is about the worst pattern possible for an East Coast snowstorm with a GoA low and a +NAO. We're also talking about November 20th, guys. Just because we had an anomalous early-season snowstorm does not mean that climo favors snow around Thanksgiving. The Euro shows a cold rain with temperatures probably ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s, with maybe a few flakes in the highest elevations of the Appalachians. Climo also favors cold rain on Thanksgiving with highs in the 45-50F range, not a blinding snowstorm. Let's be realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 We're not going to have cold air. The polar jet is not phased in and is well to the north over Labrador. The 12z ECM shows a small pool of sub 0C 850s over the Mid-Atlantic at Day 10 due to the strength of the upper low, but the actual 0C 850 line is over James Bay/Hudson Bay extending towards Newfoundland. This is about the worst pattern possible for an East Coast snowstorm with a GoA low and a +NAO. We're also talking about November 20th, guys. Just because we had an anomalous early-season snowstorm does not mean that climo favors snow around Thanksgiving. The Euro shows a cold rain with temperatures probably ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s, with maybe a few flakes in the highest elevations of the Appalachians. Climo also favors cold rain on Thanksgiving with highs in the 45-50F range, not a blinding snowstorm. Let's be realistic. exactly but do not get overly worried about the ten day, it was expected to be like it is. Good signs like Jerry and Scooter said for a gradual ridge poking up into Alaska a trend towards a Neg AO NAO in the long range, plenty of time, way early. Seems pretty typical to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 decent storm but high heights and no cold air source. Where is the cold air coming from? Yeah it's the same storm. Of course with the ensembles you can't tell exactly because it is a smoothed out mean, but is has an inv trough look with finally a closed contour well east on T-Day. Still very very far out and not even worth more than 1 min of anybody's time right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Yeah it's the same storm. Of course with the ensembles you can't tell exactly because it is a smoothed out mean, but is has an inv trough look with finally a closed contour well east on T-Day. Still very very far out and not even worth more than 1 min of anybody's time right now. yeah pretty consistent signal off of all the models for some sort of disturbance but its so far out who knows. ZZZZZZZZZ until TDay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 We're not going to have cold air. The polar jet is not phased in and is well to the north over Labrador. The 12z ECM shows a small pool of sub 0C 850s over the Mid-Atlantic at Day 10 due to the strength of the upper low, but the actual 0C 850 line is over James Bay/Hudson Bay extending towards Newfoundland. This is about the worst pattern possible for an East Coast snowstorm with a GoA low and a +NAO. We're also talking about November 20th, guys. Just because we had an anomalous early-season snowstorm does not mean that climo favors snow around Thanksgiving. The Euro shows a cold rain with temperatures probably ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s, with maybe a few flakes in the highest elevations of the Appalachians. Climo also favors cold rain on Thanksgiving with highs in the 45-50F range, not a blinding snowstorm. Let's be realistic. Hardly ever snows in November..unless you have a freak storm like Weds..actually more common to have temps in the 50's and 60's on Thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 It's freakin' November. If you are expecting cold and snowy, keep smoking the good stuff. This should still be the time where we try to find hints of the winter pattern..not hope for a day 10 snowstorm when the average high is not even under 50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Coming back from indoor this afternoon,,this song came on..and my youngest daughter(7) asked me what it was called and that she liked it..I'm not sure whether to laugh or cry http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xSjlEjpyA9g Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Beautiful night, weather is boring......happy halloweenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Did anyone notice that the airmass coming Tuesday nite thru Friday is below normal? I mean are folks really expecting an above normal pattern coming up? It's anything but after Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Beautiful night, weather is boring......happy halloweenie Nice..Congrats on finally getting Halloween..Happened here last year after the devastating snowstorm,,except they never rescheduled it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Blizz, your daughter has excellent taste in music Dio... RIP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Blizz, your daughter has excellent taste in music Dio... RIP My 9 yr old loves Taylor Swift..but my 7 yr old..seems to have my taste in rock..lol..It's actually a little scary Dio..Holy Diver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Back below 40 here Sushi ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 It's freakin' November. If you are expecting cold and snowy, keep smoking the good stuff. This should still be the time where we try to find hints of the winter pattern..not hope for a day 10 snowstorm when the average high is not even under 50F. And the snow that does fall melts away in 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 I am hoping for a white thanksgiving...they are realistic in the elevated interior of SNE. Though not favored. ORH has a white Thanksgiving about 1 in 4 years. Last one was 2005 though, so its been a while. Previous years were 2002, 1996, 1994, 1989, 1986, 1985, 1978, 1974, and 1971 if we go back to 1970. That is 10 times in 41 years. I am not expecting one this year though given the lack of cold. But we can't rule out that system being just cold enough for some snow in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 How much did ORH get in 1985? In Foxboro it was a sleet fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 How much did ORH get in 1985? In Foxboro it was a sleet fest They only got about an inch that day...but they already had a couple inches on the ground from a prior storm about 2 days before T-day. They changed to freezing rain on Thanksgiving morning after starting as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 I am hoping for a white thanksgiving...they are realistic in the elevated interior of SNE. Though not favored. ORH has a white Thanksgiving about 1 in 4 years. Last one was 2005 though, so its been a while. Previous years were 2002, 1996, 1994, 1989, 1986, 1985, 1978, 1974, and 1971 if we go back to 1970. That is 10 times in 41 years. I am not expecting one this year though given the lack of cold. But we can't rule out that system being just cold enough for some snow in the interior. The snowstorm in 1989 was nuts with high winds and heavy snow in NYC and Long Island. My parents house in Bayside Queens had 4" of snow and I drove to my friends house in Dix Hills for dinner in blizzard conditions. Personally I would like clear and calm conditions here for Thanksgiving to ensure safe travel to family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 I am hoping for a white thanksgiving...they are realistic in the elevated interior of SNE. Though not favored. ORH has a white Thanksgiving about 1 in 4 years. Last one was 2005 though, so its been a while. Previous years were 2002, 1996, 1994, 1989, 1986, 1985, 1978, 1974, and 1971 if we go back to 1970. That is 10 times in 41 years. I am not expecting one this year though given the lack of cold. But we can't rule out that system being just cold enough for some snow in the interior. I'm thinking it's 70/30 right now that we do see one. KFS has been feeling it lately..Ride the lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Did anyone notice that the airmass coming Tuesday nite thru Friday is below normal? I mean are folks really expecting an above normal pattern coming up? It's anything but after Monday I think the odds are much less now. We will be warm starting tomorrow into Tuesday, but it cools off afterwards. That high nosing in this week will help ensure colder wx, especially during the day. But, I think all these early storms have people antsy. November snow is awesome, but November isn't really a winter month. If we happen to get it, some of that is just random luck involved too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Bop yo heads to this..one of the best old skool songs of all time. Fish which is my favorite dish But with no money it's just a wish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Bop yo heads to this..one of the best old skool songs of all time. Fish which is my favorite dish But with no money it's just a wish Old School FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Old School FTW. Nothing like some old skool Eric B..Microphone Fiend I mean how can you not bob your head to this..just classic stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.