Mr Torchey Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 We see an impressive AO NAO fall off the cliff again by Nov 16 according to the CPC site. Another blocking episode coming up it appears. Lets hope so Steve, I want snow 24/7, an active winter with lots of storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 According to Upton climo, I am almost a third of the way to normal snowfall this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Was the storm in March 2010 that this Euro D10 looks similar to the one where parts of SNE were 0.5C too warm at 850? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 We see an impressive AO NAO fall off the cliff again by Nov 16 according to the CPC site. Another blocking episode coming up it appears. Yeah, I've been keying in on that as it fits with the periodicity of the negative phase states vs positive that I have observed as taking place since the middle of this last summer. ...really began in August and busted up the heat dome in that 38th parallel and pretty much fall's downward trend began then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Yeah, I've been keying in on that as it fits with the periodicity of the negative phase states vs positive that I have observed as taking place since the middle of this last summer. ...really began in August and busted up the heat dome in that 38th parallel and pretty much fall's downward trend began then. By the way Tip, congrats on talking about how this last event might be white instead of wet, it might not have worked out in your advantage but still, impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Lets hope so Steve, I want snow 24/7, an active winter with lots of storms! Wel IDK about snow but seems prime for some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Wel IDK about snow but seems prime for some action. These cyclones seem to be well timed with either with extreme high or low astro tides and the moon, had there been any hard research done on the correlation.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 If you're playing in the yard or woods this weekend be aware that ticks are out in full force. Warm weather gets them active looking for a wnter bloodmeal. Took a half dozen deer ticks off the dog and myself today after a stroll through the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 These cyclones seem to be well timed with either with extreme high or low astro tides and the moon, had there been any hard research done on the correlation.? No correlation has been proven. Obviously if it occurs in conjunction it's a disaster. 38, 54,78,92,Irene Sandy. Ash Wed. Saxbys Gale. We especially Boston Cape were lucky Son of Sandy was low astro. Next week is wicked high. Almost a foot higher than Sandy using Boston Harbor as the example, plus the tidal current, speed of tidal change is extreme. This period lasts 4 days with one tide every day very high. It's a good thing nothing is progged .....yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 If you're playing in the yard or woods this weekend be aware that ticks are out in full force. Warm weather gets them active looking for a wnter bloodmeal. Took a half dozen deer ticks off the dog and myself today after a stroll through the woods. Took one off me this week too, got lyme once, dont want it again, have to take a blood test in two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 By the way Tip, congrats on talking about how this last event might be white instead of wet, it might not have worked out in your advantage but still, impressive. On the contrary two nights ago I took a walk amid the swirling masses, cold, serene, peaceful, and no power outages. It was pure beauty in winter power, which doesn't always have to mean harm But thanks for the props. It was the DPs in all areas leading in, and knowing the models (thermally) were under-estimating the cold. I think it was Scott - also - who mentioned some products indicating a wet-bulb ripper; but also, the antecedent -NAO was offering up that condition in the deep layer, where the storm, weakening by the time it struck or not, was still lopping lift over the top. It didn't seem like a hard call. Earlier in the day, before the snow fell N of Pike, there was tree waving NNE wind, it was locked. I'd like to also add the folks should look at the FRH data and understand the layers. The NAM can still be used. Often times its MOS products don't reflect its own grid too well - this time it did with a reasonable grade, albeit not perfect for placement. But the gist of a colder profile during the first 1/2 to 2/3rds of the event was slam dunk when knowing both NAM biases, but also what it means to see something like -1, 0, and +2C at the respective 800, 900, and 980mb sigma levels with .5" QPF. That's snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 These cyclones seem to be well timed with either with extreme high or low astro tides and the moon, had there been any hard research done on the correlation.? Most of the major events since February 2010 have occured in the 26th-30th of the month timeframe. There skips is not a real pattern to how many months it skips in between though. Probably all of these are coincidences sort of like the weekend rule for KU storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 10, 2012 Author Share Posted November 10, 2012 BDR has not had a single above normal departure through the first 9 days of November. Joe has returned. Enjoy the last reasonably cool day before the mild-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Still have a couple of inches snow left..One last morning of sledding before it's wiped out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 The middle and end of week cold shot seems to have gotten more impressive. Highs only in the low 40's..which means upper 30's to near 40 here if correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Euro still has our storm around day 10..NAO looks to crash neg again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Euro still has our storm around day 10..NAO looks to crash neg again. I hope the KFS can keep it's streak alive and score a trifecta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 A lot of us have pointed to T day week as a real start to the beginning of winter type consistency, enjoy the Indian summer days coming up. I saw ice on the Kettle hole pond this morning, sweeet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Still support for a storm after d10 before Tday. Hope that happens otherwise we are in a boring pattern. In other news, we will be in a stable longwave pattern featuring Aleutian ridge and GOA trough. While the Aleutian ridge means cold air may pour into Canada, flow across the area south of 55N is zonal and not so cold. I think we may be in this pattern until other players like MJO convection etc, try to say otherwise. I do think this pattern would be ok in December, but it's too early for SWFE type deals right now. It's not a torch pattern here even if it is above normal, but it is mild in southern Canada. I suppose if there is good news, it's that the Aleutian ridge does try to extend far north which in turn dumps more cold in Canada which maybe tries to push south in December? Perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Still support for a storm after d10 before Tday. Hope that happens otherwise we are in a boring pattern. In other news, we will be in a stable longwave pattern featuring Aleutian ridge and GOA trough. While the Aleutian ridge means cold air may pour into Canada, flow across the area south of 55N is zonal and not so cold. I think we may be in this pattern until other players like MJO convection etc, try to say otherwise. I do think this pattern would be ok in December, but it's too early for SWFE type deals right now. It's not a torch pattern here even if it is above normal, but it is mild in southern Canada. I suppose if there is good news, it's that the Aleutian ridge does try to extend far north which in turn dumps more cold in Canada which maybe tries to push south in December? Perhaps. When does the nao crash negative? When does winter come roaring back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 When does the nao crash negative? When does winter come roaring back? Not anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Not anytime soon. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 NAO goes neggy around nov 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Well the GFS try to lower it a little to -1SD, but EC ensembles not so much. Put it together, and it's not favorable in the near term for a sustained and stout -NAO. When I mean -NAO, I'm talking about ridging into Greenland or Davis Straits, not counting the bootleg ridge in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 The snow has melted in the front yard, grass is really green the "poor man's fertilizer" has done the trick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Well the GFS try to lower it a little to -1SD, but EC ensembles not so much. Put it together, and it's not favorable in the near term for a sustained and stout -NAO. When I mean -NAO, I'm talking about ridging into Greenland or Davis Straits, not counting the bootleg ridge in Canada. The 6z GEFS try to reposition the blocking so that the highest height anomalies are centered near the DS and Greenland towards the end of the forecast timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Gibbs loves the pattern going forward fyi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 The snow has melted in the front yard, grass is really green the "poor man's fertilizer" has done the trick. Yeah, I was thinking I might need to do a fina mowing in some parts of the yard My little bit of snow is still around in the meantime (in the back and side yards...more shaded) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 Gibbs loves the pattern going forward fyi You are a spinner. He said he liked that ridge in Canada when talking about the storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 10, 2012 Share Posted November 10, 2012 The 6z GEFS try to reposition the blocking so that the highest height anomalies are centered near the DS and Greenland towards the end of the forecast timeframe. Maybe, but that pattern is still meh for November. December, maybe a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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