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Approaching Thanksgiving and the Rest of November


moneypitmike

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Yeah it reminds me of 2010 when everyone was trying to bring the cold and snow in by T-day, but we kept saying wait until December...we ended up getting a

This looks pretty similar actually. People might recall we had a lakes cutter on 12/1/10. It finally got cold after that and we missed out on a chance or two before another lakes cutter on 12/13/10...then it settled into cold and faovrable pattern for the next 2 weeks...we got that storm that backed into the Cape on 12/22 and then of course Boxing Day.

I doubt we end up with a mega-NAO block again liek that December, but we don't need one to have chances or be seasonably cold. That block just allowed the far SE US to be cold.

that actually overperformed nicely....looked like a good 5 to 8" type deal but mid/outer cape was 10-13" with a nice death band overhead

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Yeah it reminds me of 2010 when everyone was trying to bring the cold and snow in by T-day, but we kept saying wait until December...we ended up getting a

This looks pretty similar actually. People might recall we had a lakes cutter on 12/1/10. It finally got cold after that and we missed out on a chance or two before another lakes cutter on 12/13/10...then it settled into cold and faovrable pattern for the next 2 weeks...we got that storm that backed into the Cape on 12/22 and then of course Boxing Day.

I doubt we end up with a mega-NAO block again liek that December, but we don't need one to have chances or be seasonably cold. That block just allowed the far SE US to be cold.

Remember how much of the rest of that winter screwed SE Mass while the rest of SNE got crush job after crush job? Wonder if something like that might be in the cards again?
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Excellent@

BigJoeBastardi: ECMWF has major cold pattern developing by end of the month, while US based ensembles twiddle thumbs

What was funny today was I was outside draining irrigation systems and checking my twitter feed on my phone, JB was slamming the GFS as the Euro came out, I thought it showed a huge hit then he tweeted it was East of 0Z. I LOLed what a tool he can be..

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I suppose for those that are worried or interested, the key to watch imo is how the block holds up over the next week. Will it slowly lose ampltitude and the Pacific flow becomes more zonal, or will it continue to look impressive? It's also important not to read too much into every 12 hr shift. Some runs will be more bullish than others. For instance today's EC ensembles weakened the ridge, but is this another shift or a trend? A few days ago the same thing happened and it came back 24 hrs later. The overall state of the atmosphere seems to argue for PAC flow over the next week or so, but beyond that is uncertain. I still think nothing notable comes until we get into December. I'm not really shouting hallelujah yet until we can get something noteworthy inside 10 days.

The good news for those reaching for the noose or sharp object is that the pattern modeled is not even remotely close to last year.

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Yeah it reminds me of 2010 when everyone was trying to bring the cold and snow in by T-day, but we kept saying wait until December...we ended up getting a

This looks pretty similar actually. People might recall we had a lakes cutter on 12/1/10. It finally got cold after that and we missed out on a chance or two before another lakes cutter on 12/13/10...then it settled into cold and faovrable pattern for the next 2 weeks...we got that storm that backed into the Cape on 12/22 and then of course Boxing Day.

I doubt we end up with a mega-NAO block again liek that December, but we don't need one to have chances or be seasonably cold. That block just allowed the far SE US to be cold.

Yep, I remember, and people weren't happy.

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I suppose for those that are worried or interested, the key to watch imo is how the block holds up over the next week. Will it slowly lose ampltitude and the Pacific flow becomes more zonal, or will it continue to look impressive? It's also important not to read too much into every 12 hr shift. Some runs will be more bullish than others. For instance today's EC ensembles weakened the ridge, but is this another shift or a trend? A few days ago the same thing happened and it came back 24 hrs later. The overall state of the atmosphere seems to argue for PAC flow over the next week or so, but beyond that is uncertain. I still think nothing notable comes until we get into December. I'm not really shouting hallelujah yet until we can get something noteworthy inside 10 days.

The good news for those reaching for the noose or sharp object is that the pattern modeled is not even remotely close to last year.

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Remember how much of the rest of that winter screwed SE Mass while the rest of SNE got crush job after crush job? Wonder if something like that might be in the cards again?

probably not.

i foresee a lot of downsloping flow for you as blizzard conditions pound the rest of us in SNE. you'll have these crappy 10dbz returns perpetually regenerating on RADAR right overhead and have like 4 mile vis with -sn. meanwhile everywhere else will be 6 straight hours of 1/8 sm +TSSN and 45 knot NE gusts.

should be fun.

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Could this be one of those winters where storms bomb right near ACK and then track over elbow of Cape ? Inland gets bombed and its 50's and HWW out of SE from FMH east. Seems like its possible

...TOLLAND COUNTY...

STAFFORDVILLE 29.0 726 PM 1/12

TOLLAND 25.5 649 AM 1/13

BARNSTABLE 4.0 827 PM 1/12 HAM RADIO

DENNIS 2.5 829 PM 1/12 HAM RADIO

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This looks pretty similar actually. People might recall we had a lakes cutter on 12/1/10. It finally got cold after that and we missed out on a chance or two before another lakes cutter on 12/13/10...then it settled into cold and faovrable pattern for the next 2 weeks...we got that storm that backed into the Cape on 12/22 and then of course Boxing Day.

Yeah that initial cutter on 12/1 ended up allowing for a large upslope snow event over the 5-6th with 15-30 inches over this area of New England. Here in Stowe we picked up like 3" on the 2-3rd and then 16 inches on the 5-6th.

Then it poured with the second cutter on the 13th, knocking the snowpack back down to like 3-4", only to bring another upslope event behind that cutter.

I remember that period well because we picked up 27 inches of snow in town over the first two weeks of December, but with two big rain events mixed in. Either way, that winter we had snowpack on the ground for like 4 straight months starting December 3rd.

Maybe we will see something similar if we can get some low pressure systems to get stuck/blocked either in the Maritimes or Maine/Quebec. I like the blocking because all it takes is one low to get into position to deliver NW winds and it'll be game on.

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The cutter on 12/5 brought very warm showery conds in 2010. It was my 64th bday so I remember it well.

This prog looks like it has some potential given the Arctic block and what seems to be the migrating vortex southward. As many have said, not even remotely similar to last year. Another bn day at BOS...probably end up with 45/35 and maybe even cooler tomorrow.

00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH240.gif

00zecmwfenshourly850mbTempAnomalyNA240.gif

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33.5 in wakefield center, drop'd like a rock last 90 minutes.

crank up the snow guns new england resorts , crank em up! what great snowmaking weather wow!

Yeah last night was pretty productive with light winds and upper teens at the summit and low 20s at the base.

Tonight should beat that though as winds are now under 10mph at 4,000ft and I'm seeing current wet bulb temperatures ranging from 25F at the base right now to 17F at the summit. Going to be a solid 12-14 hours now of running full tilt top-to-bottom and with calm winds that stuff is just going to pile up.

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I don't know what it got up to here today, but the scraps of snow left on the deck from yesterday never melted.

Going to be a chilly one tonight... already down to 28F up here and the grass is "crunchy" haha.

Is this 29F in Union, CT legit? I would imagine so but that site is colder than everyone else by like 5-10F.

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