mreaves Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I will take cold and dry for now, We need to soak up some of this water anyways and get the ground frozen so its fine by me, Snooze away until Dec 1st I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 When looking at the global state of the atmosphere, the progressive flow (in general) is favored. The AAM progs at least support fast PAC flow next week, but you can still get cutoffs as evident on both models. This was modeled well from days ago. I know it may be OTS, but the pattern in general was modeled fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Progressive flow FTL PAC jet FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 PAC jet FTW Bob what about temps is it a cold run or more seasonable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 When looking at the global state of the atmosphere, the progressive flow (in general) is favored. The AAM progs at least support fast PAC flow next week, but you can still get cutoffs as evident on both models. This was modeled well from days ago. I know it may be OTS, but the pattern in general was modeled fairly well. This.... The -MT torque periods (North America) have been timed fairly well with our +AO / NAO periods for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 This.... The -MT torque periods (North America) have been timed fairly well with our +AO / NAO periods for a reason. Well it's good that I picked up some understanding of the AAM stuff. I did think the chance of a nor'easter was decent actually when I saw the euro op, but when I got around to the other guidance..it started looking like less of a chance. Just speaking for this area specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Bob what about temps is it a cold run or more seasonable? Seasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Seasonable to me. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Interesting to see the Euro caving toward the GFS, which has been the more progressive insister for some time on this scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 upslope machine gets turned on at stowe the day after I leave? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Well it's good that I picked up some understanding of the AAM stuff. I did think the chance of a nor'easter was decent actually when I saw the euro op, but when I got around to the other guidance..it started looking like less of a chance. Just speaking for this area specifically. Well a W. Atlantic low is still doable with effects along the coast but the progressive pattern and individual ensemble members/other models seemed to suggest the OP euro was a little too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 most knew it would happen Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Interesting to see the Euro caving toward the GFS, which has been the more progressive insister for some time on this scenario ... What maybe more intersting is Kevin preparing the noose in his basement this early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 most knew it would happen Noone knew it would happen and def not you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 I was thinking the same thing. You and i have them same idea as to why......vroom vroom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 look at the flow theres no way we are getting anything here next week Noone knew it would happen and def not you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 At least its not a torch pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 short-sleeve Ts and frisbee on Turkey Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Tip says cancel winter because the northern lights were out last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 We'll likely have to wait until the next potential later next month. to overcome the top-down effect in the stratosphere which is just itching to bring us back to a 2011-12 regime. Search and rescue dive teams deployed to the CT River. Vehicle is a 2012 charcoal Dodge Ram pick-up. Driver is bald, last known whereabouts - Best Buy. Credit card receipts verify last purchase was Sarah McLachlan album. Proceed with caution, suspect is insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 short-sleeve Ts and frisbee on Turkey Day? Turkey's in thongs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Turkey's in thongs? yep. and house windows open to let the mild air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 There would be a big uptick in the sales of rope and chairs if winter 2011-2012 was relived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 short-sleeve Ts and frisbee on Turkey Day? Could be quite nice in the interior. Coastal areas, na so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 There would will be a big uptick in the sales of rope and chairs if when winter 2011-2012 was is relived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 The 12z ECMWF was not a good model run. Has a +NAO for almost the entire forecasting period through day 10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 Luca Brazi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 even the ECMWF is having major changes with that from run to run The 12z ECMWF was not a good model run. Has a +NAO for almost the entire forecasting period through day 10: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted November 14, 2012 Share Posted November 14, 2012 even the ECMWF is having major changes with that from run to run Yes, but it shows you that the flip to a -NAO that the models were depicting yesterday in the medium range is definitely not set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.